Truist Lowers AvalonBay Price Target to $205 While Maintaining Buy Rating
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Dec 02 2025
0mins
Should l Buy AVB?
Truist analyst Michael Lewis lowered the firm's price target on AvalonBay to $205 from $218 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Apartment fundamentals appear to be softening a little more into year-end than previously expected, and the firm is forecasting more conservative 2026 same-store revenue growth across its apartment REIT coverage universe, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Truist adds however that it is still projecting positive same-store revenue and net operating income growth for AvalonBay this year and next.
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Analyst Views on AVB
Wall Street analysts forecast AVB stock price to rise
16 Analyst Rating
6 Buy
10 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 179.670
Low
176.90
Averages
200.71
High
222.50
Current: 179.670
Low
176.90
Averages
200.71
High
222.50
About AVB
AvalonBay Communities, Inc. is a real estate investment trust (REIT). The Company develops, redevelops, acquires and manages apartment communities in metropolitan areas in New England, the New York/New Jersey Metro area, the Mid-Atlantic, the Pacific Northwest, and Northern and Southern California, as well as in the Company's expansion regions of Raleigh-Durham and Charlotte, North Carolina, Southeast Florida, Dallas and Austin, Texas, and Denver, Colorado. The Company focuses on metropolitan areas in these regions. The Company's segments include Same Store, Other Stabilized and Development/Redevelopment. The Company owns or holds a direct or indirect ownership interest in operating apartment communities containing apartment homes in 11 states and the District of Columbia. The Company operates under four core brands, which include Avalon, AVA, eaves by Avalon, and Kanso. Its core Avalon brand focuses on upscale apartment living and high-end amenities and services.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
AvalonBay CEO to Participate in Citi Global Property CEO Conference
- Management Participation: AvalonBay's CEO Benjamin W. Schall and management team will participate in the Citi Global Property CEO Conference on March 2, 2026, where they are expected to discuss the company's operating environment, investment strategies, and financial matters, thereby enhancing investor confidence in the company's future prospects.
- Operational Metrics Improvement: As of February 2026, AvalonBay's physical occupancy increased by 20 basis points from December, while the Like-Term Effective Rent Change improved from -0.5% to +0.5%, indicating a positive performance in the market recovery that could drive future revenue growth.
- Stock Repurchase Program: The company repurchased $112.8 million of common stock in 2026 and terminated its 2025 repurchase program, authorizing a new $1 billion repurchase plan, reflecting confidence in its stock value and potentially enhancing shareholder returns.
- Disposition Activity: AvalonBay has closed the sale of two communities, generating $270 million in gross proceeds, and is set to sell two additional communities in the first half of 2026, which is expected to further optimize its asset portfolio and enhance financial flexibility.
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Bozzuto and Invesco Partner for $1 Billion Investment in Multifamily Assets
- Investment Strategy: Bozzuto Group is partnering with Invesco to launch a $1 billion investment initiative focused on acquiring older multifamily assets on the East Coast, aiming to enhance their market competitiveness through renovations and capitalize on potential value growth in the current market environment.
- Market Dynamics: Despite facing challenges from oversupply, Bozzuto believes this phenomenon is temporary, with expectations that vacancy rates will gradually dissipate by 2026, reflecting strong demand for rentals and future development potential.
- Cost Advantage: Acquiring existing buildings is typically priced 10% to 20% below new construction costs, allowing Bozzuto to enter the market quickly while avoiding cumbersome regulatory processes, thereby accelerating project implementation and enhancing investment returns.
- Investor Confidence: According to Berkadia's survey, 87% of investors plan to moderately or aggressively expand their multifamily portfolios this year, demonstrating cautious optimism about the multifamily sector despite ongoing challenges.
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AvalonBay Communities Stock Rating Adjusted by Citi
- Rating Downgrade: Citi analyst Nicholas Joseph lowered the price target for AvalonBay Communities (NYSE:AVB) from $212 to $198 while maintaining a Neutral rating, indicating a mixed outlook for the multifamily REIT sector.
