09866 Overview

Stock Performance: NIO-SW (09866.HK) opened 15% higher at HKD43.86, with a trading volume of 214,000 shares and short selling amounting to $88.82 million, reflecting a short ratio of 42.943%.

Financial Results: The company reported a net profit of RMB122 million for 4Q25, a significant turnaround from a loss of RMB7.132 billion in the same quarter the previous year, with earnings per share (EPS) at RMB5 cents.

Revenue Growth: Total revenue for the quarter increased by 75.9% year-over-year (YoY) and 59% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) to RMB34.65 billion.

Gross Profit Surge: Gross profit rose dramatically by 163.1% YoY and 100.8% QoQ, reaching RMB6.074 billion.

NIO's 4Q25 Performance: NIO-SW reported total revenue of RMB34.7 billion for 4Q25, aligning with expectations, and achieved its first single-quarter profit of RMB728 million, a significant turnaround from a net loss of RMB6.5 billion in 4Q24.

Sales Forecast Adjustments: BofA Securities raised its sales forecasts for NIO for 2026 and 2027, anticipating a non-GAAP net profit of RMB381 million for 2026, a notable improvement from a previous forecast of a net loss.

Stock Price Target Updates: BofA Securities increased NIO's target price from HKD49 to HKD52, while also raising the US stock target from USD6.3 to USD6.7, maintaining a Neutral rating due to strong model reserves and controlled operating expenses.

Market Sentiment: Citi expects NIO's 1Q non-GAAP net loss to be limited to RMB900 million and continues to hold a Buy rating, indicating positive sentiment towards the company's future performance.

4Q25 Results: NIO-SW's fourth quarter results were in line with expectations, with preliminary operating profit exceeding forecasts, according to JPMorgan's report.

2026 Sales Guidance: Despite challenges like weak demand and rising costs, NIO's management projects a 40-50% increase in sales for 2026, surpassing JPMorgan's estimate of 30%.

Analyst Ratings: Nomura upgraded NIO to a Buy rating with a target price of USD 6.6, while JPMorgan maintained an Overweight rating with a target price of USD 7.

Short Selling Data: As of March 10, 2026, NIO-SW experienced significant short selling, amounting to $88.82 million, with a ratio of 42.943%.

Nomura's Positive Outlook: Nomura has upgraded NIO-SW (09866.HK) to a Buy rating, citing improvements in the company's business and financial performance, indicating it has entered a healthy business cycle.

Target Price Adjustment: The target price for NIO (NIO.US) has been adjusted from US$8.4 to US$6.6 following the positive assessment.

Margin Forecasts Increased: Nomura has raised its gross and operating margin forecasts for NIO-SW for 2026 and 2027, anticipating a non-GAAP operating profit break-even by 2026.

Citi's Expectations: Citi expects NIO-SW's 1Q non-GAAP net loss to be controlled within RMB900M and maintains a Buy rating on the stock.

NIO's Revenue Guidance: NIO has projected a strong revenue growth of 103-109% for Q1 2026, anticipating car sales of 35,000 units in March, according to a Citi research report.

Market Performance: NIO's stock has seen a significant increase of 15.994%, with short selling amounting to $88.82 million and a ratio of 42.943%.

Analyst Upgrades: Nomura has upgraded NIO to a Buy rating with a target price of USD 6.6, while Citi has set a target price of USD 6.2, also rating it as a Buy.

Sales and Pricing Insights: Even with a potential 33% decline in car sales quarter-over-quarter, NIO's average price is expected to rise by 5.7%, assuming other revenue remains at RMB 2.95 billion for Q1 2026.

Citi Research Forecast: Citi Research anticipates NIO-SW will achieve a gross profit margin of 17.3% in Q1 2026, driven by a shift towards higher-end models and effective cost control measures.

Non-GAAP Net Loss Projection: The broker estimates that NIO-SW's non-GAAP net loss for Q1 2025 will be contained within RMB900 million, despite it being a traditionally low sales season.

Stock Rating and Target Prices: Citi maintains a "Buy" rating on NIO-SW, setting target prices at $47.3 for H-shares and $6.2 for ADR.

Market Activity: As of March 10, 2026, NIO-SW experienced significant short selling activity amounting to $88.82 million, with a short selling ratio of 42.943%.