Traders Bullish on SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic IPO Valuations
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 2 days ago
0mins
Source: stocktwits
- SpaceX IPO Valuation Expectations: Traders anticipate that SpaceX's first-day closing valuation will range between $2 trillion and $2.5 trillion, assigning a 37% probability to this outcome, indicating strong market confidence in its potential IPO, which could become one of the largest public offerings in history.
- OpenAI and Anthropic IPO Prospects: Kalshi traders assign a 92% probability to OpenAI going public this year, while Anthropic stands at 69%, suggesting a bullish outlook for both companies, with potential first-day valuations exceeding $1 trillion.
- Investor Enthusiasm for DXYZ and VCX: As IPO excitement grows, retail investors are flocking to DXYZ and VCX, with DXYZ holding 16.2% of its assets in SpaceX and VCX having 20.7% in Anthropic, reflecting a strong interest in tech stocks.
- Market Valuation Concerns: Despite the IPO frenzy, Deutsche Bank warns that projected IPO valuations appear disconnected from current business fundamentals, particularly when compared to Berkshire Hathaway's annual revenue exceeding $350 billion, raising concerns about the market's capacity to absorb multiple mega-IPOs.
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Analyst Views on DXYZ
About DXYZ
Destiny Tech100 Inc. (the Fund) is a non-diversified, closed-end management investment company. The Fund’s investment objective is to maximize the portfolio’s total return, principally by seeking capital gains on equity and equity-related investments. Under normal market conditions, the Fund will invest at least 80% of its total assets in equity and equity-linked securities of companies principally engaged in the technology sector. The Fund will invest in the equity and equity-linked securities of what it believes to be rapidly growing venture-capital-backed emerging companies, located in the United States. The Fund may also invest on an opportunistic basis in select United States publicly traded equity securities or certain non-United States companies that otherwise meet its investment criteria. It concentrates its investments in companies operating in one or more industries within the technology group of industries. Destiny Advisors LLC serves as the investment adviser to the Fund.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Traders Bullish on SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic IPO Valuations
- SpaceX IPO Valuation Expectations: Traders anticipate that SpaceX's first-day closing valuation will range between $2 trillion and $2.5 trillion, assigning a 37% probability to this outcome, indicating strong market confidence in its potential IPO, which could become one of the largest public offerings in history.
- OpenAI and Anthropic IPO Prospects: Kalshi traders assign a 92% probability to OpenAI going public this year, while Anthropic stands at 69%, suggesting a bullish outlook for both companies, with potential first-day valuations exceeding $1 trillion.
- Investor Enthusiasm for DXYZ and VCX: As IPO excitement grows, retail investors are flocking to DXYZ and VCX, with DXYZ holding 16.2% of its assets in SpaceX and VCX having 20.7% in Anthropic, reflecting a strong interest in tech stocks.
- Market Valuation Concerns: Despite the IPO frenzy, Deutsche Bank warns that projected IPO valuations appear disconnected from current business fundamentals, particularly when compared to Berkshire Hathaway's annual revenue exceeding $350 billion, raising concerns about the market's capacity to absorb multiple mega-IPOs.
See More
SpaceX IPO Frenzy Sparks Massive Investment Interest
- Investment Surge: BlackRock reportedly plans to invest up to $10 billion in the SpaceX IPO, potentially becoming a key anchor investor, which could attract additional large institutional investors and significantly heighten market interest in the offering.
- Oversubscription Expectations: Investor Larry Goldberg indicated that demand for the SpaceX IPO could reach 20 times oversubscribed, reflecting strong market anticipation for the company's public debut, with expectations that its valuation may exceed $2 trillion, making it one of the largest IPOs in history.
- Technical Complexity Challenges: The upcoming Starship launch is viewed as a critical event ahead of the IPO, with Goldberg noting that the mission carries ultra-high technical risks, which could impact investor confidence and market sentiment surrounding the IPO.
- Retail Investor Enthusiasm: Retail investors are showing significant enthusiasm for SpaceX proxy plays such as DXYZ, VCX, and NASA, with DXYZ jumping 9% in pre-market trading, while VCX and NASA also posted consecutive weekly gains, indicating strong market interest in SpaceX-related investments.
See More
New Trends in Tech Company IPOs
- Investor Access Restrictions: Wood and Robinhood's Shiv Verma highlight that the SEC's accredited investor rule is antiquated, limiting non-accredited investors from private markets, resulting in companies like SpaceX achieving valuations up to $2 trillion before going public, thereby allowing early investors to reap massive gains while retail investors face losses.
- Decline in Public Companies: Over the past 25 to 30 years, the number of publicly listed U.S. companies has roughly halved, as founders opt to remain private to avoid the bureaucracy and disclosure burdens of being public, a trend that allows institutional investors to dominate during high-growth phases.
- Emergence of New Investment Vehicles: Ark's $750 million interval fund ARKVX and Robinhood's newly launched RV1 closed-end fund aim to fill the access void for retail investors, providing more flexible investment options, especially in the absence of accredited investors.
