Truist Lowers AvalonBay Price Target to $205 While Maintaining Buy Rating
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Dec 02 2025
0mins
Should l Buy AVB?
Truist analyst Michael Lewis lowered the firm's price target on AvalonBay to $205 from $218 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Apartment fundamentals appear to be softening a little more into year-end than previously expected, and the firm is forecasting more conservative 2026 same-store revenue growth across its apartment REIT coverage universe, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Truist adds however that it is still projecting positive same-store revenue and net operating income growth for AvalonBay this year and next.
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Analyst Views on AVB
Wall Street analysts forecast AVB stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AVB is 200.71 USD with a low forecast of 176.90 USD and a high forecast of 222.50 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
16 Analyst Rating
6 Buy
10 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 177.810
Low
176.90
Averages
200.71
High
222.50
Current: 177.810
Low
176.90
Averages
200.71
High
222.50
About AVB
AvalonBay Communities, Inc. is a real estate investment trust (REIT). The Company develops, redevelops, acquires and manages apartment communities in metropolitan areas in New England, the New York/New Jersey Metro area, the Mid-Atlantic, the Pacific Northwest, and Northern and Southern California, as well as in the Company's expansion regions of Raleigh-Durham and Charlotte, North Carolina, Southeast Florida, Dallas and Austin, Texas, and Denver, Colorado. The Company focuses on metropolitan areas in these regions. The Company's segments include Same Store, Other Stabilized and Development/Redevelopment. The Company owns or holds a direct or indirect ownership interest in operating apartment communities containing apartment homes in 11 states and the District of Columbia. The Company operates under four core brands, which include Avalon, AVA, eaves by Avalon, and Kanso. Its core Avalon brand focuses on upscale apartment living and high-end amenities and services.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Performance Insights: AvalonBay reported a 2.1% overall revenue growth for 2025, with a resident retention rate at a historic low of 41%, indicating successful portfolio optimization and enhanced market competitiveness.
- Capital Management: The company raised $2.4 billion in capital at an initial cost of 5% during 2025, while repurchasing nearly $490 million in shares at an average price of $182 per share, showcasing strong capital management capabilities.
- Future Outlook: Revenue is forecasted to grow modestly by 1.4% in 2026, despite challenges from rising construction costs and tax abatement policies, with management expressing optimism about market improvement in the second half of the year.
- Dividend Increase: The Board approved an increase in the quarterly dividend to $1.78 per share, a 1.7% rise from the previous year, reflecting the company's confidence in future cash flows and commitment to shareholder returns.
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- Earnings Decline: AvalonBay's Q4 2025 EPS dropped to $1.17, a 40.9% decrease from $1.98 in Q4 2024, indicating significant pressure on profitability that may affect investor confidence moving forward.
- Funds from Operations: While FFO per share increased by 6.5% to $2.80, Core FFO only rose by 1.8% to $2.85, reflecting a lack of growth in core business profitability, which could impact future capital allocation decisions.
- Development Expansion: The company completed the development of two new communities with a total capital investment of $287 million, adding 612 apartment units, demonstrating ongoing commitment to market expansion aimed at enhancing long-term growth potential.
- Dividend Increase: The Board declared a Q1 2026 dividend of $1.78 per share, a 1.7% increase over the previous quarter, indicating strong cash flow management despite profitability pressures, and a commitment to returning value to shareholders.
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- Market Challenges: Despite the upcoming earnings report, AvalonBay continues to face persistent challenges in the apartment market, which may impact its future growth potential and investor confidence, particularly in a high inflation and interest rate environment.
- Guidance Revision: AvalonBay has recently revised down its midpoint guidance for core FFO growth, which could raise concerns about its profitability and affect investor sentiment towards its stock.
- Rating Changes: Following the Q3 earnings season, Barclays upgraded AvalonBay while downgrading Camden Property, reflecting market divergence in the performance outlook of different Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), potentially influencing investor asset allocation strategies.
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AvalonBay Communities Q4 2025 Earnings Call Insights
- Performance Insights: AvalonBay reported a 2.1% overall revenue growth for 2025, with a resident retention rate at a historic low of 41%, indicating successful portfolio optimization and enhanced market competitiveness.
