Toast Inc Shares Slide Following PayPal's Weaker Earnings Report
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 5d ago
0mins
Should l Buy TOST?
Source: Benzinga
- PayPal Earnings Impact: PayPal's fourth-quarter revenue grew 4% year-over-year to $8.68 billion, missing Wall Street's $8.80 billion estimate, triggering a sell-off in payment and merchant technology stocks, causing Toast shares to drop 9.45%.
- Market Reaction: Toast is currently trading 9.8% below its 20-day simple moving average and 20.6% below its 100-day moving average, indicating a persistent bearish trend, with shares down 28.43% over the past 12 months.
- Industry Correlation: Although Toast and PayPal serve different customer bases, investors view them as closely linked due to their reliance on payment volume from small and mid-sized businesses; PayPal's warning raises concerns about potential declines in transaction revenue and software upsell opportunities for Toast's restaurant operators.
- Future Outlook: Toast is set to report its next earnings on February 12, with an estimated EPS of 19 cents and revenue of $1.62 billion; despite a current P/E ratio of 71.6, analysts believe the expected 280% earnings growth justifies a 46% upside potential.
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Analyst Views on TOST
Wall Street analysts forecast TOST stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for TOST is 47.00 USD with a low forecast of 36.00 USD and a high forecast of 60.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
21 Analyst Rating
13 Buy
8 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 27.050
Low
36.00
Averages
47.00
High
60.00
Current: 27.050
Low
36.00
Averages
47.00
High
60.00
About TOST
Toast, Inc. is a cloud-based, all-in-one digital technology platform purpose-built for the entire restaurant community. It provides a platform of software-as-a-service (SaaS) products and financial technology solutions, including integrated payment processing, restaurant-grade hardware, and a broad ecosystem of third-party partners. It serves as the restaurant operating system, connecting front of house and back of house operations across service models including dine-in, takeout, delivery, catering, and retail. Its products include point-of-sale (POS) & restaurant operations, marketing, online ordering & delivery, team management, vendor management, retail, and financial technology solutions. Its in-store POS and restaurant operations offerings are built to help reduce time to take an order, optimize operations, and handle payments. Its marketing products provide integrated solutions to deliver targeted email and SMS campaigns, build loyalty programs, offer gift cards, and others.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Key Earnings Reports and Economic Outlook This Week
- DuPont Earnings Expectations: DuPont is expected to report earnings of $0.43 per share and revenue of $1.69 billion for Q4 2025, with analysts noting ongoing pressure in short-cycle businesses, while slight improvements in the automotive sector may influence investor sentiment.
- Cisco's AI Focus: Cisco anticipates earnings of $1.02 per share and revenue of $15.1 billion for Q2 FY2026, with CEO highlighting a major multi-year campus networking refresh, making AI infrastructure demand a critical growth driver.
- Importance of Employment Report: The January employment report is expected to show an addition of 80,000 nonfarm payrolls and an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.4%, directly impacting private consumption and U.S. GDP, making it crucial for investors to monitor.
- Consumer Price Index Insights: The January CPI is projected to increase by 2.5% year-over-year, with core CPI rising by 2.6%, providing essential inflation details despite not being the Fed's preferred measure, particularly regarding persistent shelter cost inflation.
See More
DA Davidson Lowers Toast, Inc. Price Target to $36 Ahead of Q4 Results
- Price Target Adjustment: DA Davidson analyst Peter Heckmann lowered the price target for Toast, Inc. from $42 to $36 while maintaining a Neutral rating, anticipating the company will modestly exceed its own forecasts and broader consensus, although growth and margin expansion are expected to slow compared to the elevated pace of the past four to six quarters.
- Sustained Growth Momentum: In Q3 2025, Toast, Inc. surpassed $2 billion in annual recurring revenue for the first time, effectively doubling its ARR in just two years, which highlights the scalability and resilience of its platform and reflects strong performance in the restaurant industry.
- AI Product Adoption: The rollout of AI-driven products like Toast IQ and Toast Advertising has seen strong early adoption, with over 25,000 restaurants using Toast IQ more than 235,000 times since early October, reinforcing customer engagement and satisfaction across its user base.
- Positioning as a Tech Partner: Toast, Inc. is increasingly positioning itself as a technology partner rather than just a payments provider, with its expanding suite of software, payments, and AI tools supporting a long-term growth narrative, even as near-term expectations normalize.
See More
Nvidia's $2 Billion Investment in CoreWeave Highlights AI Infrastructure Needs
- Significant Investment: Nvidia's announcement of a $2 billion investment in CoreWeave, purchasing shares at approximately $87 each, represents a 6.5% discount from last Friday's closing price, resulting in a more than 10% surge in CoreWeave's stock, indicating strong market demand for AI infrastructure.
