Should I Buy ABSI? ABSI 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Absci Corp (ABSI) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Sell

Latest Price

3.030

1 Day change

3.06%

52 Week Range

6.330

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/28

ABSI is not a good buy right now for a beginner, long-term investor who is impatient and wants to deploy $50k–$100k without waiting. The setup is currently skewed against a confident long-term entry: the chart is mildly bearish/weak, fundamentals show sharply lower revenue, hedge funds are aggressively reducing exposure, and analyst visibility on near-term execution has worsened (recent downgrade). I would avoid initiating a new position at current levels (~$2.99 pre-market).

Technical Analysis

Price/Trend (pre-market ~$2.99): - Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.0499) and still below zero (bearish), though contracting (selling pressure may be easing but not reversed). - RSI(6) ~40.4: weak/soft momentum, not oversold enough to indicate a high-confidence bounce. - Moving averages: converging MAs suggests consolidation rather than a strong uptrend. - Levels: Pivot 3.125 is overhead resistance; price is below pivot (bearish bias). Near support S1 2.886 (close to current), then S2 2.738. Resistance at R1 3.363 and R2 3.511. - Pattern-based short-term odds: model suggests limited upside over the next month (-0.44% expected), not supportive of an impatient entry. **Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals** - [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today. - [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock recently.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Options sentiment (dated 2025-11-19 snapshot, underlying ~$2.98): - Positioning looks call-heavy: Open Interest P/C = 0.19 (very low) and Volume P/C = 0.04 (very call-skewed). This implies bullish/speculative sentiment in options. - Volatility context: 30D IV ~68.4% vs historical vol ~130.1%. IV percentile 1.6 / IV rank 5.64 indicates IV is very low relative to its own history (options relatively “cheap” vs prior realized volatility), which can attract call buyers. - Caution: call-skewed flow can also be speculative rather than informed; given weak technicals and deteriorated visibility cited by Morgan Stanley, the bullish options tilt alone is not enough to justify a long-term buy.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

Pipeline optionality: H.C. Wainwright added ABS-201 (androgenetic alopecia) into its model and raised PT to $8, maintaining Buy—suggesting perceived upside if preclinical promise translates into clinical progress.
Options market shows strong call skew (bullish sentiment), which can support near-term trading interest.
Technical support is nearby (S1 ~2.886), so downside may meet support quickly—helpful only for short-term stabilization, not a long-term thesis by itself.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Hedge funds are selling aggressively: selling amount increased ~1029% over the last quarter (strong negative institutional signal).
Analyst visibility/risk concerns increased: Morgan Stanley downgrade to Equal Weight with a lower PT ($4.32 from $5.80), citing meaningfully higher risk and reduced near-term execution visibility.
Weak growth profile in the latest reported quarter: revenue down sharply YoY, reinforcing execution/monetization uncertainty.
No supportive news flow in the last week—no fresh catalyst to reverse sentiment immediately.
Technicals remain below key pivot resistance (3.
with negative MACD (trend not yet bullish).

Financial Performance

Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3 - Revenue: $378K, down -77.78% YoY (major contraction; weak commercialization/partnering contribution in that period). - Net income: -$28.706M (loss), improved ~4.77% YoY (slightly smaller loss). - EPS: -$0.20, down -16.67% YoY (worse per-share loss vs prior year). - Gross margin: 100% (common for small/irregular revenue bases; not as meaningful as revenue consistency and operating burn). Growth read: the top-line decline is the key issue; modest loss improvement doesn’t offset the lack of revenue momentum for a long-term beginner-focused buy decision.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: - 2025-12-17: H.C. Wainwright reiterates Buy; raises PT to $8 (from $7) on ABS-201 program inclusion and preclinical confidence. - 2026-01-08: Morgan Stanley downgrades to Equal Weight; cuts PT to $4.32 (from $5.80) due to higher risk and reduced near-term execution visibility. Wall Street pros vs cons: - Pros: Some bullish sell-side belief in pipeline upside (hair loss program potential) and meaningful upside targets from smaller biotech-focused coverage. - Cons: A major firm just downgraded on risk/visibility, aligning with hedge-fund selling and weak revenue trajectory. Influential/politician trading check: - Congress trading (last 90 days): No recent congress trading data available. - Insiders: Neutral; no significant trading trends over the last month.

7 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast ABSI stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ABSI is 7.66 USD with a low forecast of 4.32 USD and a high forecast of 10 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

6 Buy

1 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 2.940

Low

4.32

Averages

7.66

High

Current: 2.940

Low

4.32

Averages

7.66

High

Morgan Stanley

Overweight -> Equal Weight

downgrade

AI Analysis

2026-01-08

Reason

Morgan Stanley

Price Target

AI Analysis

2026-01-08

downgrade

Overweight -> Equal Weight

Reason

Morgan Stanley downgraded Absci to Equal Weight from Overweight with a price target of $4.32, down from $5.80. The latest company and pipeline disclosures have meaningfully increased the risk profile and reduced the visibility of near-term, value-accretive execution, contends the analyst, who is updating the firm's valuation and risk framework and, in doing so, lowering its price target and rating.

H.C. Wainwright

Buy

maintain

$7 -> $8

2025-12-17

Reason

H.C. Wainwright

Price Target

$7 -> $8

2025-12-17

maintain

Buy

Reason

H.C. Wainwright raised the firm's price target on Absci to $8 from $7 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after the company hosted an investor event to discuss its androgenetic alopecia program for ABS-201. The firm incorporated ABS-201 into the company's model. ABS-201 has the potential to increase the proportion of hair follicles in the growth phase versus the resting phase -- a time period when hair shedding occurs, the analyst tells investors in a research note. H.C. Wainwright has confidence in the ABS-201 program based on the strength of the preclinical evidence.

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ABSI Should I Buy

ABSI Should I Buy

Should You Buy Absci Corp (ABSI) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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