Should You Buy Abcellera Biologics Inc (ABCL) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
3.860
1 Day change
-1.03%
52 Week Range
6.510
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
ABCL is not a good buy right now for a Beginner, long-term investor with $50k–$100k who wants to enter immediately. The stock is sitting around the $4 level where Wall Street’s latest target also sits ($4), momentum is weakening (bearish MACD expansion), and there are no near-term news catalysts. Despite some constructive longer-term technical structure (bullish moving-average stack) and bullish options positioning, the risk/reward at ~$4 looks more “wait/hold” than “buy now.”
Technical Analysis
Trend/Momentum: Mixed. The moving averages are bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), which supports a longer-term basing/early uptrend structure. However, MACD histogram is negative (-0.00482) and negatively expanding, signaling weakening near-term momentum.
RSI: RSI_6 at ~39.66 is neutral-to-soft (not oversold), suggesting there isn’t a strong mean-reversion “must-buy” setup.
Key levels: Current ~3.99–4.09 is very close to S1 support (3.978). A clean break below S1 increases downside risk toward S2 (3.759). Upside improvement would look like reclaiming the Pivot (4.334) and then R1 (4.689).
Pattern-based forward odds: Similar-pattern stats imply higher chance of a small next-day dip (40% chance to -2.15%), with better odds over 1 week (+1.86%) and 1 month (+8.46%), but that’s not strong enough to override current momentum weakness.
**Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals**
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock today.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment: Bullish skew. Put/Call ratios are very low (OI P/C 0.17; Volume P/C 0.21), indicating call-heavy positioning and generally optimistic sentiment.
Volatility: Very high (30D IV ~103.6 vs historical vol ~79.2; IV percentile ~67). This suggests traders are paying up for options and expecting large moves, which can cut both ways.
Activity: Today’s volume (3073) is below the 30-day average (today vs avg ~89%), but open interest is elevated vs its average (today vs OI avg ~114%), implying positioning is already built up.
Technical Summary
Sell
8
Buy
7
Positive Catalysts
Revenue growth: 2025/Q3 revenue rose to ~$8.96M (+37.62% YoY), showing improving top-line traction.
Upcoming event: Next earnings on 2026-02-24 (after hours) could act as a catalyst if results/guide surprise positively.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Weakening near-term momentum: MACD is negative and expanding lower.
No recent news catalysts: No supportive headlines in the past week to re-rate the stock.
Analyst overhang: Recent downgrade and $4 target cap near the current price reduces perceived near-term upside.
Profitability still poor: Net income remains deeply negative (loss of ~$57.1M in 2025/Q3) and EPS is still negative.
High implied volatility: Market is pricing big moves; downside breaks can be sharp, especially if $3.98 support fails.
Flows: Hedge funds and insiders show neutral activity—no “smart money” accumulation signal from the provided data.
Political/congress: No recent congress trading data available; no influential-figure buying/selling signals were provided.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue increased to ~$8.96M (+37.62% YoY), which is a clear positive growth trend off a small base.
Earnings quality: Despite YoY improvement metrics, the company is still loss-making: net income was about -$57.12M and EPS -$0.19 (both improved ~11.76% YoY but still negative). Overall, growth is improving, but profitability is not yet in sight—more consistent with a higher-risk long-duration biotech investment.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent change: On 2025-11-07, Leerink downgraded ABCL to Market Perform from Outperform and set a $4 price target.
Wall Street pros view (implied):
Pros: A downgrade to Market Perform suggests “not broken,” but no longer compelling; revenue is growing and the story may be intact.
Cons: The $4 target near the current ~$4 level implies limited expected upside in the near term, aligning with a ‘hold/neutral’ stance rather than an aggressive long-term buy at today’s price.
Wall Street analysts forecast ABCL stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ABCL is 6.67 USD with a low forecast of 4 USD and a high forecast of 9 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
5 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast ABCL stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ABCL is 6.67 USD with a low forecast of 4 USD and a high forecast of 9 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 3.900
Low
4
Averages
6.67
High
9
Current: 3.900
Low
4
Averages
6.67
High
9
Leerink
Outperform -> Market Perform
downgrade
$4
AI Analysis
2025-11-07
Reason
Leerink
Price Target
$4
AI Analysis
2025-11-07
downgrade
Outperform -> Market Perform
Reason
Leerink downgraded AbCellera to Market Perform from Outperform with a $4 price target.
BMO Capital
Outperform
maintain
$5 -> $7
2025-08-08
Reason
BMO Capital
Price Target
$5 -> $7
2025-08-08
maintain
Outperform
Reason
BMO Capital raised the firm's price target on AbCellera to $7 from $5 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares after its Q2 earnings beat. While previous quarters in recent memory have been more challenged for AbCellera as the company has attempted to transition to an internal development clinical biotechnology company, Q2 earnings highlighted positive updates with the addition of '688 as a new development candidate and initial clinical data for '635 expected in mid-2026, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for ABCL
