ZTO Revises 2025 Parcel Volume Forecast to 38.2B-38.7B in Response to Industry Shift Towards Quality Competition
Management Insights: ZTO Express reported a 9.8% year-over-year growth in parcel volume to 9.57 billion parcels and an adjusted net income of CNY 2.51 billion, reflecting a 5% increase. The CEO emphasized a balanced approach to quality and growth, focusing on last-mile capabilities and cost efficiency through technology.
Revised Outlook: The CFO adjusted the annual parcel volume guidance downward to 38.2-38.7 billion parcels, citing moderating industry growth and macroeconomic uncertainties. The company remains confident in its strategy to adapt to evolving industry dynamics.
Financial Performance: Total revenue increased by 11.1% to CNY 11.9 billion, but gross profit decreased to CNY 3 billion, with a gross margin of 24.9%. Operating cash flow rose by 3.2%, while adjusted EBITDA fell by 4.2%, indicating mixed financial results.
Risks and Strategic Focus: Management identified macroeconomic uncertainty and regulatory interventions as key risks, while emphasizing investments in automation and service quality. Analysts expressed concerns about industry volume slowdown and pricing pressures, leading to a more cautious sentiment compared to previous quarters.
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ZTO Express Reports 38.52 Billion Parcels in 2025, Up 13.3%
- Parcel Volume Growth: ZTO Express achieved a parcel volume of 38.52 billion in 2025, reflecting a 13.3% year-over-year increase, maintaining its leading position in the industry for the tenth consecutive year, indicating strong growth potential in the express delivery market.
- Doubling of Reverse Logistics: The company's reverse logistics business doubled in growth, earning greater trust from more platform clients and consumers, further solidifying its market position in integrated logistics services.
- Clear Strategic Direction: At the 2026 National Network Conference, the company clarified its future working philosophy and key tasks, emphasizing comprehensive implementation in service enhancement, network optimization, and efficiency improvement to ensure all operational objectives are met.
- Optimistic Industry Outlook: Chairman Meisong Lai highlighted that the express delivery industry is in a critical transition phase, stressing the need to balance quantity and quality to drive high-quality development and ensure sustainable growth for the company.
ZTO Express Reports 38.52 Billion Parcels in 2025, Up 13.3%
- Parcel Volume Growth: ZTO Express achieved a parcel volume of 38.52 billion in 2025, reflecting a 13.3% year-over-year increase, maintaining its leading position in the industry for the tenth consecutive year, showcasing the company's robust competitive strength and growth potential.
- Doubling of Reverse Logistics: The company's reverse logistics business doubled in growth, gaining greater trust from more platform clients and consumers, indicating ZTO's success in diversifying its services and effectively meeting market demand.
- Clear Strategic Direction: At the 2026 National Network Conference, ZTO outlined its future working philosophy and key tasks, emphasizing the importance of enhancing service quality and optimizing the network while ensuring operational safety and efficiency improvements to achieve sustainable development goals.
- Optimistic Industry Outlook: Chairman Meisong Lai highlighted that the express delivery industry is transitioning from quantity to quality, stressing that ZTO must play a leading role in high-quality development to promote healthy growth and win-win cooperation within the industry.
