Should You Buy ADTRAN Holdings Inc (ADTN) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Buy
Latest Price
9.580
1 Day change
-1.54%
52 Week Range
12.440
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
Buy ADTN now for a beginner long-term investor. The setup is supported by a bullish price trend (stacked moving averages), a major near-term fundamental catalyst (Q4 revenue guidance raised materially), and generally bullish positioning in options open interest. While profitability is still negative, revenue growth and improving gross margin suggest operational improvement, and the raised Q4 revenue outlook increases the probability of a positive earnings setup into the 2026-02-25 report.
Technical Analysis
Trend & momentum: Bullish. ADTN is in an uptrend with SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200 (strong trend alignment). MACD histogram is positive (0.0553) but contracting, implying upside momentum is still present but cooling near-term. RSI_6 at 58.65 is neutral-to-slightly-bullish (not overbought).
Key levels: Pivot 9.468 is the key near-term support; price (pre-market 9.77) is above pivot, which supports staying constructive. Upside resistance levels are R1 10.093 then R2 10.478; a break above ~10.09 would confirm continuation.
Pattern-based forward view (similar candles): Modest edge, with model odds pointing to small gains next week (+0.52%) but softer next month (-1.23%), suggesting the stock may consolidate after a run.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock today.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bearish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning & sentiment (2025-11-19 snapshot): Open interest put/call ratio at 0.12 is extremely call-heavy (bullish longer positioning). However, the option volume put/call ratio at 4.79 shows puts dominated that day’s trading volume (near-term hedging or downside speculation). Implied volatility is elevated (30D IV ~62.68 vs historical vol ~93.06; IV percentile ~66), and volume was far above average (today vs 30D avg volume ~28x), indicating heightened event-interest and sentiment sensitivity.
Moving Average Consensus
Sell
3
Buy
8
Positive Catalysts
2026/01/28 05:54:47
- Raised Q4 revenue outlook to $290M–$293M vs prior $275M–$285M (clear demand/execute positive and a strong near-term narrative).
- Uptrend technically (bullish moving-average stack) supports buyers stepping in without waiting for a deeper pullback.
- Upcoming earnings (2026-02-25 after hours; EPS est. 0.04) can act as an additional catalyst if guidance strength translates to profitability progress.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
2026/01/28 05:54:47
- Profitability still weak: Q3 net income -$10.26M and EPS -0.13 (both worse YoY), so execution must keep improving to justify sustained rerating.
- Options volume skewed bearish on the referenced day (put-heavy volume), implying some traders are actively hedging near-term.
- No supportive signal from hedge/insider trend data (both neutral), so the move relies more on fundamentals/earnings than “smart money” flow.
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue grew strongly to $279.435M (+22.72% YoY), indicating demand momentum. Gross margin improved to 38.34% (+5.13% YoY), a constructive sign of better unit economics. However, bottom-line performance deteriorated: net income fell to -$10.262M (-69.23% YoY) and EPS to -0.13 (-69.05% YoY). Net: strong top-line and margin improvement, but profitability remains the key gap to close.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
The provided analyst notes reference “Advanced Drainage” with raised price targets and Buy/Overweight ratings, which appears to be a different company than ADTRAN (ADTN). Based on the data shown here, there is no reliable, stock-specific ADTN analyst rating/target trend to summarize. Wall Street-style bull case for ADTN (from the data given): accelerating revenue/guidance and improving gross margin. Bear case: ongoing losses and the need for consistent profitability improvements. Influential/political trading: no recent Congress trading data available; hedge funds and insiders are reported neutral with no significant recent trends.
Wall Street analysts forecast ADTN stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ADTN is 13.4 USD with a low forecast of 11 USD and a high forecast of 16 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
5 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast ADTN stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ADTN is 13.4 USD with a low forecast of 11 USD and a high forecast of 16 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
5 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 9.730
Low
11
Averages
13.4
High
16
Current: 9.730
Low
11
Averages
13.4
High
16
UBS
Buy
upgrade
$183 -> $197
AI Analysis
2026-01-06
Reason
UBS
Price Target
$183 -> $197
AI Analysis
2026-01-06
upgrade
Buy
Reason
UBS raised the firm's price target on Advanced Drainage to $197 from $183 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares.
Barclays
Matthew Bouley
Overweight
maintain
$176 -> $181
2025-12-08
Reason
Barclays
Matthew Bouley
Price Target
$176 -> $181
2025-12-08
maintain
Overweight
Reason
Barclays analyst Matthew Bouley raised the firm's price target on Advanced Drainage to $181 from $176 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted ratings and targets in the homebuilding and building products group as part of its 2026 outlook. Barclays expects another year of declines in single-family housing starts, saying the housing market "remains far from balanced." This leaves the homebuilder stocks "volatile, with no cycle call to be made," the analyst tells investors in a research note. Barclays believes building products and brokerage names can outperform despite weakness in new residential. It views building products and distributors as more compelling than homebuilders entering 2026.
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