Which Quantum Computing Company Has the Best Chance to Create Millionaires: D-Wave Quantum, IonQ, or Rigetti Computing?
Quantum Computing Companies: D-Wave, IonQ, and Rigetti are three key players in the quantum computing sector, each employing different technologies to build their systems, but all are currently unprofitable despite generating sales.
Market Performance: IonQ leads in market capitalization and revenue growth among the three, with a market cap of $21.8 billion and a revenue increase of 82% year-over-year, while D-Wave and Rigetti have lower revenues and higher net losses.
Investment Potential: While the potential for significant returns exists in quantum computing, the odds of turning a $10,000 investment into $1 million over the next 10 to 20 years are considered low for these stocks, with IonQ being viewed as the most promising option.
Analyst Recommendations: Despite IonQ's strong performance, it was not included in the Motley Fool Stock Advisor's list of the top 10 stocks to buy, which historically have provided substantial returns compared to the broader market.
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- Portfolio Dynamics: As of the end of 2025, Amazon's investment portfolio totals $3.5 billion, and while its stake in quantum computing is relatively small, it reflects a strategic interest in emerging technologies that could influence its long-term positioning.
- Quantum Market Potential: Analysts from Boston Consulting Group estimate that the global opportunity for quantum computing could reach between $450 billion and $850 billion by 2040, indicating significant investor interest despite the market being in its infancy.
- Historical Investment Review: Amazon's purchase of 6,671 shares of IonQ stock worth nearly $300,000 in Q4 2025 follows a complete divestment of 854,207 shares in Q3, highlighting its focus on short-term gains and response to market fluctuations.
- Changing Competitive Landscape: With giants like Amazon and Microsoft launching their own quantum processing units, IonQ's market leadership is under threat, prompting investors to carefully assess its future profitability and sustainability of market share.
- IonQ's Technological Edge: IonQ is acquiring SkyWater Technology, which is expected to position it as a leader in quantum computing hardware manufacturing, thereby accelerating hardware iteration and enhancing market competitiveness.
- Quantum Computing Market Potential: IonQ aims to develop systems with over 1 million qubits, which would provide a significant technological advantage in the quantum computing field, attracting investor interest in its future growth potential.
- Alphabet's Financial Strength: With over $400 billion in revenue over the past 12 months, Alphabet leverages its strong financial resources and over a decade of quantum computing R&D experience, making it a key player in the quantum computing sector.
- IBM's SDK Leadership: IBM's quantum computing software development kit (SDK) has been downloaded over 13 million times, showcasing its leadership in quantum computing software, even as hardware competition continues.
- IonQ's Acquisition Strategy: IonQ is in the process of acquiring SkyWater Technology, which is expected to enhance its leadership in quantum computing hardware manufacturing, thereby accelerating hardware iteration and scaling, and strengthening its market competitiveness.
- Quantum Computing Market Outlook: Quantum computing companies are targeting systems with over 1 million qubits, a milestone that will significantly enhance computational power, and IonQ's progress in this area may position it as an industry leader.
- Alphabet's Financial Strength: With over $400 billion in annual revenue, Alphabet can continuously invest in quantum computing R&D, and its new Willow chip effectively corrects errors during system scaling, enhancing its competitive edge in the quantum computing sector.
- IBM's SDK Advantage: IBM's quantum computing software development kit (SDK) has been downloaded over 13 million times, making it the most popular choice among developers, showcasing its leadership in quantum computing software even as hardware competition continues.
- Market Volatility Impact: Technology stocks have experienced a volatile start to 2026, with the Nasdaq Composite showing flat performance primarily due to concerns over capital expenditures for AI infrastructure, resulting in a staggering $1 trillion loss in market cap for big tech stocks in just one week, reflecting cautious market sentiment regarding future growth.
- IonQ's Huge Potential: Despite a 21% drop in IonQ's stock price in 2026, a 12-month median price target of $73 from 14 analysts suggests a potential 105% upside, indicating strong market confidence in its quantum computing technology, especially after achieving a 99.99% fidelity in 2-qubit gates.
- Celestica's Growth Drivers: Celestica has benefited from the buildout of AI data centers, with its stock surging 54% over the past six months, and it expects a 50% increase in its connectivity and cloud solutions business in 2026, significantly boosting revenue, particularly through partnerships with major hyperscalers.
- Optimistic Industry Outlook: Celestica anticipates revenues of $17 billion in 2026, a 37% increase from last year, and if its market value aligns with the Nasdaq index, it could reach $92 billion, showcasing its strong growth potential in the AI sector and attracting investor interest.
- Strong Small-Cap Performance: The Russell 2000 index has achieved an 8% return in 2026, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 1.4%, indicating robust small-cap performance in the current economic climate and attracting investor interest.
- Diversified Portfolio: The Vanguard Russell 2000 ETF's top ten holdings account for only 5% of its weight, ensuring that its performance is not heavily influenced by a small group of stocks, thus achieving stable returns through broad portfolio contributions.
- Favorable Rate Policies: The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates six times since September 2024, with two more cuts expected in 2026, directly boosting profitability for about 32% of Russell 2000 companies, enhancing their long-term growth potential.
- Attractive Valuation: With a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.4, the Russell 2000 trades at a 19% discount to the S&P 500's 25.2, providing an attractive opportunity for investors and potentially driving continued strong performance in 2026.
- Strong Returns: The Russell 2000 index has surged 8% in 2026 so far, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 1.4%, indicating robust performance from small-cap companies and attracting investor interest.
- ETF Performance: The Vanguard Russell 2000 ETF (VTWO), which tracks the index, is also expected to benefit from this strong performance, with momentum likely to persist throughout 2026, further boosting investor confidence.
- Sector Distribution: Companies in the Russell 2000 span 11 different sectors, with healthcare comprising 18.8%, showcasing the diversity of its portfolio, especially compared to the S&P 500 where tech dominates at 32.9%.
- Monetary Policy Impact: The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates six times since September 2024, with two more cuts predicted in 2026, directly enhancing profitability for about 32% of Russell 2000 companies and driving future growth.








