Waste Connections Stock Analysis and Outlook
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1 hour ago
0mins
Source: Yahoo Finance
- Stock Price Fluctuation: Waste Connections' stock has risen 2.60% over the past 30 days but is down 10.34% year-to-date, indicating market caution regarding future growth despite a 36.96% total shareholder return over the past five years.
- Valuation Assessment: With a current share price of $156.11, significantly below the analyst-estimated fair value of $204.32, the market may be undervaluing the company's potential growth, particularly against a backdrop of steady revenue and net income growth.
- Strong Acquisition Activity: Waste Connections has achieved over $125 million in annualized revenues, and its strong balance sheet positions the company well for continued growth and successful integration of acquisitions, supporting ongoing revenue and earnings enhancement.
- P/E Ratio Risk: While the market generally views Waste Connections as undervalued, its P/E ratio of 37.6x is notably higher than peers at 31.3x and the industry average of 21.2x, indicating potential valuation risk if growth or margins soften.
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Analyst Views on WCN
Wall Street analysts forecast WCN stock price to rise
19 Analyst Rating
16 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 155.470
Low
173.11
Averages
205.54
High
221.00
Current: 155.470
Low
173.11
Averages
205.54
High
221.00
About WCN
Waste Connections, Inc. is an integrated solid waste services company. It provides non-hazardous waste collection, transfer and disposal services, including by rail, along with resource recovery primarily through recycling and renewable fuels generation. Its segments include Western, Southern, Eastern, Central, Canada and MidSouth. It serves approximately nine million residential, commercial and industrial customers in secondary markets across 46 states in the U.S. and six provinces in Canada. It also provides non-hazardous oilfield waste treatment, recovery and disposal services in several basins across the U.S. and Canada, as well as intermodal services for the movement of cargo and solid waste containers in the Pacific Northwest. Its residential services include garbage pickup, yard waste, recycling, dumpster rental, bulk pickup, and portable toilets. Its commercial services include business waste collection, commercial recycling, shredding, roll off dumpster rental, and others.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Waste Connections Stock Analysis and Outlook
- Stock Price Fluctuation: Waste Connections' stock has risen 2.60% over the past 30 days but is down 10.34% year-to-date, indicating market caution regarding future growth despite a 36.96% total shareholder return over the past five years.
- Valuation Assessment: With a current share price of $156.11, significantly below the analyst-estimated fair value of $204.32, the market may be undervaluing the company's potential growth, particularly against a backdrop of steady revenue and net income growth.
- Strong Acquisition Activity: Waste Connections has achieved over $125 million in annualized revenues, and its strong balance sheet positions the company well for continued growth and successful integration of acquisitions, supporting ongoing revenue and earnings enhancement.
- P/E Ratio Risk: While the market generally views Waste Connections as undervalued, its P/E ratio of 37.6x is notably higher than peers at 31.3x and the industry average of 21.2x, indicating potential valuation risk if growth or margins soften.
See More
Recession-Resistant Investments in Waste and Infrastructure
- Stable Cash Flow: Waste Connections, the third-largest solid waste company in North America, ensures stable cash flow and ongoing dividend growth through its pricing power in smaller cities and contracted municipalities, with a double-digit annual dividend growth rate reflecting its recession-resistant financial resilience.
- Contract Structure Advantage: The company's residential collection services are essentially non-discretionary, while commercial pricing is often tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) or fuel indexes, ensuring stable revenue growth throughout economic cycles, with landfill capacity in many markets nearing scarcity further supporting pricing power.
- Infrastructure Diversification: Brookfield Infrastructure Partners owns long-duration, mostly contracted or regulated assets across four continents, with approximately 90% of cash flows linked to inflation or regulatory frameworks, ensuring revenue growth even during economic fluctuations, particularly during downturns.
- Data Infrastructure Outlook: Brookfield's ongoing expansion into data centers, fiber networks, and tower investments positions it favorably in the AI build-out, with fixed payments and long-term contracts resembling those of regulated utilities, thereby enhancing its recession-resistant capabilities.
See More
WASTE CONNECTIONS INC: JP MORGAN INCREASES TARGET PRICE FROM $195 TO $210
- JPMorgan's Price Target Increase: JPMorgan has raised its price target for a specific asset from $195 to $210.
- Market Implications: This adjustment reflects JPMorgan's confidence in the asset's performance and potential growth in the market.
See More
Waste Connections Q1 2026 Earnings Exceed Expectations
- Revenue and Profit Growth: Waste Connections reported Q1 revenue of $2.371 billion, exceeding expectations, with adjusted EBITDA of $769.5 million reflecting an 8% year-over-year increase, demonstrating the company's strong market performance and enhanced profitability.
