09927 Overview

Company Expansion: LI AUTO-W is expanding into the robotics sector, focusing on 'embodied intelligence' and planning to develop humanoid robots and AI-driven hardware, according to a Citi Research report.

Valuation Methodology Update: Citi Research has updated its valuation methodology for LI AUTO-W, shifting from a pure PS ratio to a SOTP approach, resulting in increased target prices for its US stock and H-shares.

Market Performance Analysis: The report indicates that high-priced EV models show resilience to rising raw material costs, which may explain the recent outperformance of SERES compared to XPENG-W and BYD ELECTRONIC.

Broker Rating: Citi Research maintains a Neutral rating for LI AUTO-W amidst these developments.

Index Review Announcement: The China Securities Index Company and Hang Seng Indexes Company released the half-yearly review results for the Hang Seng CSI Shanghai-Hong Kong AH Smart Index, which includes the largest 50 AH companies under the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect programme.

Constituent Changes: The index maintains 50 constituent companies, with SANY HEAVY INDUSTRIES and SERES being newly included, while CEA and TSINGTAO BREWERY were excluded.

Future Share Class Determination: The share classes of the companies included in the index will be determined in March 2026, aligning with the monthly share class switching exercise.

Market Data: The report includes short selling data for the excluded companies, indicating significant short selling activity and ratios for both CEA and TSINGTAO BREWERY.

Citi's Outlook on Chinese Carmakers: Citi has a neutral outlook for Chinese carmakers in 1Q26, predicting that BYD, Geely, and Leapmotor may outperform the market due to model updates and strong export growth, while others like Seres and Li Auto may struggle with profit margins and weak sales.

Industry Challenges and Tailwinds: The Chinese auto industry is expected to face five major tailwinds, including increased EV market share and export growth, but also five challenges such as rising costs and cautious retail growth for EVs, leading to a potential decline in wholesale and retail forecasts for FY26.

Stock Recommendations: Citi has recommended several stocks, including BYD, Pony, WeRide, Hesai, Minth Group, and Weichai Power, amidst a backdrop of short selling activity and varying market performance.

Market Conditions: The report highlights a potential end to the price war in passenger vehicles and a favorable phase for commercial vehicle demand, while also noting high inventory levels of fuel vehicles as a concern for the market.

EU-China Tariff Agreement: The European Union has reached a consensus with China regarding tariffs on electric vehicles, requiring Chinese exporters to submit price commitment letters before entering the EU market.

Auto Stocks Performance: Following the tariff announcement, several Chinese carmakers, including BYD, CHERY, and GEELY, saw significant stock price increases, with BYD rising by nearly 4% and other brands also experiencing gains.

Sales Performance: Various automotive companies in China, including BYD, SAIC Motor, and Changan Automobile, reported significant year-over-year sales increases, with BYD leading at 5.566 million units sold (up 21% YoY).

2026 Sales Targets: Forecasts for 2026 indicate ambitious sales targets for several companies, with BYD aiming for 1.5 million overseas units (up 43% YoY) and Changan Automobile targeting 875,000 units (up 37% YoY).

Short Selling Activity: Notable short selling activity was observed across several companies, with BYD and XPeng experiencing high short selling ratios of 26.491% and 33.035%, respectively.

Market Insights: Analysts suggest that new trade-in subsidy policies in China may accelerate market consolidation, benefiting larger companies like BYD due to their scale advantages.

Goldman Sachs Research Report: Goldman Sachs conducted a series of online meetings with various Chinese automotive companies, including major OEMs and suppliers, to discuss the outlook for the auto industry in 2026.

Focus on Overseas Expansion: Executives emphasized the need for accelerated overseas expansion, with plans for new models and local sales channels, while GWMOTOR noted limited price competition in most overseas markets except Thailand.

Profit Pool Contraction: The report anticipates a contraction in China's domestic auto profit pool by 2026, although overseas markets are expected to see growth in new energy vehicles (NEVs).

Stock Ratings: Goldman Sachs rated BYD and XPENG as "Buy" due to their potential to benefit from increased sales in overseas markets, despite overall challenges in the domestic market.