01698 Overview

Stock Performance: TME-SW (01698.HK) has seen a decline in stock price by 0.364%, with short selling amounting to $7.28M and a ratio of 13.045%.

Market Concerns: Goldman Sachs highlights escalating market concerns, including competition in music streaming, profit margin pressures from non-subscription services, and the potential impact of AI on the music industry.

Valuation Insights: The stock is currently trading near the lower end of its five-year valuation range, prompting Goldman Sachs to view the risk-reward as attractive.

Rating Adjustment: Despite the challenges, Goldman Sachs maintains a Buy rating on TME-SW but has reduced its target price from HKD90 to HKD78.

US Stock Market Performance: US stocks showed mixed results, with the DJIA slightly up by 17 points while the Nasdaq fell by 1.2% due to Nvidia's decline.

Hong Kong Stock Market Opening: The HSI opened 66 points higher after a previous drop, while the HSCEI and HSTECH also saw slight increases in their opening values.

Tech Sector Updates: BIDU-SW reported a 42% YoY decline in non-GAAP net profit, leading to a 5.7% drop in its ADR, while MEITUAN-W postponed its launch in Brazil but opened higher.

Financial Sector Movements: HSBC HOLDINGS and AIA opened higher, while HKEX remained flat, indicating a generally positive trend in the financial sector despite varying short selling ratios.

Market Overview: The HSI opened 1.5% lower at 26,640, with significant declines in tech stocks such as TENCENT and KUAISHOU, which dropped 1.7% and 1.9% respectively.

Short Selling Activity: Notable short selling was observed in several tech stocks, including BIDU and BILIBILI, with ratios exceeding 20%, indicating bearish sentiment among investors.

PPI Data: China's Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY for January showed a decline of 1.4%, slightly better than the previous value of -1.9% and above the forecast of -1.5%.

AI Stock Rally: The AI sector saw gains with MINIMAX-WP rising 11.9% after launching a new programming model, while KNOWLEDGE ATLAS also experienced a significant increase of 16.9%.

Market Performance: The HSI rose by 83 points (0.3%) to 27,266, with the HSCEI and HSTECH also showing gains, closing at 9,268 and 5,499 respectively, and total market turnover reaching HKD217.218 billion.

Stock Highlights: SENSETIME-W and PONY-W saw increases of 2.9% and 2.6%, while HESAI-W surged by 7.9%. Conversely, YOFC dropped by 5.7% after being added to the MSCI China Index.

Tech Sector Movements: SMIC fell by 2.2% despite a significant YoY profit increase, while other tech stocks like TENCENT and BABA-W experienced slight declines, whereas KINGSOFT CLOUD and KINGDEE INT'L saw notable gains.

Auto and Gold Stocks: Auto stocks led the market with XIAOMI-W and BYD COMPANY rising significantly, aided by new EU tariff exemptions for Chinese electric vehicles. Gold stocks also performed well, with several companies experiencing gains of 2.8% to over 9%.

4Q25 Results Outlook: Citi Research anticipates TME-SW's 4Q25 results will meet or slightly exceed expectations, driven by stable subscription services and growth in non-subscription music revenue.

2026 Focus Areas: Key areas to watch in 2026 include competition from Douyin's Soda Music, SVIP conversion rates, ARPU trends, online advertising revenue, concert income updates, and GPM and operating profit margin trends.

Competitive Concerns: While Soda Music's rapid user growth may not immediately affect TME-SW's core user base, ongoing competitive pressures are expected to hinder share price performance.

AI Integration Trends: The impact of AI on music creation and user behavior is a significant trend to monitor, with Citi maintaining a Buy rating on TME-SW's US stock and a target price of US$29.

Sector Divergence: China Merchants Securities predicts significant divergence in the tech and internet sectors between 2H25 and 2026, with strong performance in AI infrastructure and tech hardware, while global consumer SaaS faces challenges.

Investment Recommendations: The report encourages investors to focus on AI leaders and selectively explore opportunities in the consumer SaaS sector following recent pullbacks.

Growth of Chinese Companies: Companies like Pinduoduo, NTES, BOSS ZHIPIN, and TME have shown solid growth and profitability, making them attractive investment options.

Brokerage Recommendations: The broker suggests overweighting stocks such as Alphabet, Meta, Netflix, Roblox, and several Chinese firms, indicating confidence in their future performance.