Should I Buy ACRE? ACRE 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Ares Commercial Real Estate Corp (ACRE) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

5.200

1 Day change

1.56%

52 Week Range

5.910

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

Should I buy Analysis is updated weekly. For real time "Should I Buy" analysis, please sign up to get free answers.

Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: price ($5.26) is pressing near resistance (R1 ~$5.27) and already above the latest Wall St price targets ($4.75–$5.00), limiting near-term upside.
Technical trend is bullish, but short-term is stretched (RSI-6 ~76.96) and risk/reward is unfavorable at this level.
Fundamentals are deteriorating (2025/Q3 sharp YoY declines in revenue/EPS/net income), while insiders are selling aggressively (+165% last month), which is a meaningful negative signal.
Dividend/distribution news is supportive, but it doesn’t offset weakening earnings power ahead of the 2026-02-10 earnings event.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bullish structure with moving averages aligned positively (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) and MACD histogram positive and expanding (momentum up).
Overbought/extension: RSI_6 at ~76.96 signals a stretched short-term move; chasing here is less attractive.
Key levels: Pivot ~$5.038 (better entry zone), Support S1 ~$4.803 / S2 ~$4.658. Immediate resistance at R1 ~$5.274 (price is right below it), then R2 ~$5.419.
Pattern-based expectation: near-term modest upside bias (next week +3.6% probability signal), but negative 1-month expectation (-3.92%), suggesting rallies may fade.
Market tape: S&P 500 was down (-0.85%) while ACRE held up slightly, but that’s not enough to override the stretched technical setup.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Neutral

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning (Open Interest): Put/Call OI ratio 0.18 = call-heavy OI, typically bullish positioning.
Flow (Volume): Put/Call volume ratio 1.01 = essentially neutral to slightly put-leaning on the day (not confirming strong bullishness).
Volatility: IV_30d ~42.34 vs historical vol ~50.13; IV percentile 67.2 indicates relatively elevated option pricing (market expecting meaningful movement).
Activity: Today’s volume (139) is low vs 10D avg (389.7) but elevated vs 5D avg (45.2); open interest is healthy (total OI ~6506).

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Dividend/distribution support: company announced total cash distribution of $0.7000 per share for 2025, reinforcing income appeal.
- Technical momentum remains positive (bullish MA stack + rising MACD), which can support a short-term push through resistance if buyers follow through.
- Earnings catalyst: 2026-02-10 pre-market earnings could spark a move if credit/portfolio commentary improves beyond expectations (EPS est. 0.05).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

reduces “valuation support” from analysts.
with low EPS expectations; any further deterioration could reprice the stock quickly.
increases odds of a pullback toward the pivot (~$5.
or S1 (~$4.80).

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $28.895M, down -34.41% YoY (clear top-line contraction).
Net income: $4.653M, down -179.13% YoY (material profitability deterioration).
EPS: $0.08, down -172.73% YoY (earnings power weakening meaningfully).
Gross margin: 40.09%, up +20.54% YoY (margin improved, but not enough to offset the revenue/earnings decline).
Takeaway: improving gross margin is a bright spot, but the dominant trend is weakening growth/profitability—unfriendly for a “buy now without waiting” setup.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent actions show a mildly improving tone but still cautious: both UBS and Keefe Bruyette raised price targets while maintaining Neutral/Market Perform.
Latest targets: UBS $5 (Neutral) and Keefe Bruyette $4.75 (Market Perform).
Wall Street pros: target increases suggest reduced near-term downside and some stabilization.
Wall Street cons: ratings remain non-bullish and current price (~$5.26) is already above those targets, implying limited upside from the Street’s base case.
Influential trading check: no recent congress trading data available; hedge funds flagged as Neutral.

5 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast ACRE stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ACRE is 4.83 USD with a low forecast of 4 USD and a high forecast of 5.5 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

1 Buy

2 Hold

2 Sell

Hold

Current: 5.120

Low

Averages

4.83

High

5.5

Current: 5.120

Low

Averages

4.83

High

5.5

UBS

Neutral

maintain

$4 -> $5

AI Analysis

2025-11-14

Reason

UBS

Price Target

$4 -> $5

AI Analysis

2025-11-14

maintain

Neutral

Reason

UBS raised the firm's price target on Ares Commercial to $5 from $4 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares.

Keefe Bruyette

Jade Rahmani

Market Perform

maintain

2025-11-11

Reason

Keefe Bruyette

Jade Rahmani

Price Target

2025-11-11

maintain

Market Perform

Reason

Keefe Bruyette analyst Jade Rahmani raised the firm's price target on Ares Commercial to $4.75 from $4.50 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares.

Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for ACRE

Unlock Now

ACRE Should I Buy

ACRE Should I Buy

Should You Buy Ares Commercial Real Estate Corp (ACRE) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

People Also Watch