02610 Overview

Force Majeure Declaration: Qatalum and Alba, two major Middle Eastern aluminum companies, declared force majeure on March 3-4, impacting their annual production capacities of 636,000 and 1.62 million tons, which represent 0.8% and 2.0% of the global aluminum market, respectively.

Price Surge: Following the force majeure announcement, LME aluminum prices increased by 2.5% on March 3 and 5% on March 4, reaching USD3,418 per ton, the highest level since 2022.

Market Outlook: CICC predicts that aluminum prices may continue to rise due to a growing supply-demand gap, geopolitical tensions from the US-Iran conflict, and the effects of global fiscal and monetary policies.

Investment Recommendations: CICC advises investors to focus on companies like NANSHAN AL INTL, CHINAHONGQIAO, CHALCO, TIANSHAN ALUMINUM, and HUATONG WIRES AND CABLES, highlighting their potential in the current market environment.

Stock Performance Overview: Various Hong Kong stocks showed mixed performance, with ZIJIN GOLD INTL and MINIMAX-WP experiencing significant gains, while others like GUMING and CHERY AUTO faced declines.

Short Selling Data: Short selling activity varied across stocks, with FWD showing a high short selling ratio of 16.999%, while NANSHAN AL INTL had a notably low ratio of 0.135%.

Market Capitalization Insights: The market capitalization at the end of the lock-up periods for these stocks ranges from 21.4 billion to 406.6 billion, indicating varying levels of investor interest and company valuations.

Future Lock-up Dates: Key lock-up expiration dates for these stocks are set between early 2026 and late 2026, which may impact trading strategies and stock performance as these dates approach.

Stock Performance: NANSHAN AL INTL (02610.HK) experienced a decline of 4.21%, with short selling amounting to $19.03 million and a ratio of 10.367%.

Share Placement Announcement: The company announced a top-up placement of 31 million shares at HKD64.5 each, representing a 6.39% discount to the previous closing price, aiming to raise approximately HKD1.987 billion.

Investment Criteria: CICC's report advises investors to focus on aluminum stocks with overseas expansion capabilities and strong growth potential.

Recommended Stocks: Key stocks highlighted include NANSHAN AL INTL, CHINAHONGQIAO, CHALCO, TIANSHAN ALUMINUM, and HUATONG WIRES AND CABLES, with varying short selling ratios.

Aluminum Price Outlook: Citi has raised its three-month aluminum price target to USD 3,400 per ton, anticipating continued price increases due to a widening supply-demand gap.

Profit Expectations: As aluminum prices rise and costs remain low, the profit per ton of aluminum is expected to increase further.

Market Performance: The Hang Seng Index (HSI) fell by 272 points (1.0%) to 26,438, while the Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTI) and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) also experienced declines of 1.7% and 1.1%, respectively.

Active Heavyweights: Major stocks like Alibaba, Meituan, Tencent, and Xiaomi saw significant drops, with Alibaba down 4% and Tencent down nearly 2%, amidst high short selling ratios.

Gainers in the Market: Wuxi Apptec and Chinahongqiao were among the notable gainers, with Wuxi Apptec rising 3.97% and Chinahongqiao hitting a new high with a 3.8% increase.

Notable Movers: Nanshan Al Intl and TYK Medicines-B experienced substantial gains, with Nanshan Al Intl up 14.5% and TYK Medicines-B up 11.1%, both reaching new highs.

Market Performance: The HSI rose by 111 points (0.4%) to close at 25,801, while the HSCEI and HSTECH also saw gains, with trading activity slowing ahead of a long holiday, resulting in a turnover of $169.777 billion.

Resource and Aluminum Stocks: Resource stocks like Jiangxi Copper and Zijin Mining experienced significant increases, while aluminum stocks also saw modest gains, reflecting a positive trend in these sectors.

Consumer Stocks Surge: New consumer stocks such as Mixue Group and Laopu Gold reported substantial increases, with Mixue Group expanding internationally by opening a store in Hollywood, Los Angeles.

Hainan-Concept Stocks Activity: CTG Duty-Free saw a remarkable rise of 15.77%, indicating strong interest in Hainan-concept stocks, with significant turnover reported.