U.S. Reschedules Medical Marijuana to Schedule III, Impact on Cannabis Industry
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: May 02 2026
0mins
Should l Buy TLRY?
Source: Fool
- Industry Milestone: The U.S. government's rescheduling of medical marijuana to Schedule III marks a significant advancement for the industry, acknowledging valid medical uses and expected to benefit many cannabis companies in the U.S.
- Rescheduling vs. Legalization: Investors must note that rescheduling does not equate to legalization; while it facilitates research, marijuana remains a controlled substance and federally illegal, particularly for recreational use, which has not been rescheduled yet.
- Tilray's Market Positioning: Tilray Brands highlighted its readiness for U.S. expansion in a press release, calling the rescheduling a 'defining inflection point,' although the actual opportunity to enter the U.S. market remains uncertain and could take years to materialize.
- Investment Risk Warning: Despite investor hopes for U.S. legalization, Tilray's stock has underperformed in recent years, failing to generate positive returns since 2018, prompting investors to adopt a wait-and-see approach to mitigate excessive risk.
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Analyst Views on TLRY
Wall Street analysts forecast TLRY stock price to rise
4 Analyst Rating
1 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Hold
Current: 5.660
Low
8.50
Averages
9.57
High
10.00
Current: 5.660
Low
8.50
Averages
9.57
High
10.00
About TLRY
Tilray Brands, Inc. is a lifestyle consumer products company, which focuses on providing research-backed medical cannabis products to physicians, pharmacies, and patients around the world. The Company operates in four segments, which include cannabis operations, which encompasses the production, distribution, sale, co-manufacturing, and advisory services of both medical and adult-use cannabis. Beverage operations, which encompasses the production, marketing, and sale of beverage products. Distribution operations, which encompasses the purchase and resale of pharmaceutical products to customers, and Wellness products, which encompasses wellness and better-for-you foods and beverages. It offers a portfolio of brands and products across medical and adult-use cannabis, craft beer, spirits, beverages, and hemp foods. Its adult-use portfolio offers a range of products, from flowers to beverages. Its beverage-alcohol portfolio includes a selection of craft beer, spirits, and beverages.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Tilray Brands Stock Fluctuations and Analyst Ratings
- Price Volatility: Tilray Brands' stock surged recently due to U.S. legalization catalysts but subsequently fell below $6 from nearly $8 as investors reassessed the details, indicating market caution regarding short-term prospects.
- Analyst Rating Upgrade: Following Tilray's latest quarterly earnings release, Roth Capital's William Kirk upgraded the stock from 'neutral' to 'buy' while maintaining a $10 price target, reflecting optimism about the stock's future.
- International Market Growth: Tilray's international cannabis sales grew 73% year-over-year, demonstrating the company's successful penetration into markets outside North America, which may support future revenue growth.
- Domestic Market Pressure: The ability of Canadian companies to export products has alleviated price pressure in the domestic market; however, Tilray's beverage unit is experiencing declining revenue and gross profits, and the company continues to report a net loss, highlighting ongoing challenges.
See More
Tilray Brands Faces Challenges and Opportunities
- Market Outlook Positive: The cannabis market is projected to continue expanding, particularly in North America, with the cannabis beverage market valued at approximately $7.4 billion in 2023 and expected to grow to $242.68 billion by 2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of 54.62%, presenting potential growth opportunities for Tilray.
- Diversified Revenue Structure: Tilray holds a leading market share in Canada, with its beverage segment accounting for 20% to 30% of quarterly revenue, and has established a strong brand network in the U.S. market through acquisitions, enhancing its competitive position in the cannabis beverage sector.
- Challenges Ahead: Despite Tilray's leading position in the beverage category, the uncertainty surrounding federal legalization of cannabis in the U.S. remains, and the company's poor financial performance in recent years, characterized by inconsistent revenue growth and ongoing losses, has undermined investor confidence.
- Increased Competitive Pressure: Should cannabis become legal at the federal level in the U.S., Tilray will face competition from cash-rich beverage giants with extensive experience in highly regulated consumer goods, which could threaten Tilray's market share and profitability.
See More
Tilray Brands Faces Opportunities and Challenges in Beverage Market
- Market Potential: The cannabis beverage market is projected to be worth approximately $7.4 billion in 2023 and could grow to $242.68 billion by 2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of 54.62%, presenting significant opportunities for Tilray.
- Revenue Structure: Tilray's beverage segment accounts for 20% to 30% of its quarterly revenue in Canada, and it has established itself as the fourth-largest craft brewer in the U.S. through acquisitions, indicating strong competitive positioning in the beverage market.