- Deepening Strategic Partnership: The collaboration between Nvidia and CoreWeave aims to meet the extraordinary demand for Nvidia's AI factories, with plans to build 5 gigawatts of AI factories by 2030, and this investment will accelerate that process, further solidifying Nvidia's leadership in the AI sector.
- Liquidity Crisis Concerns: While Nvidia's investment is seen as support for CoreWeave, critics note that CoreWeave may be facing cash flow shortages and debt burdens, suggesting that Nvidia's investment could be a move to mitigate the risk of its partner's potential bankruptcy.
- Market Outlook Analysis: As AI technology rapidly evolves, Nvidia's investment is not only a lifeline for CoreWeave but also a strategic positioning within the entire AI ecosystem, reflecting the company's forward-thinking approach in future market competition.
See More
NVIDIA Invests $2 Billion in CoreWeave to Boost AI Infrastructure
- Investment Scale: NVIDIA announced a $2 billion investment in CoreWeave, purchasing shares at approximately $87 each, reflecting a 6.5% discount from Friday's closing price, aimed at supporting CoreWeave's expansion of AI data center infrastructure to meet growing market demand.
- Market Reaction: Following the announcement, CoreWeave's shares surged over 10%, indicating a positive market response to NVIDIA's investment and reflecting investor optimism regarding the demand for AI infrastructure.
- Strategic Significance: NVIDIA's investment not only supports CoreWeave but also signifies its long-term strategic positioning in the AI sector, with plans to build 5 gigawatts of AI factories by 2030 to address future technological needs.
- Risk Consideration: While the investment is seen as a support for CoreWeave, analysts express concerns that NVIDIA may be overly reliant on CoreWeave financially, especially as it faces liquidity crises and debt pressures, which could impact NVIDIA's long-term investment returns.
See More
Toast Achieves Sustainable Profitability with Over $2 Billion in Revenue
- Significant Revenue Growth: Toast's Annualized Recurring Revenue (ARR) surpassed $1.9 billion in mid-2025 and exceeded $2 billion by Q3 2025, reflecting a robust demand and a year-over-year growth rate of approximately 30% in the small business sector.
- Profitability Improvement: In FY 2024, Toast achieved GAAP profitability for the first time with a net income of $19 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $373 million, marking a pivotal shift from cash burn to self-funding growth.
- Market Penetration Potential: While Toast services around 156,000 restaurant locations, its total addressable market is estimated at approximately 1.4 million, indicating substantial future growth opportunities to capture additional market share.
- Product Expansion Strategy: New offerings like Toast IQ and Toast Advertising assist restaurateurs in enhancing marketing and operational efficiencies, leading to increased customer spending across Toast's product lines, thereby boosting customer lifetime value and reducing churn.
See More
Toast Reports Significant Financial Growth
- Recurring Revenue Growth: Toast's Annualized Recurring Revenue (ARR) reached $1.9 billion in mid-2025, growing approximately 30% year-over-year, with projections to exceed $2 billion by Q3 2025, highlighting its strong appeal and stability in the small business market.
- First Year of Profitability: In FY 2024, Toast achieved GAAP profitability with a net income of $19 million and an Adjusted EBITDA of $373 million, marking a critical transition from cash burn to self-funding growth.
- Market Penetration Potential: Despite servicing around 156,000 restaurant locations, Toast's total addressable market is estimated at 1.4 million locations, indicating significant room for future expansion and growth potential.
- Product Expansion Strategy: By launching new offerings like Toast IQ and Toast Advertising, Toast enhances customer marketing and operational efficiency, thereby increasing customer lifetime value and reducing churn, further solidifying its market position.
See More
Key Earnings Reports and Economic Outlook This Week
- DuPont Earnings Expectations: DuPont is expected to report earnings of $0.43 per share and revenue of $1.69 billion for Q4 2025, with analysts noting ongoing pressure in short-cycle businesses, while slight improvements in the automotive sector may influence investor sentiment.
- Cisco's AI Focus: Cisco anticipates earnings of $1.02 per share and revenue of $15.1 billion for Q2 FY2026, with CEO highlighting a major multi-year campus networking refresh, making AI infrastructure demand a critical growth driver.
- Importance of Employment Report: The January employment report is expected to show an addition of 80,000 nonfarm payrolls and an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.4%, directly impacting private consumption and U.S. GDP, making it crucial for investors to monitor.
- Consumer Price Index Insights: The January CPI is projected to increase by 2.5% year-over-year, with core CPI rising by 2.6%, providing essential inflation details despite not being the Fed's preferred measure, particularly regarding persistent shelter cost inflation.
See More
DA Davidson Lowers Toast, Inc. Price Target to $36 Ahead of Q4 Results
- Price Target Adjustment: DA Davidson analyst Peter Heckmann lowered the price target for Toast, Inc. from $42 to $36 while maintaining a Neutral rating, anticipating the company will modestly exceed its own forecasts and broader consensus, although growth and margin expansion are expected to slow compared to the elevated pace of the past four to six quarters.
