01876 Overview

Liquor Stocks Performance: Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye are rated as "Buy," while Yanghe and Gujing Distillery are rated as "Sell," reflecting mixed performance in the liquor sector.

Beer Stocks Overview: Major beer stocks like Bud APAC and China Res Beer are rated as "Buy," despite experiencing declines, with significant short selling activity noted.

Condiment and Dairy Stocks: Haitian Flavouring and YiHai International are rated as "Buy," while other condiment stocks show a mix of neutral and sell ratings; dairy stocks like Yili and Mengniu Dairy are also rated as "Buy."

General Market Trends: Various sectors, including snacks and frozen foods, show a mix of buy, sell, and neutral ratings, indicating a diverse market sentiment across different food and beverage categories.

Goodwill Impairment Loss: CHINA RES BEER announced a significant goodwill impairment loss of RMB2.79-2.97 billion for its white liquor business, far exceeding expectations of RMB300 million.

Profit Forecast: Citi estimates that CHINA RES BEER's core net profit for 2025 will reach RMB5.1-5.3 billion, which is 0-6% higher than their previous forecast, considering a one-time land sale gain.

Stock Performance Expectations: Following the announcement of the impairment provision, Citi anticipates a positive stock price reaction for CHINA RES BEER, similar to MENGNIU DAIRY's previous performance.

Investment Rating: CHINA RES BEER maintains a Buy rating from Citi, with a target price of HKD38, and is ranked as a top pick in the Chinese consumer sector, ahead of competitors like BUD APAC and TSINGTAO BREW.

Stock Performance Overview: Various Hong Kong stocks showed mixed performance, with notable gains for ANTA SPORTS (+2.365%) and HAIDILAO (+5.822%), while LI NING (-1.875%) and SANDS CHINA LTD (-1.271%) experienced declines.

Short Selling Data: Short selling activity varied across stocks, with LI NING having the highest ratio at 23.224%, while TSINGTAO BREW reported the lowest at 1.075%.

Investment Ratings: Most stocks listed received a "Buy" rating, except for LI NING, which is rated as "Hold," indicating a generally positive outlook for the majority of the stocks.

Market Insights: Citi's estimate for Macau's February gross gaming revenue (GGR) is projected at MOP20 billion, reflecting a 1% year-over-year increase, suggesting a stable gaming market.

Morgan Stanley's Earnings Forecasts: Morgan Stanley has lowered its earnings forecasts for BUD APAC for 2026 and 2027 by 12% and 14%, respectively, while introducing a 2028 EPS forecast of US$0.06.

Impact of Household Drinking Channels: The broker adjusted its average selling price forecasts for 2026-2027 down by 2-3% due to an increased proportion of household drinking channels in China.

Target Price and Rating: Despite the lowered forecasts, Morgan Stanley maintained its Overweight rating on BUD APAC and kept the target price at $9.

Short Selling Data: As of February 13, 2026, BUD APAC has a short selling amount of $57.35M with a ratio of 36.830%.

Stock Performance: BUD APAC (01876.HK) experienced a slight decline of 0.756%, with short selling amounting to $57.35M and a ratio of 36.830%.

Earnings Forecast: HSBC Global Research reported that BUD APAC's 2025 normalized EBITDA was 1% below expectations, while maintaining a consistent dividend policy with an expected yield of 4.8% for 2026.

Growth Strategy: The company aims to reignite growth in the Chinese market, explore opportunities in South Korea, and sustain momentum in India for 2026.

Brokerage Update: CICC has maintained an "Outperform" rating on BUD APAC but reduced its target price from $8.4 to $8.3, citing concerns over sales exposure to the catering channel amid demand recovery pressures.

Revenue and EBITDA Forecasts: BUD APAC is projected to experience a year-over-year decline in revenue and normalized EBITDA for 2025, with estimates of USD5.764 billion and USD1.588 billion, respectively, which is below market expectations.

Market Recovery Expectations: UBS Global Research anticipates a slowdown in sales recovery in the Chinese market, potentially delaying improvements until the second half of 2026, despite raising revenue forecasts for 2026-28 by 2-3% due to expected RMB appreciation.