USA Rare Earth Inc Shares Down, Mixed Options Sentiment
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Mar 03 2026
0mins
Should l Buy USAR?
Mixed options sentiment in - USA Rare Earth Inc (USAR), with shares down $1.55 near $19.32. Options volume relatively light with 24k contracts traded and calls leading puts for a put/call ratio of 0.26, compared to a typical level near 0.47. Implied volatility (IV30) is higher by 2.9 points near 101.28,in the bottom quartile of the past year, suggesting an expected daily move of $1.23. Put-call skew steepened, indicating increased demand for downside protection.
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Analyst Views on USAR
Wall Street analysts forecast USAR stock price to rise
5 Analyst Rating
5 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 17.810
Low
15.00
Averages
22.75
High
28.00
Current: 17.810
Low
15.00
Averages
22.75
High
28.00
About USAR
USA Rare Earth, Inc. is a supplier of sintered neo magnets and other rare earth metals. The Company is engaged in developing a NdFeB magnet manufacturing plant in Stillwater, Oklahoma, and intends to establish domestic rare earth and critical minerals supply, extraction, and processing capabilities to both supply its magnet manufacturing plant and market surplus materials to third parties. It is focused on developing domestic rare earth production that offers sustainable and secure domestic supply of materials critical to key industries. Its vertically integrated approach consists of sourcing rare earth elements (REEs), in addition to other critical minerals such as gallium, to producing finished NdFeB magnets. The Company serve a variety of industries, such as defense, robotics, electric vehicles, wind power, appliances, cordless tools and computing and semiconductors. The Company owns, Less Common Metals Ltd., which is a scaled ex-China rare earth metal and alloy manufacturer.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Concerns Over Conflict of Interest in USA Rare Earth Deal
- Controversial Deal Terms: Representative Zoe Lofgren highlighted that the $1.6 billion deal between USA Rare Earth and the Commerce Department could make the company reliant on the discretion of Commerce officials, raising concerns about potential undue influence that could threaten the company's independence.
- Financing Structure Analysis: The deal includes $277 million in federal funding and a $1.3 billion senior secured loan, with the Commerce Department set to receive 16.1 million shares of common stock and approximately 17.6 million warrants, indicating significant financial control by the government over the company.
- Market Reaction: Following the announcement of the deal, USA Rare Earth shares fell nearly 6% in Friday's trading, while retail sentiment on Stocktwits trended towards 'extremely bearish', reflecting investor concerns regarding the potential risks associated with the deal.
- Conflict of Interest Warning: Lofgren warned that Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick's personal interests related to the deal could lead to serious conflicts of interest, particularly as his support for the deal may promote the interests of his sons, further intensifying scrutiny over the transaction.
See More
Strategic Importance of Rebuilding the Rare Earth Supply Chain
- Supply Chain Reconstruction: REalloys operates the only heavy rare-earth metallization capability in North America in Ohio, planning to build the largest heavy rare-earth metallization platform globally, capable of producing 600 tons of high-purity metals annually, significantly enhancing U.S. self-sufficiency in defense manufacturing.
- U.S. Rare Earth Project Financing: USA Rare Earth secured $1.6 billion in government and private capital to advance its heavy rare-earth mine in Texas, with annual production expected to scale from 1,200 tons to 5,000 tons, strengthening America's strategic position in the global rare earth market.
- Greenland Rare Earth Development: Critical Metals Corp.'s Tanbreez project in Greenland shows a TREO+Y grade of 0.44%, with plans for a $1.5 billion joint venture with a Saudi partner, targeting production by 2028 to fill gaps in the Western rare earth supply chain.
- Apple's Circular Economy: Apple's Material Recovery Lab in Texas uses Daisy robots to recover rare earth elements, achieving a 99% recovery rate by 2025, promoting the feasibility of a domestic rare earth circular economy and reducing reliance on Chinese sources.
See More
Strategic Importance of Rebuilding the Rare Earth Supply Chain
- Supply Chain Reconstruction: REalloys is establishing the only heavy rare-earth metallization capability in North America in Ohio, with plans to convert 600 tons of high-purity metals annually, filling a critical gap in U.S. defense manufacturing and enhancing national security.
- Domestic Mining Chain Development: USA Rare Earth secured $1.6 billion in funding for its Round Top heavy rare-earth project in Texas, aiming to accelerate construction and target an annual production of 5,000 tons of magnets, thereby strengthening U.S. autonomy in the rare-earth sector.
- Global Rare Earth Resource Development: Critical Metals Corp.'s Tanbreez project in Greenland shows a TREO+Y grade of 0.44%, with plans for a joint venture with Saudi Arabia to build downstream processing capacity, targeting production by 2028 to address global rare-earth supply shortages.