- Market Expectations: On February 9, Cantor Fitzgerald raised its price target for AVB from $179 to $186, also keeping a Neutral rating, noting that the fourth-quarter results of five multifamily REITs fell short of consensus expectations, with new lease rate growth being a critical future indicator.
- Performance Highlights: During the Q4 2025 earnings call, CEO Benjamin Schall noted a record low resident turnover rate of 41%, reflecting the overall strength of AvalonBay's portfolio and the effectiveness of its operational strategies.
- Development Projects: AvalonBay launched $1.65 billion in new development projects expected to yield an initial stabilized return of 6.2%, while repurchasing nearly $490 million of its shares at an average price of $182, demonstrating confidence in its long-term outlook.
See More
AvalonBay Communities Q4 2025 Earnings Call Insights
- Performance Insights: AvalonBay reported a 2.1% overall revenue growth for 2025, with a resident retention rate at a historic low of 41%, indicating successful portfolio optimization and enhanced market competitiveness.
- Capital Management: The company raised $2.4 billion in capital at an initial cost of 5% during 2025, while repurchasing nearly $490 million in shares at an average price of $182 per share, showcasing strong capital management capabilities.
- Future Outlook: Revenue is forecasted to grow modestly by 1.4% in 2026, despite challenges from rising construction costs and tax abatement policies, with management expressing optimism about market improvement in the second half of the year.
- Dividend Increase: The Board approved an increase in the quarterly dividend to $1.78 per share, a 1.7% rise from the previous year, reflecting the company's confidence in future cash flows and commitment to shareholder returns.
See More
AvalonBay Reports Q4 2025 Earnings: EPS Down 40.9%
- Earnings Decline: AvalonBay's Q4 2025 EPS dropped to $1.17, a 40.9% decrease from $1.98 in Q4 2024, indicating significant pressure on profitability that may affect investor confidence moving forward.
- Funds from Operations: While FFO per share increased by 6.5% to $2.80, Core FFO only rose by 1.8% to $2.85, reflecting a lack of growth in core business profitability, which could impact future capital allocation decisions.
- Development Expansion: The company completed the development of two new communities with a total capital investment of $287 million, adding 612 apartment units, demonstrating ongoing commitment to market expansion aimed at enhancing long-term growth potential.
- Dividend Increase: The Board declared a Q1 2026 dividend of $1.78 per share, a 1.7% increase over the previous quarter, indicating strong cash flow management despite profitability pressures, and a commitment to returning value to shareholders.
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Company Focus: Anthropic, a key player in the AI sector, is highlighted amidst the broader market challenges.
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AvalonBay CEO to Participate in Citi Global Property CEO Conference
- Management Participation: AvalonBay's CEO Benjamin W. Schall and management team will participate in the Citi Global Property CEO Conference on March 2, 2026, where they are expected to discuss the company's operating environment, investment strategies, and financial matters, thereby enhancing investor confidence in the company's future prospects.
- Operational Metrics Improvement: As of February 2026, AvalonBay's physical occupancy increased by 20 basis points from December, while the Like-Term Effective Rent Change improved from -0.5% to +0.5%, indicating a positive performance in the market recovery that could drive future revenue growth.
- Stock Repurchase Program: The company repurchased $112.8 million of common stock in 2026 and terminated its 2025 repurchase program, authorizing a new $1 billion repurchase plan, reflecting confidence in its stock value and potentially enhancing shareholder returns.
- Disposition Activity: AvalonBay has closed the sale of two communities, generating $270 million in gross proceeds, and is set to sell two additional communities in the first half of 2026, which is expected to further optimize its asset portfolio and enhance financial flexibility.