- Capital Management: The company raised $2.4 billion in capital at an initial cost of 5% during 2025, while repurchasing nearly $490 million in shares at an average price of $182 per share, showcasing strong capital management capabilities.
- Future Outlook: Revenue is forecasted to grow modestly by 1.4% in 2026, despite challenges from rising construction costs and tax abatement policies, with management expressing optimism about market improvement in the second half of the year.
- Dividend Increase: The Board approved an increase in the quarterly dividend to $1.78 per share, a 1.7% rise from the previous year, reflecting the company's confidence in future cash flows and commitment to shareholder returns.
See More
AvalonBay Reports Q4 2025 Earnings: EPS Down 40.9%
- Earnings Decline: AvalonBay's Q4 2025 EPS dropped to $1.17, a 40.9% decrease from $1.98 in Q4 2024, indicating significant pressure on profitability that may affect investor confidence moving forward.
- Funds from Operations: While FFO per share increased by 6.5% to $2.80, Core FFO only rose by 1.8% to $2.85, reflecting a lack of growth in core business profitability, which could impact future capital allocation decisions.
- Development Expansion: The company completed the development of two new communities with a total capital investment of $287 million, adding 612 apartment units, demonstrating ongoing commitment to market expansion aimed at enhancing long-term growth potential.
- Dividend Increase: The Board declared a Q1 2026 dividend of $1.78 per share, a 1.7% increase over the previous quarter, indicating strong cash flow management despite profitability pressures, and a commitment to returning value to shareholders.
See More
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Market Trends: The software market is experiencing a significant selloff, indicating a downturn in investor confidence.
Company Focus: Anthropic, a key player in the AI sector, is highlighted amidst the broader market challenges.
See More
AvalonBay Communities to Announce Q4 Earnings on February 4
- Earnings Announcement: AvalonBay Communities (AVB) is set to release its Q4 earnings report on February 4, with consensus estimates predicting a Funds From Operations (FFO) of $2.86 per share and revenue of $765.92 million, indicating significant market interest in its financial performance.
- Market Challenges: Despite the upcoming earnings report, AvalonBay continues to face persistent challenges in the apartment market, which may impact its future growth potential and investor confidence, particularly in a high inflation and interest rate environment.
- Guidance Revision: AvalonBay has recently revised down its midpoint guidance for core FFO growth, which could raise concerns about its profitability and affect investor sentiment towards its stock.
- Rating Changes: Following the Q3 earnings season, Barclays upgraded AvalonBay while downgrading Camden Property, reflecting market divergence in the performance outlook of different Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), potentially influencing investor asset allocation strategies.
See More
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Market Volatility: Last week saw increased volatility in equities, with the S&P 500 ending slightly up and the Nasdaq Composite slightly down after a steady interest rate announcement by the Federal Open Market Committee.
Microsoft's Earnings Impact: Microsoft experienced a significant drop of 10% in its stock value, resulting in a loss of $357 billion in market capitalization following a disappointing earnings report.
Silver Market Collapse: The silver market faced a dramatic decline, falling 31% in a single day, attributed to the nomination of hawkish Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair and a prior 50% increase in value this year.
Overall Economic Sentiment: The combination of these events reflects a turbulent economic sentiment, with investors reacting to both corporate earnings and shifts in monetary policy.
See More
U.S. Stock Market Eyes Upcoming Earnings Reports
- Earnings Outlook: Next week, earnings reports from tech giants Alphabet and Amazon are highly anticipated, especially after Microsoft's report led to a 10% stock drop despite beating expectations, indicating a shift in investor scrutiny towards profitability and growth metrics.
- Job Cuts and Efficiency: Amazon announced a restructuring that will eliminate 16,000 jobs, adding to the 14,000 cuts made in October, resulting in a 10% reduction in its corporate and tech workforce, with CEO Andy Jassy emphasizing that AI-driven efficiency gains will significantly impact operational costs moving forward.
- Labor Market Insights: A crucial jobs report is set to be released next Friday, alongside the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), providing investors with insights into the labor market, particularly after the Fed indicated an improving economic outlook, which may alter interest rate expectations.
- Government Shutdown Risks: The market is also wary of a potential partial government shutdown, as a planned Senate vote on funding has stalled, despite a strong January performance; this uncertainty could lead to increased volatility, prompting investors to remain cautious in their strategies.
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