- Legal Risks and Opportunities: While marijuana remains illegal at the federal level in the U.S., any changes in the next eight years could benefit Tilray; however, this may also lead to fierce competition from large beverage companies.
- Poor Financial Performance: Tilray has faced significant financial challenges with consistent net losses and inconsistent revenue growth in recent years, and although its forward price-to-sales ratio of 0.7 suggests it may be undervalued, market confidence remains low.
See More
Tilray's BrewDog Partnership Raises Investor Concerns Amid Cannabis Focus Shift
- Partnership Announcement: Tilray's 12-month partnership with BrewDog covers major U.K. festivals, including the Edinburgh Fringe, raising investor concerns about the company's shift towards beer production rather than cannabis.
- Stock Decline: Tilray's shares fell 4% to $5.69 on Tuesday, marking a nine-month low, reflecting investor anxiety over the company's strategic direction, particularly as its stock has dropped 37% year-to-date.
- Market Positioning Issues: Despite the U.S. government's rescheduling of marijuana, Tilray has no THC operations in the U.S., with the CEO acknowledging a strategic pivot towards beer and beverages, which has diminished investor confidence in its core cannabis business.
- Global Expansion Strategy: Following the acquisition of BrewDog, Tilray aims to build a global beverage platform generating $500 million in annual revenue, with the CEO highlighting the company's status as the fourth-largest craft brewer in the U.S. and its significant brand presence worldwide.
See More
Marijuana Stocks Surge Then Fall Back
- Short-Lived Surge: Tilray Brands' stock price briefly rose from around $7 to $8 on April 22 due to the DOJ's plans to reschedule marijuana, but quickly fell back to approximately $6, indicating significant market volatility.
- Market Reaction: The spike is seen as a classic case of 'buy the rumor, sell the news,' as the market shifted from bullish to bearish, reflecting investor caution regarding the cannabis industry's future prospects.
- Rescheduling Impact: While rescheduling moves marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III, aligning it with prescription drugs, this change alone won't benefit companies like Tilray without full legalization, as the current rescheduling only applies to FDA-approved medical products.
- Company Challenges: Tilray continues to face persistent losses and poor performance in its cannabis-infused beverages, and while rescheduling could offer tax relief, the slow regulatory progress necessitates a cautious approach for investors considering this high-risk growth stock.
See More
Tilray Stock Volatility Amid Regulatory Developments
- Stock Volatility: Tilray's stock briefly surged from around $7 to $8 on April 22 due to the U.S. Department of Justice's plans to reschedule marijuana, but quickly fell back to nearly $6, indicating the market's sensitivity to regulatory news.
- Regulatory Developments: While rescheduling moves marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III, it does not immediately open the U.S. market for companies like Tilray, reflecting a cautious market sentiment regarding the implications of this announcement.
- Tax Implications: The rescheduling will exempt Tilray and other cannabis companies from Section 280E tax rules, allowing for regular expense deductions; however, full legalization remains essential for significant business growth, and current regulatory progress is slow.
- Market Outlook: Given the slow regulatory advancements and Tilray's ongoing losses, analysts recommend investors remain on the sidelines with this risky growth stock, especially considering the poor performance of Tilray's cannabis-infused beverages, which could continue to weigh on share prices.
See More
Tilray Brands Stock Fluctuations and Analyst Ratings
- Price Volatility: Tilray Brands' stock surged recently due to U.S. legalization catalysts but subsequently fell below $6 from nearly $8 as investors reassessed the details, indicating market caution regarding short-term prospects.
- Analyst Rating Upgrade: Following Tilray's latest quarterly earnings release, Roth Capital's William Kirk upgraded the stock from 'neutral' to 'buy' while maintaining a $10 price target, reflecting optimism about the stock's future.
- International Market Growth: Tilray's international cannabis sales grew 73% year-over-year, demonstrating the company's successful penetration into markets outside North America, which may support future revenue growth.
- Domestic Market Pressure: The ability of Canadian companies to export products has alleviated price pressure in the domestic market; however, Tilray's beverage unit is experiencing declining revenue and gross profits, and the company continues to report a net loss, highlighting ongoing challenges.
See More
Tilray Brands Faces Challenges and Opportunities
- Market Outlook Positive: The cannabis market is projected to continue expanding, particularly in North America, with the cannabis beverage market valued at approximately $7.4 billion in 2023 and expected to grow to $242.68 billion by 2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of 54.62%, presenting potential growth opportunities for Tilray.