- Core Pricing Momentum: CEO Mittelstaedt highlighted a 6% increase in core pricing, providing visibility for the high end of the 2026 outlook between 5% and 5.5%, indicating successful pricing strategies in a competitive environment.
- Capital Allocation and M&A Opportunities: Management anticipates closing a series of deals with an aggregate annualized revenue of approximately $100 million by the end of Q2 or early Q3, while also repurchasing about 1% of outstanding shares, showcasing a disciplined approach to capital allocation.
- Future Outlook and Risk Management: Despite challenges from rising fuel costs and weather impacts, management remains optimistic about the 2026 outlook, emphasizing that ongoing investments in AI and special waste processing will drive future profit growth.
See More
WASTE CONNECTIONS INC: JP MORGAN INCREASES TARGET PRICE FROM $187 TO $195
- JPMorgan's Price Target Increase: JPMorgan has raised its price target for a specific stock from $187 to $195.
- Market Implications: This adjustment reflects JPMorgan's confidence in the stock's performance and may influence investor sentiment.
See More
Waste Connections (WCN) Earnings Call Transcript
See More
Waste Connections Stock Analysis and Outlook
- Stock Price Fluctuation: Waste Connections' stock has risen 2.60% over the past 30 days but is down 10.34% year-to-date, indicating market caution regarding future growth despite a 36.96% total shareholder return over the past five years.
- Valuation Assessment: With a current share price of $156.11, significantly below the analyst-estimated fair value of $204.32, the market may be undervaluing the company's potential growth, particularly against a backdrop of steady revenue and net income growth.
- Strong Acquisition Activity: Waste Connections has achieved over $125 million in annualized revenues, and its strong balance sheet positions the company well for continued growth and successful integration of acquisitions, supporting ongoing revenue and earnings enhancement.
- P/E Ratio Risk: While the market generally views Waste Connections as undervalued, its P/E ratio of 37.6x is notably higher than peers at 31.3x and the industry average of 21.2x, indicating potential valuation risk if growth or margins soften.
See More
Recession-Resistant Investments in Waste and Infrastructure
- Stable Cash Flow: Waste Connections, the third-largest solid waste company in North America, ensures stable cash flow and ongoing dividend growth through its pricing power in smaller cities and contracted municipalities, with a double-digit annual dividend growth rate reflecting its recession-resistant financial resilience.
- Contract Structure Advantage: The company's residential collection services are essentially non-discretionary, while commercial pricing is often tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) or fuel indexes, ensuring stable revenue growth throughout economic cycles, with landfill capacity in many markets nearing scarcity further supporting pricing power.
- Infrastructure Diversification: Brookfield Infrastructure Partners owns long-duration, mostly contracted or regulated assets across four continents, with approximately 90% of cash flows linked to inflation or regulatory frameworks, ensuring revenue growth even during economic fluctuations, particularly during downturns.
- Data Infrastructure Outlook: Brookfield's ongoing expansion into data centers, fiber networks, and tower investments positions it favorably in the AI build-out, with fixed payments and long-term contracts resembling those of regulated utilities, thereby enhancing its recession-resistant capabilities.
See More
WASTE CONNECTIONS INC: JP MORGAN INCREASES TARGET PRICE FROM $195 TO $210
- JPMorgan's Price Target Increase: JPMorgan has raised its price target for a specific asset from $195 to $210.
- Market Implications: This adjustment reflects JPMorgan's confidence in the asset's performance and potential growth in the market.
See More
Waste Connections Q1 2026 Earnings Exceed Expectations
- Revenue and Profit Growth: Waste Connections reported Q1 revenue of $2.371 billion, exceeding expectations, with adjusted EBITDA of $769.5 million reflecting an 8% year-over-year increase, demonstrating the company's strong market performance and enhanced profitability.
- Core Pricing Momentum: CEO Mittelstaedt highlighted a 6% increase in core pricing, providing visibility for the high end of the 2026 outlook between 5% and 5.5%, indicating successful pricing strategies in a competitive environment.
- Capital Allocation and M&A Opportunities: Management anticipates closing a series of deals with an aggregate annualized revenue of approximately $100 million by the end of Q2 or early Q3, while also repurchasing about 1% of outstanding shares, showcasing a disciplined approach to capital allocation.
- Future Outlook and Risk Management: Despite challenges from rising fuel costs and weather impacts, management remains optimistic about the 2026 outlook, emphasizing that ongoing investments in AI and special waste processing will drive future profit growth.
See More
WASTE CONNECTIONS INC: JP MORGAN INCREASES TARGET PRICE FROM $187 TO $195
- JPMorgan's Price Target Increase: JPMorgan has raised its price target for a specific stock from $187 to $195.
- Market Implications: This adjustment reflects JPMorgan's confidence in the stock's performance and may influence investor sentiment.
See More
Waste Connections (WCN) Earnings Call Transcript
See More
