Should You Buy AGCO Corp (AGCO) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
113.560
1 Day change
0.71%
52 Week Range
121.160
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
AGCO is not a good buy right now for a beginner long-term investor who is unwilling to wait for a better entry. The chart trend is bullish, but the stock is sitting near a key pivot (~113.43) with nearby resistance (116.81), options flow is heavily skewed to puts by volume (bearish/hedging near-term), and recent Wall Street updates include a notable downgrade with a much lower target ($93). With limited near-term upside versus targets clustered around ~$114–$115 and an earnings catalyst coming on 2026-02-05 (pre-market), the risk/reward today is not attractive enough to call a clean “buy now.”
Technical Analysis
Price/Trend: Pre-market ~113.69. Moving averages are bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), indicating an uptrend/mid-term strength.
Momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.265) but contracting, suggesting bullish momentum is fading rather than accelerating. RSI(6) ~61.2 is neutral-to-slightly-strong, not overbought.
Levels: Pivot 113.429 (price is essentially on it). Support S1 ~110.044 then S2 ~107.954. Resistance R1 ~116.814 then R2 ~118.904. From here, upside to first resistance is modest while downside to support is larger.
Pattern-based forward bias (provided): higher odds of a weak week (-5.19% next week) despite a modestly positive month (+2.1%), which aligns with “not an urgent chase.”
**Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals**
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): no signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock recently.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bearish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment read: Open interest put/call at 0.82 is mildly bullish/neutral (more calls outstanding than puts), but the option *volume* put/call at 7.13 is strongly bearish (or strong near-term downside hedging/speculation).
Volatility: 30D IV ~36.54 vs historical vol ~26.93 with IV percentile ~70.4 suggests elevated implied volatility (market pricing more uncertainty). This often happens into event risk (next earnings on 2026-02-05 pre-market), reinforcing a “wait/hold” stance rather than buying aggressively right now.
Liquidity/flow: Today’s options volume (252) is ~504% of the 30-day average, indicating an unusually active day—combined with put-heavy volume, that’s a near-term caution flag.
Technical Summary
Sell
0
Buy
11
Positive Catalysts
1) Technical trend is still bullish (stacked moving averages) and price is holding near the pivot rather than breaking down.
2) Hedge funds are reported as buying (buying amount up 4280% over last quarter), which can be supportive longer-term.
3) Q3 (2025/Q3) profitability metrics improved sharply YoY (EPS and net income up significantly) and gross margin improved to 25.18%.
4) Potential policy/tariff uncertainty reduction noted by UBS as a sector support, and the company has ongoing precision-ag/aftermarket strategy positives (per Wells Fargo commentary).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
1) Options market is signaling near-term caution: extremely high put/call volume ratio (7.13) and elevated IV into earnings.
2) Revenue trend is negative: 2025/Q3 revenue fell -4.73% YoY, consistent with a softer demand cycle.
3) Analyst sentiment has weakened recently: Barclays downgraded to Underweight with a $93 target (tariff/margin and Fendt share concerns).
4) Near-term upside appears capped by nearby resistance (116.81) and several price targets clustered around ~$114–$115, close to the current price.
5) News flow provided is positive socially but not a clear earnings/stock-price catalyst (foundation partnership program).
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.
- Revenue: $2.476B, down -4.73% YoY (top-line contraction).
- Net income: $305.7M, up +919% YoY.
- EPS: $4.09, up +922.5% YoY.
- Gross margin: 25.18%, up +10.15% YoY.
Takeaway: Profitability and margins improved meaningfully, but revenue declined—so the quality of the growth is mixed (better margins/earnings power, but not clear demand acceleration). Next major catalyst is QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-05 (pre-market).
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: ratings/targets have drifted more cautious overall.
- Barclays (2025-12-19) downgraded to Underweight and cut PT to $93 from $116 (key negative change).
- UBS (2026-01-05) kept Neutral, PT trimmed to $115 from $119.
- Citi (2025-11-03) kept Neutral, PT to $115 from $120.
- Wells Fargo initiated Equal Weight, PT $114 (balanced view).
- JPMorgan stayed Overweight, PT cut to $127 from $136 (still bullish but less so).
- Truist kept Buy, PT cut to $123 from $142.
Wall Street pros: improving margins, potential for steadier earnings than some peers, strategic aftermarket/precision ag focus.
Wall Street cons: tariff/margin risk, concerns about long-term Fendt market share growth, and dealer inventory/bloated channels noted (North America) which can pressure near-term results.
Politicians/congress: No recent congress trading data available.
Insiders: Neutral (no significant recent trend).
Wall Street analysts forecast AGCO stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AGCO is 112.7 USD with a low forecast of 93 USD and a high forecast of 125 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
12 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast AGCO stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AGCO is 112.7 USD with a low forecast of 93 USD and a high forecast of 125 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Buy
6 Hold
2 Sell
Hold
Current: 112.750
Low
93
Averages
112.7
High
125
Current: 112.750
Low
93
Averages
112.7
High
125
UBS
Steven Fisher
Neutral
maintain
$119 -> $115
AI Analysis
2026-01-05
Reason
UBS
Steven Fisher
Price Target
$119 -> $115
AI Analysis
2026-01-05
maintain
Neutral
Reason
UBS analyst Steven Fisher lowered the firm's price target on Agco to $115 from $119 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The U.S. economy appears weaker than a year ago with slower GDP growth, higher unemployment, and fewer jobs, but the machinery and industrial sector is in better shape with stabilized demand, lower inventories, and reduced tariff uncertainty, supported by potential growth catalysts such as One Big Beautiful Bill provisions benefiting consumers, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Barclays
Equal Weight -> Underweight
downgrade
$93
2025-12-19
Reason
Barclays
Price Target
$93
2025-12-19
downgrade
Equal Weight -> Underweight
Reason
Barclays downgraded Agco to Underweight from Equal Weight with a $93 price target.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for AGCO
