Should I Buy ADEA? ADEA 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Adeia Inc (ADEA) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Buy

Latest Price

18.110

1 Day change

-1.42%

52 Week Range

20.330

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/28

Buy now for a beginner long-term investor. At ~$18.77 pre-market, ADEA is trading near key support (S1 ~$18.40) with strong bullish positioning from Wall Street (multiple Buy ratings and recent target raises driven by the Disney settlement/licensing). While near-term momentum is soft (MACD negative), the bigger-picture trend remains constructive (SMA5 > SMA20 > SMA200), and options positioning is strongly call-skewed, suggesting bullish sentiment.

Technical Analysis

Price/levels: Pre-market ~$18.77. Pivot ~$19.23 is overhead (near-term resistance), with support at S1 ~$18.40 and S2 ~$17.88; R1 ~$20.05. Trend: Moving averages are bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), implying the broader trend is still up, even if the stock is currently pulling back. Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.175) and widening, signaling weakening momentum in the near term. RSI(6) ~37.5 is on the weak side of neutral, suggesting the stock is closer to oversold than overbought. Interpretation: This looks like a pullback within an uptrend. With price sitting close to support, risk/reward is acceptable for an “enter now” long-term buyer, but near-term upside likely improves on a reclaim of the ~$19.23 pivot. **Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals** - [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today. - [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock today.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning/sentiment: Extremely low put/call ratios (OI PCR 0.04; volume PCR 0.15) indicate heavy call-skew and bullish positioning. Volatility: 30D IV ~41.56 vs historical vol ~74.3; IV percentile 14 / IV rank ~9 suggests implied volatility is relatively low versus its own history, which generally aligns with calmer pricing of risk and can be supportive of long exposure. Activity: Today’s options volume (63) is well below 5D/10D average volumes (~123–125), so the bullish skew is more about positioning than a major surge of fresh speculative flow today.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

Analyst-driven catalysts from the Disney settlement/licensing: multiple firms raised price targets recently, citing a new baseline revenue level and potential to accelerate negotiations with other media providers (e.g., Netflix mentioned as an obvious next target by one firm).
Upcoming earnings: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-23 (after hours) with Street EPS estimate shown as ~0.62; a strong print or improved recurring-revenue commentary could re-rate the shares.
Pattern-based forward bias: The provided candlestick-pattern similarity suggests modest positive drift probabilities (not a guarantee), including +4.12% over the next month.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

in the immediate term.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue: $87.339M, up +1.44% YoY (modest growth). Profitability: Net income $8.828M, down -54.29% YoY; EPS $0.08, down -52.94% YoY (notable earnings contraction). Margins: Gross margin shown as 100 (as provided), essentially flat YoY per the snapshot. Takeaway: Top-line growth is modest, but bottom-line pressure is significant. For a long-term buyer, the bull case depends on licensing/settlement-driven revenue durability translating into more consistent earnings power over coming quarters.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: Analysts have been raising price targets and reiterating Buy ratings, largely tied to the Disney settlement and long-term licensing agreement. - 2025-12-29: BWS Financial raised PT to $24 (from $18), Buy; highlights new baseline revenue and strong FCF potential into 2026. - 2025-12-23: Maxim raised PT to $20 (from $17), Buy; notes guidance likely includes catch-up payments and cautions recurring impact may be smaller. - 2025-12-22: Rosenblatt raised PT to $20 (from $17), Buy; suggests Disney outcome may accelerate talks with other media providers. - 2025-11-03: Roth called a post-earnings selloff a buying opportunity; Buy with PT $27, though acknowledges near-term credibility/timing questions around litigation/licensing. Wall Street pros: Strong Buy consensus tone, multiple upward target revisions, catalysts around licensing momentum. Wall Street cons: Some caution that part of the uplift may be catch-up payments and that timing/credibility around certain licensing/litigation items can create volatility. Influential/politician trading: No recent congress trading data available; hedge fund and insider activity described as neutral with no significant recent trends.

4 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast ADEA stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ADEA is 22.75 USD with a low forecast of 20 USD and a high forecast of 27 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

4 Buy

0 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 18.370

Low

Averages

22.75

High

Current: 18.370

Low

Averages

22.75

High

BWS Financial

Buy

maintain

$18 -> $24

AI Analysis

2025-12-29

Reason

BWS Financial

Price Target

$18 -> $24

AI Analysis

2025-12-29

maintain

Buy

Reason

BWS Financial raised the firm's price target on Adeia (ADEA) to $24 from $18 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm says the company's settlement agreement with Disney (DIS) brings a new baseline revenue that should create additional shareholder value. Adeia is now positioned to generate $175M in free cash flow in 2026, which should support a higher stock price, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

Maxim

Buy

maintain

$17 -> $20

2025-12-23

Reason

Maxim

Price Target

$17 -> $20

2025-12-23

maintain

Buy

Reason

Maxim raised the firm's price target on Adeia (ADEA) to $20 from $17 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after the company entered into a long-term licensing agreement with the Disney (DIS). The firm is raising its estimates to reflect the successful deal, but also cautions investors that the sizable increase in 2025 guidance likely reflects substantial catch-up payments, and the future impact on recurring revenue is likely to be far less, the analyst tells investors in a research note. With industry bellwethers Amazon (AMZN) and Disney licensed in the past year, Adeia is in a strong position to expand licensing in the streaming market, Maxim adds.

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ADEA Should I Buy

ADEA Should I Buy

Should You Buy Adeia Inc (ADEA) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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