- Diversified Revenue Structure: Tilray holds a leading market share in Canada, with its beverage segment accounting for 20% to 30% of quarterly revenue, and has established a strong brand network in the U.S. market through acquisitions, enhancing its competitive position in the cannabis beverage sector.
- Challenges Ahead: Despite Tilray's leading position in the beverage category, the uncertainty surrounding federal legalization of cannabis in the U.S. remains, and the company's poor financial performance in recent years, characterized by inconsistent revenue growth and ongoing losses, has undermined investor confidence.
- Increased Competitive Pressure: Should cannabis become legal at the federal level in the U.S., Tilray will face competition from cash-rich beverage giants with extensive experience in highly regulated consumer goods, which could threaten Tilray's market share and profitability.
See More
Tilray Brands Faces Opportunities and Challenges in Beverage Market
- Market Potential: The cannabis beverage market is projected to be worth approximately $7.4 billion in 2023 and could grow to $242.68 billion by 2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of 54.62%, presenting significant opportunities for Tilray.
- Revenue Structure: Tilray's beverage segment accounts for 20% to 30% of its quarterly revenue in Canada, and it has established itself as the fourth-largest craft brewer in the U.S. through acquisitions, indicating strong competitive positioning in the beverage market.
- Legal Risks and Opportunities: While marijuana remains illegal at the federal level in the U.S., any changes in the next eight years could benefit Tilray; however, this may also lead to fierce competition from large beverage companies.
- Poor Financial Performance: Tilray has faced significant financial challenges with consistent net losses and inconsistent revenue growth in recent years, and although its forward price-to-sales ratio of 0.7 suggests it may be undervalued, market confidence remains low.
See More
Tilray's BrewDog Partnership Raises Investor Concerns Amid Cannabis Focus Shift
- Partnership Announcement: Tilray's 12-month partnership with BrewDog covers major U.K. festivals, including the Edinburgh Fringe, raising investor concerns about the company's shift towards beer production rather than cannabis.
- Stock Decline: Tilray's shares fell 4% to $5.69 on Tuesday, marking a nine-month low, reflecting investor anxiety over the company's strategic direction, particularly as its stock has dropped 37% year-to-date.
- Market Positioning Issues: Despite the U.S. government's rescheduling of marijuana, Tilray has no THC operations in the U.S., with the CEO acknowledging a strategic pivot towards beer and beverages, which has diminished investor confidence in its core cannabis business.
- Global Expansion Strategy: Following the acquisition of BrewDog, Tilray aims to build a global beverage platform generating $500 million in annual revenue, with the CEO highlighting the company's status as the fourth-largest craft brewer in the U.S. and its significant brand presence worldwide.
See More
Marijuana Stocks Surge Then Fall Back
- Short-Lived Surge: Tilray Brands' stock price briefly rose from around $7 to $8 on April 22 due to the DOJ's plans to reschedule marijuana, but quickly fell back to approximately $6, indicating significant market volatility.
- Market Reaction: The spike is seen as a classic case of 'buy the rumor, sell the news,' as the market shifted from bullish to bearish, reflecting investor caution regarding the cannabis industry's future prospects.
- Rescheduling Impact: While rescheduling moves marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III, aligning it with prescription drugs, this change alone won't benefit companies like Tilray without full legalization, as the current rescheduling only applies to FDA-approved medical products.
- Company Challenges: Tilray continues to face persistent losses and poor performance in its cannabis-infused beverages, and while rescheduling could offer tax relief, the slow regulatory progress necessitates a cautious approach for investors considering this high-risk growth stock.
See More
Tilray Stock Volatility Amid Regulatory Developments
- Stock Volatility: Tilray's stock briefly surged from around $7 to $8 on April 22 due to the U.S. Department of Justice's plans to reschedule marijuana, but quickly fell back to nearly $6, indicating the market's sensitivity to regulatory news.
- Regulatory Developments: While rescheduling moves marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III, it does not immediately open the U.S. market for companies like Tilray, reflecting a cautious market sentiment regarding the implications of this announcement.
- Tax Implications: The rescheduling will exempt Tilray and other cannabis companies from Section 280E tax rules, allowing for regular expense deductions; however, full legalization remains essential for significant business growth, and current regulatory progress is slow.
- Market Outlook: Given the slow regulatory advancements and Tilray's ongoing losses, analysts recommend investors remain on the sidelines with this risky growth stock, especially considering the poor performance of Tilray's cannabis-infused beverages, which could continue to weigh on share prices.
See More