- Sustained Growth Momentum: In Q3 2025, Toast, Inc. surpassed $2 billion in annual recurring revenue for the first time, effectively doubling its ARR in just two years, which highlights the scalability and resilience of its platform and reflects strong performance in the restaurant industry.
- AI Product Adoption: The rollout of AI-driven products like Toast IQ and Toast Advertising has seen strong early adoption, with over 25,000 restaurants using Toast IQ more than 235,000 times since early October, reinforcing customer engagement and satisfaction across its user base.
- Positioning as a Tech Partner: Toast, Inc. is increasingly positioning itself as a technology partner rather than just a payments provider, with its expanding suite of software, payments, and AI tools supporting a long-term growth narrative, even as near-term expectations normalize.
See More
Nvidia's $2 Billion Investment in CoreWeave Highlights AI Infrastructure Needs
- Significant Investment: Nvidia's announcement of a $2 billion investment in CoreWeave, purchasing shares at approximately $87 each, represents a 6.5% discount from last Friday's closing price, resulting in a more than 10% surge in CoreWeave's stock, indicating strong market demand for AI infrastructure.
- Deepening Strategic Partnership: The collaboration between Nvidia and CoreWeave aims to meet the extraordinary demand for Nvidia's AI factories, with plans to build 5 gigawatts of AI factories by 2030, and this investment will accelerate that process, further solidifying Nvidia's leadership in the AI sector.
- Liquidity Crisis Concerns: While Nvidia's investment is seen as support for CoreWeave, critics note that CoreWeave may be facing cash flow shortages and debt burdens, suggesting that Nvidia's investment could be a move to mitigate the risk of its partner's potential bankruptcy.
- Market Outlook Analysis: As AI technology rapidly evolves, Nvidia's investment is not only a lifeline for CoreWeave but also a strategic positioning within the entire AI ecosystem, reflecting the company's forward-thinking approach in future market competition.
See More
NVIDIA Invests $2 Billion in CoreWeave to Boost AI Infrastructure
- Investment Scale: NVIDIA announced a $2 billion investment in CoreWeave, purchasing shares at approximately $87 each, reflecting a 6.5% discount from Friday's closing price, aimed at supporting CoreWeave's expansion of AI data center infrastructure to meet growing market demand.
- Market Reaction: Following the announcement, CoreWeave's shares surged over 10%, indicating a positive market response to NVIDIA's investment and reflecting investor optimism regarding the demand for AI infrastructure.
- Strategic Significance: NVIDIA's investment not only supports CoreWeave but also signifies its long-term strategic positioning in the AI sector, with plans to build 5 gigawatts of AI factories by 2030 to address future technological needs.
- Risk Consideration: While the investment is seen as a support for CoreWeave, analysts express concerns that NVIDIA may be overly reliant on CoreWeave financially, especially as it faces liquidity crises and debt pressures, which could impact NVIDIA's long-term investment returns.
See More
Toast Achieves Sustainable Profitability with Over $2 Billion in Revenue
- Significant Revenue Growth: Toast's Annualized Recurring Revenue (ARR) surpassed $1.9 billion in mid-2025 and exceeded $2 billion by Q3 2025, reflecting a robust demand and a year-over-year growth rate of approximately 30% in the small business sector.
- Profitability Improvement: In FY 2024, Toast achieved GAAP profitability for the first time with a net income of $19 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $373 million, marking a pivotal shift from cash burn to self-funding growth.
- Market Penetration Potential: While Toast services around 156,000 restaurant locations, its total addressable market is estimated at approximately 1.4 million, indicating substantial future growth opportunities to capture additional market share.
- Product Expansion Strategy: New offerings like Toast IQ and Toast Advertising assist restaurateurs in enhancing marketing and operational efficiencies, leading to increased customer spending across Toast's product lines, thereby boosting customer lifetime value and reducing churn.
See More
Toast Reports Significant Financial Growth
- Recurring Revenue Growth: Toast's Annualized Recurring Revenue (ARR) reached $1.9 billion in mid-2025, growing approximately 30% year-over-year, with projections to exceed $2 billion by Q3 2025, highlighting its strong appeal and stability in the small business market.
- First Year of Profitability: In FY 2024, Toast achieved GAAP profitability with a net income of $19 million and an Adjusted EBITDA of $373 million, marking a critical transition from cash burn to self-funding growth.
- Market Penetration Potential: Despite servicing around 156,000 restaurant locations, Toast's total addressable market is estimated at 1.4 million locations, indicating significant room for future expansion and growth potential.
- Product Expansion Strategy: By launching new offerings like Toast IQ and Toast Advertising, Toast enhances customer marketing and operational efficiency, thereby increasing customer lifetime value and reducing churn, further solidifying its market position.
See More
