01768 Overview

Liquor Stocks Performance: Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye are rated as "Buy," while Yanghe and Gujing Distillery are rated as "Sell," reflecting mixed performance in the liquor sector.

Beer Stocks Overview: Major beer stocks like Bud APAC and China Res Beer are rated as "Buy," despite experiencing declines, with significant short selling activity noted.

Condiment and Dairy Stocks: Haitian Flavouring and YiHai International are rated as "Buy," while other condiment stocks show a mix of neutral and sell ratings; dairy stocks like Yili and Mengniu Dairy are also rated as "Buy."

General Market Trends: Various sectors, including snacks and frozen foods, show a mix of buy, sell, and neutral ratings, indicating a diverse market sentiment across different food and beverage categories.

Strong Shipment Data: The Chinese essential consumer goods industry experienced robust shipment figures in January 2026, driven by higher-than-expected Spring Festival demand, although a slowdown is anticipated in March.

Market Competition: Goldman Sachs predicts intensified competition in the beverage sector as companies like TINGYI and EASTROC launch new promotions and products, particularly in green tea and sugar-free markets.

Sector Preferences: The broker favors the condiment and prepared food sectors, citing improved demand trends and supply cycles, while also highlighting dairy producers like MENGNIU DAIRY and YILI for their resilience against cost fluctuations.

Positive Outlook on Key Brands: Goldman Sachs maintains a positive stance on brands such as KWEICHOW MOUTAI and NONGFU SPRING, emphasizing their strong market positions and potential for growth despite short-term cost challenges.

Goldman Sachs Coverage: Goldman Sachs has initiated coverage on BUSYMING (01768.HK) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of $496, based on a projected 2027 PE ratio of 23x.

Market Position: BUSYMING is the largest snack and beverage chain retailer in mainland China, with plans for rapid expansion through a franchise-led model, targeting over RMB90 billion in GMV by 2025.

Consumer Value Proposition: The company offers a consumer value proposition approximately 25% lower than traditional supermarkets, featuring around 4,000 regular SKUs and healthy unit economics with a payback period of 1-2 years.

Market Trends: Goldman Sachs anticipates that discount snack stores will continue to capture market share from kiosks and traditional supermarkets, benefiting BUSYMING's growth strategy.

Travel Growth: The extended Spring Festival holiday resulted in a 19% increase in domestic travel and an 18.7% rise in travel spending, with per capita consumption remaining stable.

Hotel and Baijiu Performance: Hotel performance exceeded expectations, while baijiu sales aligned with forecasts, indicating a positive trend in the hospitality sector.

Stock Market Insights: HSBC Global Research expressed optimism for several companies, including BUSYMING and KWEICHOW MOUTAI, while noting short selling activity in the market.

Short Selling Data: The report highlighted significant short selling amounts for various stocks, with ratios indicating investor sentiment towards these companies.

Research Report Release: China Merchants Securities (CMS) has initiated coverage on BUSYMING (01768.HK) with a "Strongly Recommend" rating, projecting adjusted net profits of RMB2.52 billion, RMB3.39 billion, and RMB4.37 billion for 2025-2027.

Market Position and Growth: The report highlights the efficiency of the wholesale snack channel and anticipates BUSYMING will enhance its market penetration and continue rapid store openings, as the industry consolidates around leading companies.

Quality Leadership: BUSYMING's team is noted for its high quality in areas such as supply chain management, warehouse distribution, expansion, and branding, which positions the company favorably in a competitive market.

Economies of Scale: The report suggests that as the industry benefits from economies of scale, stronger companies like BUSYMING are expected to gain market share and gradually increase profitability.

BUSYMING Debut Performance: BUSYMING (01768.HK) opened at $445, marking an 88.1% increase from its listing price of $236.6, and closed at $400, a 69.1% gain.

Trading Volume and Turnover: The stock saw a trading volume of 7.88 million shares and a turnover of $3.31 billion, with a book gain of $16,340 per board lot of 100 shares.