See More
Bozzuto and Invesco Partner for $1 Billion Investment in Multifamily Assets
- Investment Strategy: Bozzuto Group is partnering with Invesco to launch a $1 billion investment initiative focused on acquiring older multifamily assets on the East Coast, aiming to enhance their market competitiveness through renovations and capitalize on potential value growth in the current market environment.
- Market Dynamics: Despite facing challenges from oversupply, Bozzuto believes this phenomenon is temporary, with expectations that vacancy rates will gradually dissipate by 2026, reflecting strong demand for rentals and future development potential.
- Cost Advantage: Acquiring existing buildings is typically priced 10% to 20% below new construction costs, allowing Bozzuto to enter the market quickly while avoiding cumbersome regulatory processes, thereby accelerating project implementation and enhancing investment returns.
- Investor Confidence: According to Berkadia's survey, 87% of investors plan to moderately or aggressively expand their multifamily portfolios this year, demonstrating cautious optimism about the multifamily sector despite ongoing challenges.
See More
AvalonBay Communities Stock Rating Adjusted by Citi
- Rating Downgrade: Citi analyst Nicholas Joseph lowered the price target for AvalonBay Communities (NYSE:AVB) from $212 to $198 while maintaining a Neutral rating, indicating a mixed outlook for the multifamily REIT sector.
- Market Expectations: On February 9, Cantor Fitzgerald raised its price target for AVB from $179 to $186, also keeping a Neutral rating, noting that the fourth-quarter results of five multifamily REITs fell short of consensus expectations, with new lease rate growth being a critical future indicator.
- Performance Highlights: During the Q4 2025 earnings call, CEO Benjamin Schall noted a record low resident turnover rate of 41%, reflecting the overall strength of AvalonBay's portfolio and the effectiveness of its operational strategies.
- Development Projects: AvalonBay launched $1.65 billion in new development projects expected to yield an initial stabilized return of 6.2%, while repurchasing nearly $490 million of its shares at an average price of $182, demonstrating confidence in its long-term outlook.
See More
AvalonBay Communities Q4 2025 Earnings Call Insights
- Performance Insights: AvalonBay reported a 2.1% overall revenue growth for 2025, with a resident retention rate at a historic low of 41%, indicating successful portfolio optimization and enhanced market competitiveness.
- Capital Management: The company raised $2.4 billion in capital at an initial cost of 5% during 2025, while repurchasing nearly $490 million in shares at an average price of $182 per share, showcasing strong capital management capabilities.
- Future Outlook: Revenue is forecasted to grow modestly by 1.4% in 2026, despite challenges from rising construction costs and tax abatement policies, with management expressing optimism about market improvement in the second half of the year.
- Dividend Increase: The Board approved an increase in the quarterly dividend to $1.78 per share, a 1.7% rise from the previous year, reflecting the company's confidence in future cash flows and commitment to shareholder returns.
See More
AvalonBay Reports Q4 2025 Earnings: EPS Down 40.9%
- Earnings Decline: AvalonBay's Q4 2025 EPS dropped to $1.17, a 40.9% decrease from $1.98 in Q4 2024, indicating significant pressure on profitability that may affect investor confidence moving forward.
- Funds from Operations: While FFO per share increased by 6.5% to $2.80, Core FFO only rose by 1.8% to $2.85, reflecting a lack of growth in core business profitability, which could impact future capital allocation decisions.
- Development Expansion: The company completed the development of two new communities with a total capital investment of $287 million, adding 612 apartment units, demonstrating ongoing commitment to market expansion aimed at enhancing long-term growth potential.
- Dividend Increase: The Board declared a Q1 2026 dividend of $1.78 per share, a 1.7% increase over the previous quarter, indicating strong cash flow management despite profitability pressures, and a commitment to returning value to shareholders.
See More
Analysis and Outlook: A New Decline in Software Performance
Market Trends: The software market is experiencing a significant selloff, indicating a downturn in investor confidence.
Company Focus: Anthropic, a key player in the AI sector, is highlighted amidst the broader market challenges.
See More