- Market Sentiment Shift: SpaceX has become the top trending ticker on Stocktwits, with retail sentiment improving from 'bullish' to 'extremely bullish', indicating increasing market anticipation for its upcoming IPO and reflecting retail investors' sustained interest in IPOs.
See More
SpaceX IPO Approaches, DXYZ Emerges as Retail Investment Favorite
- IPO Anticipation: SpaceX is expected to release its IPO prospectus next week, targeting a fundraising amount between $70 billion and $75 billion, which, if successful, would mark one of the largest listings in Wall Street history with a valuation exceeding $1.75 trillion, significantly boosting investor confidence and driving related stock prices higher.
- DXYZ's Strong Performance: As a major retail proxy for SpaceX, DXYZ has 16.2% of its portfolio allocated to SpaceX, with a net asset value reaching $19.97 per share as of December 31, 2025, reflecting a 76% increase from the previous quarter, indicating robust market demand and investor interest in high-tech firms.
- ETF Investment Opportunities: ETFs like NASA and XOVR have also garnered investor attention, with NASA holding a 10% stake in SpaceX and XOVR having 10.86% exposure through special-purpose vehicles, providing a dual advantage of liquidity and access to private market investments, further enhancing investor participation.
- Retail Sentiment Surge: On the Stocktwits platform, retail sentiment around DXYZ and NASA is deemed 'extremely bullish', while XOVR shows a 'bullish' sentiment, indicating that investors are highly optimistic about SpaceX's upcoming IPO, which could trigger a significant influx of retail investment.
See More
Google's Partnership Talks with SpaceX Ignite Market Rally
- Market Buzz from Partnership: Google's discussions with SpaceX regarding a collaboration for its 'Project Suncatcher' initiative have led to a 12% premarket surge in the DXYZ ETF, indicating strong investor interest in the space sector.
- Investor Confidence Boosted: DXYZ ETF's largest holding is SpaceX at 16.2% of its assets, while NASA ETF's 10% direct exposure to SpaceX has also garnered attention, reflecting a bullish sentiment towards space technology investments.
- IPO Prospects Attract Capital Inflows: With SpaceX potentially raising up to $75 billion in what could be the largest IPO in history, related stocks like LUNR and RKLB have also rallied, gaining 9% and 6% respectively, as investors anticipate significant market movements.
- Retail Investor Sentiment High: On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for DXYZ and NASA is described as 'extremely bullish', with users comparing the fund's portfolio to owning rights to legendary music acts, suggesting substantial growth potential ahead.
See More
VCX Surges Amid AI Hype and IPO Excitement
- Investor Enthusiasm: VCX has seen a surge in investor demand driven by the anticipated IPOs of SpaceX and Anthropic, with Anthropic representing 21% of VCX's portfolio, making VCX one of Wall Street's hottest AI trades and attracting a wave of retail investors.
- Stock Price Surge: Since its launch, VCX's stock has skyrocketed by 2,172%, significantly outperforming other private tech funds like DXYZ, which is up 692%, indicating strong market enthusiasm and expectations for potential returns from VCX.
- Valuation Warning: Despite VCX's impressive performance, Anthony Showalter from Vervia Partners warns that VCX is trading far above the actual value of its holdings, suggesting that investors may be confusing exposure to elite private companies with reasonable valuations.
- Future Risks: Showalter emphasizes that even under extremely bullish scenarios, VCX's net asset value could still fall below its market price, and ongoing share issuance may dilute investors' exposure to key holdings, increasing future uncertainty.
See More
Traders Bullish on SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic IPO Valuations
- SpaceX IPO Valuation Expectations: Traders anticipate that SpaceX's first-day closing valuation will range between $2 trillion and $2.5 trillion, assigning a 37% probability to this outcome, indicating strong market confidence in its potential IPO, which could become one of the largest public offerings in history.
- OpenAI and Anthropic IPO Prospects: Kalshi traders assign a 92% probability to OpenAI going public this year, while Anthropic stands at 69%, suggesting a bullish outlook for both companies, with potential first-day valuations exceeding $1 trillion.
- Investor Enthusiasm for DXYZ and VCX: As IPO excitement grows, retail investors are flocking to DXYZ and VCX, with DXYZ holding 16.2% of its assets in SpaceX and VCX having 20.7% in Anthropic, reflecting a strong interest in tech stocks.
- Market Valuation Concerns: Despite the IPO frenzy, Deutsche Bank warns that projected IPO valuations appear disconnected from current business fundamentals, particularly when compared to Berkshire Hathaway's annual revenue exceeding $350 billion, raising concerns about the market's capacity to absorb multiple mega-IPOs.
See More
SpaceX IPO Frenzy Sparks Massive Investment Interest
- Investment Surge: BlackRock reportedly plans to invest up to $10 billion in the SpaceX IPO, potentially becoming a key anchor investor, which could attract additional large institutional investors and significantly heighten market interest in the offering.