- Circular Economy Advancement: Apple is achieving a 99% recovery rate of rare earth elements through its Daisy robot, aiming for 100% recycled materials in all device magnets, promoting the feasibility of a domestic rare-earth circular economy and reducing reliance on Chinese sources.
See More
Opportunities in Industrial Stocks Amid Market Turbulence
- Fluor's Outlook: Fluor's business backlog stands at $25.5 billion, with projected revenue growth of 5% this year and accelerating to over 7% next year, which will restore profit growth, particularly against the backdrop of rising electricity demand driven by AI data centers.
- WM's Stability: As a waste collection company, WM's slow revenue growth is offset by enhanced pricing power amid increasing environmental regulations, and its medical waste business is expected to grow from $14 billion to $28 billion, showcasing significant market potential.
- USA Rare Earth's Production Launch: USA Rare Earth is nearing the completion of its rare earth magnet manufacturing facility in Oklahoma, with initial annual output expected at 5,000 metric tons, potentially reaching 10,000 metric tons, addressing the U.S. demand for permanent magnets with substantial market potential.
- Strategic Value of Rare Earth Resources: USA Rare Earth also owns a rare earth mine in Texas, projected to yield over 300,000 metric tons of rare earth metals, which could generate over $100 million in annual output at current prices, highlighting its long-term growth potential.
See More
Market Outlook for Fluor and WM: Key Insights
- Fluor Performance Review: Fluor's revenue fell by 5% to $15.5 billion last year, impacting adjusted net earnings; however, the company's backlog stands at $25.5 billion, with projected revenue growth of 5% this year and over 7% next year, restoring profit growth.
- Rising Power Demand: Goldman Sachs predicts that AI technology will consume 50% more power by 2027 compared to 2024, driving Fluor's business in natural gas, infrastructure, and power production facilities, particularly in nuclear power plant construction.
- WM's Steady Growth: WM, as a waste collection company, shows strong pricing power and market competitiveness with its 105 recycling facilities and medical waste business, despite slow single-digit revenue growth amid increasing environmental regulations.
- USA Rare Earth's Potential: USA Rare Earth is nearing completion of its rare earth magnet manufacturing facility in Oklahoma, expecting initial annual output of 5,000 metric tons, potentially reaching 10,000 metric tons, entering a market projected to exceed $74 billion by 2031, with significant revenue potential from its Texas rare earth mine.
See More
USA Rare Earth Appoints Semiconductor Executive to Board
- Leadership Expansion: USA Rare Earth has appointed semiconductor executive Dr. Thomas Caulfield to its Board of Directors, aiming to enhance the company's execution capacity in the rare earth and critical minerals supply chain, particularly under government support for critical minerals projects.
- Acquisition and Funding Support: This appointment follows the acquisition of Texas Mineral Resources and significant federal funding awards, indicating that the company is transitioning from project planning to heavier buildout and integration work, which is expected to accelerate production capabilities in rare earths and magnets.
- Market Positioning: USA Rare Earth focuses on building a fully domestic rare earth and magnet supply chain, and Caulfield's addition will help align complex semiconductor manufacturing experience with downstream customer needs, thereby improving project market adaptability.
- Risks and Opportunities: Although the company has not reported revenue and faces funding risks, investors should monitor progress across mining, processing, and magnet manufacturing capabilities as execution milestones advance, rather than focusing solely on short-term earnings metrics.
See More
Concerns Over Conflict of Interest in USA Rare Earth Deal
- Controversial Deal Terms: Representative Zoe Lofgren highlighted that the $1.6 billion deal between USA Rare Earth and the Commerce Department could make the company reliant on the discretion of Commerce officials, raising concerns about potential undue influence that could threaten the company's independence.
- Financing Structure Analysis: The deal includes $277 million in federal funding and a $1.3 billion senior secured loan, with the Commerce Department set to receive 16.1 million shares of common stock and approximately 17.6 million warrants, indicating significant financial control by the government over the company.
- Market Reaction: Following the announcement of the deal, USA Rare Earth shares fell nearly 6% in Friday's trading, while retail sentiment on Stocktwits trended towards 'extremely bearish', reflecting investor concerns regarding the potential risks associated with the deal.
- Conflict of Interest Warning: Lofgren warned that Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick's personal interests related to the deal could lead to serious conflicts of interest, particularly as his support for the deal may promote the interests of his sons, further intensifying scrutiny over the transaction.
See More
Strategic Importance of Rebuilding the Rare Earth Supply Chain
- Supply Chain Reconstruction: REalloys operates the only heavy rare-earth metallization capability in North America in Ohio, planning to build the largest heavy rare-earth metallization platform globally, capable of producing 600 tons of high-purity metals annually, significantly enhancing U.S. self-sufficiency in defense manufacturing.
- U.S. Rare Earth Project Financing: USA Rare Earth secured $1.6 billion in government and private capital to advance its heavy rare-earth mine in Texas, with annual production expected to scale from 1,200 tons to 5,000 tons, strengthening America's strategic position in the global rare earth market.
