03998 Overview

Earnings Forecast Adjustment: BofA Securities has lowered its FY2025/2026 earnings forecasts for BOSIDENG by 5% and 9% due to a reduced OEM revenue outlook and slower offline expansion.

Target Price Reduction: The broker has cut its target price for BOSIDENG from $5.4 to $4.6, reflecting a 15% decrease in target valuation multiple.

Factors Impacting Growth: Weaker-than-expected growth is attributed to a warm winter, intense competition, a focus on core winter products, conservative offline expansion, and a decline in OEM business due to tariffs.

Rating Reiteration: Despite the adjustments, BofA Securities maintains a "Buy" rating based on its valuation measures.

HSBC's Forecast for BOSIDENG: HSBC Global Research predicts that BOSIDENG's growth will be hindered due to a warmer-than-expected winter, leading to a revenue growth forecast of only 4% for FY26, down from 10%.

Brand Revenue Growth Adjustment: The forecast for BOSIDENG's brand revenue growth has also been revised down from 14% to 6% YoY.

Short Selling Activity: There is significant short selling activity on BOSIDENG, with $28.77 million in short sales and a ratio of 32.699%.

Rating and Target Price Change: Despite the lowered forecasts, HSBC maintains a Buy rating on BOSIDENG but has reduced its target price from HKD 6.1 to HKD 5.7.

Morgan Stanley Report: Morgan Stanley has identified a list of Defensive Stocks in the Asia-Pacific region, particularly focusing on Hong Kong stocks that offer high dividends, low volatility, and an Overweight rating.

Highlighted Stocks: The report includes several stocks such as China Tower, Bosideng, Midea Group, and various banks like CCB and Bank of China, along with their short selling data and performance metrics.

CMBI's Rating and Outlook: CMBI has assigned an Equalweight rating to China's discretionary consumption sector for 2026, predicting retail sales growth of about 3.5%, influenced by various economic headwinds and a cautious outlook.

Positive Factors and Stock Performance: Despite challenges, factors like the delayed Spring Festival and a recovering real estate sector may support stock prices, with expectations of pressure in the first half of 2026 and potential rebounds in the second half.

Investment Preferences: CMBI categorizes investments into survival, compensatory, and hedging/defensive consumption, recommending companies in these areas, such as LEPU BIO-B and YUM CHINA, all rated as Buy.

Large-Scale Consumption Outlook: The broker is less optimistic about large-scale consumption sectors, although favorable market conditions could enhance their performance, with companies like HAIER SMARTHOME and MIDEA GROUP also rated as Buy.

Company Performance: BOSIDENG's 1HFY26 results met expectations, with a strong outlook for the upcoming 2HFY26, as noted by HSBC Global Investment Research.

Profit Forecast Adjustment: HSBC raised its profit forecast by 2-3% due to favorable weather and new products, maintaining a Buy rating and increasing the target price from HK$5.9 to HK$6.1.

Sales and Profit Growth: BOSIDENG reported a 1.4% increase in sales and a 5.3% rise in net profit for 1HFY2026, aligning with expectations, and management anticipates a 10% YoY sales growth for FY2026.

Sales Performance: Since October, BOSIDENG's offline sales have seen double-digit growth YoY due to reduced discounts, while online sales remained strong during the Double 11 shopping period.

Target Price Adjustment: UBS raised BOSIDENG's target price from $5.2 to $5.8 following the positive 1HFY2026 results, reflecting an increase in the projected PE ratio.

Broker Rating: CLSA maintained an Outperform rating for BOSIDENG, citing an attractive risk-reward profile and a predicted dividend yield of 6.5% over the next year.