- Oversubscription Expectations: Investor Larry Goldberg indicated that demand for the SpaceX IPO could reach 20 times oversubscribed, reflecting strong market anticipation for the company's public debut, with expectations that its valuation may exceed $2 trillion, making it one of the largest IPOs in history.
- Technical Complexity Challenges: The upcoming Starship launch is viewed as a critical event ahead of the IPO, with Goldberg noting that the mission carries ultra-high technical risks, which could impact investor confidence and market sentiment surrounding the IPO.
- Retail Investor Enthusiasm: Retail investors are showing significant enthusiasm for SpaceX proxy plays such as DXYZ, VCX, and NASA, with DXYZ jumping 9% in pre-market trading, while VCX and NASA also posted consecutive weekly gains, indicating strong market interest in SpaceX-related investments.
See More
New Trends in Tech Company IPOs
- Investor Access Restrictions: Wood and Robinhood's Shiv Verma highlight that the SEC's accredited investor rule is antiquated, limiting non-accredited investors from private markets, resulting in companies like SpaceX achieving valuations up to $2 trillion before going public, thereby allowing early investors to reap massive gains while retail investors face losses.
- Decline in Public Companies: Over the past 25 to 30 years, the number of publicly listed U.S. companies has roughly halved, as founders opt to remain private to avoid the bureaucracy and disclosure burdens of being public, a trend that allows institutional investors to dominate during high-growth phases.
- Emergence of New Investment Vehicles: Ark's $750 million interval fund ARKVX and Robinhood's newly launched RV1 closed-end fund aim to fill the access void for retail investors, providing more flexible investment options, especially in the absence of accredited investors.
- Market Sentiment Shift: SpaceX has become the top trending ticker on Stocktwits, with retail sentiment improving from 'bullish' to 'extremely bullish', indicating increasing market anticipation for its upcoming IPO and reflecting retail investors' sustained interest in IPOs.
See More
SpaceX IPO Approaches, DXYZ Emerges as Retail Investment Favorite
- IPO Anticipation: SpaceX is expected to release its IPO prospectus next week, targeting a fundraising amount between $70 billion and $75 billion, which, if successful, would mark one of the largest listings in Wall Street history with a valuation exceeding $1.75 trillion, significantly boosting investor confidence and driving related stock prices higher.
- DXYZ's Strong Performance: As a major retail proxy for SpaceX, DXYZ has 16.2% of its portfolio allocated to SpaceX, with a net asset value reaching $19.97 per share as of December 31, 2025, reflecting a 76% increase from the previous quarter, indicating robust market demand and investor interest in high-tech firms.
- ETF Investment Opportunities: ETFs like NASA and XOVR have also garnered investor attention, with NASA holding a 10% stake in SpaceX and XOVR having 10.86% exposure through special-purpose vehicles, providing a dual advantage of liquidity and access to private market investments, further enhancing investor participation.
- Retail Sentiment Surge: On the Stocktwits platform, retail sentiment around DXYZ and NASA is deemed 'extremely bullish', while XOVR shows a 'bullish' sentiment, indicating that investors are highly optimistic about SpaceX's upcoming IPO, which could trigger a significant influx of retail investment.
See More
Google's Partnership Talks with SpaceX Ignite Market Rally
- Market Buzz from Partnership: Google's discussions with SpaceX regarding a collaboration for its 'Project Suncatcher' initiative have led to a 12% premarket surge in the DXYZ ETF, indicating strong investor interest in the space sector.
- Investor Confidence Boosted: DXYZ ETF's largest holding is SpaceX at 16.2% of its assets, while NASA ETF's 10% direct exposure to SpaceX has also garnered attention, reflecting a bullish sentiment towards space technology investments.
- IPO Prospects Attract Capital Inflows: With SpaceX potentially raising up to $75 billion in what could be the largest IPO in history, related stocks like LUNR and RKLB have also rallied, gaining 9% and 6% respectively, as investors anticipate significant market movements.
- Retail Investor Sentiment High: On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for DXYZ and NASA is described as 'extremely bullish', with users comparing the fund's portfolio to owning rights to legendary music acts, suggesting substantial growth potential ahead.
See More
VCX Surges Amid AI Hype and IPO Excitement
- Investor Enthusiasm: VCX has seen a surge in investor demand driven by the anticipated IPOs of SpaceX and Anthropic, with Anthropic representing 21% of VCX's portfolio, making VCX one of Wall Street's hottest AI trades and attracting a wave of retail investors.
- Stock Price Surge: Since its launch, VCX's stock has skyrocketed by 2,172%, significantly outperforming other private tech funds like DXYZ, which is up 692%, indicating strong market enthusiasm and expectations for potential returns from VCX.
- Valuation Warning: Despite VCX's impressive performance, Anthony Showalter from Vervia Partners warns that VCX is trading far above the actual value of its holdings, suggesting that investors may be confusing exposure to elite private companies with reasonable valuations.
- Future Risks: Showalter emphasizes that even under extremely bullish scenarios, VCX's net asset value could still fall below its market price, and ongoing share issuance may dilute investors' exposure to key holdings, increasing future uncertainty.
See More