- Greenland Rare Earth Development: Critical Metals Corp.'s Tanbreez project in Greenland shows a TREO+Y grade of 0.44%, with plans for a $1.5 billion joint venture with a Saudi partner, targeting production by 2028 to fill gaps in the Western rare earth supply chain.
- Apple's Circular Economy: Apple's Material Recovery Lab in Texas uses Daisy robots to recover rare earth elements, achieving a 99% recovery rate by 2025, promoting the feasibility of a domestic rare earth circular economy and reducing reliance on Chinese sources.
See More
Strategic Importance of Rebuilding the Rare Earth Supply Chain
- Supply Chain Reconstruction: REalloys is establishing the only heavy rare-earth metallization capability in North America in Ohio, with plans to convert 600 tons of high-purity metals annually, filling a critical gap in U.S. defense manufacturing and enhancing national security.
- Domestic Mining Chain Development: USA Rare Earth secured $1.6 billion in funding for its Round Top heavy rare-earth project in Texas, aiming to accelerate construction and target an annual production of 5,000 tons of magnets, thereby strengthening U.S. autonomy in the rare-earth sector.
- Global Rare Earth Resource Development: Critical Metals Corp.'s Tanbreez project in Greenland shows a TREO+Y grade of 0.44%, with plans for a joint venture with Saudi Arabia to build downstream processing capacity, targeting production by 2028 to address global rare-earth supply shortages.
- Circular Economy Advancement: Apple is achieving a 99% recovery rate of rare earth elements through its Daisy robot, aiming for 100% recycled materials in all device magnets, promoting the feasibility of a domestic rare-earth circular economy and reducing reliance on Chinese sources.
See More
Opportunities in Industrial Stocks Amid Market Turbulence
- Fluor's Outlook: Fluor's business backlog stands at $25.5 billion, with projected revenue growth of 5% this year and accelerating to over 7% next year, which will restore profit growth, particularly against the backdrop of rising electricity demand driven by AI data centers.
- WM's Stability: As a waste collection company, WM's slow revenue growth is offset by enhanced pricing power amid increasing environmental regulations, and its medical waste business is expected to grow from $14 billion to $28 billion, showcasing significant market potential.
- USA Rare Earth's Production Launch: USA Rare Earth is nearing the completion of its rare earth magnet manufacturing facility in Oklahoma, with initial annual output expected at 5,000 metric tons, potentially reaching 10,000 metric tons, addressing the U.S. demand for permanent magnets with substantial market potential.
- Strategic Value of Rare Earth Resources: USA Rare Earth also owns a rare earth mine in Texas, projected to yield over 300,000 metric tons of rare earth metals, which could generate over $100 million in annual output at current prices, highlighting its long-term growth potential.
See More
Market Outlook for Fluor and WM: Key Insights
- Fluor Performance Review: Fluor's revenue fell by 5% to $15.5 billion last year, impacting adjusted net earnings; however, the company's backlog stands at $25.5 billion, with projected revenue growth of 5% this year and over 7% next year, restoring profit growth.
- Rising Power Demand: Goldman Sachs predicts that AI technology will consume 50% more power by 2027 compared to 2024, driving Fluor's business in natural gas, infrastructure, and power production facilities, particularly in nuclear power plant construction.
- WM's Steady Growth: WM, as a waste collection company, shows strong pricing power and market competitiveness with its 105 recycling facilities and medical waste business, despite slow single-digit revenue growth amid increasing environmental regulations.
- USA Rare Earth's Potential: USA Rare Earth is nearing completion of its rare earth magnet manufacturing facility in Oklahoma, expecting initial annual output of 5,000 metric tons, potentially reaching 10,000 metric tons, entering a market projected to exceed $74 billion by 2031, with significant revenue potential from its Texas rare earth mine.
See More
USA Rare Earth Appoints Semiconductor Executive to Board
- Leadership Expansion: USA Rare Earth has appointed semiconductor executive Dr. Thomas Caulfield to its Board of Directors, aiming to enhance the company's execution capacity in the rare earth and critical minerals supply chain, particularly under government support for critical minerals projects.
- Acquisition and Funding Support: This appointment follows the acquisition of Texas Mineral Resources and significant federal funding awards, indicating that the company is transitioning from project planning to heavier buildout and integration work, which is expected to accelerate production capabilities in rare earths and magnets.
- Market Positioning: USA Rare Earth focuses on building a fully domestic rare earth and magnet supply chain, and Caulfield's addition will help align complex semiconductor manufacturing experience with downstream customer needs, thereby improving project market adaptability.
- Risks and Opportunities: Although the company has not reported revenue and faces funding risks, investors should monitor progress across mining, processing, and magnet manufacturing capabilities as execution milestones advance, rather than focusing solely on short-term earnings metrics.
See More
