Tesla Aims for Full Self-Driving Approval in Europe by February 2026
Tesla's FSD Approval Plans: Tesla Inc. is seeking approval for its Full Self-Driving (FSD) feature in Europe by February 2026, having engaged with EU regulators for over a year and conducted extensive internal testing across 17 countries.
Collaboration with Dutch Authorities: The company is working with the Dutch approval authority, RDW, to obtain exemptions for FSD features, aiming for national approval in the Netherlands, which could facilitate an EU-wide rollout.
Improvements in FSD Technology: Recent advancements in Tesla's FSD v14 have been praised by industry experts, highlighting significant upgrades over previous versions and improved performance with fewer critical disengagements.
Expert Endorsements: Notable figures, including Ross Gerber and Andrej Karpathy, have commended the enhancements in Tesla's FSD technology, comparing its operation to a magnetic levitation train and emphasizing the capabilities of the new hardware.
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- Performance Decline: The ARKK ETF fell 12% in the latest quarter, marking its worst performance since early 2025, primarily due to significant impacts from Tesla's stock volatility, highlighting ARKK's heavy reliance on Tesla.
- Tesla's Optimistic Outlook: Despite challenges, ARK maintains a $2,600 price forecast for Tesla by 2029, implying a market cap of $9.75 trillion, reflecting confidence in Tesla's future growth potential, particularly in robotics and autonomous driving.
- Autonomous Driving Market Potential: Cathie Wood stated that autonomy will be Tesla's largest revenue driver, with expectations of scaling to a $10 trillion market, emphasizing the company's potential to achieve autonomy in 25% to 50% of major U.S. cities by year-end.
- Investor Sentiment Shift: While sentiment towards ARKK remains bullish, Tesla's sentiment fluctuated between bearish and extremely bearish during the quarter, indicating market uncertainty regarding Tesla's future performance amid intensifying competition.
- Positive Survey Results: A recent survey by Murphy & Prachthauser found that 70% of Americans feel anxious about riding in autonomous rideshares, yet 64% of those who have experienced self-driving vehicles felt comfortable during their last ride, indicating a growing acceptance of this emerging market.
- Waymo's Market Leadership: Waymo's autonomous vehicles have completed over 20 million rides, boasting a 93% customer satisfaction rate, and its safety record shows a 92% reduction in serious injuries and pedestrian crashes compared to human drivers, making it a safer choice as determined by insurance giant Swiss Re.
- Tesla's Expansion Plans: Tesla is currently offering autonomous rideshare services in Austin and plans to expand into more cities, with VP Lars Moravy stating that Tesla is the only company capable of scaling quickly to meet the surging demand for autonomy, highlighting the massive potential market size.
- Technological Competitive Edge: Tesla's full self-driving technology relies solely on computer vision, which lowers costs but may compromise safety, while Waymo employs LiDAR sensors, showcasing a fundamental difference in their technological approaches that could impact future market shares.
- Oil Price Surge: Brent crude for June delivery rose 1.5% to $105.56 per barrel, with March prices soaring over 60%, marking the largest monthly rally since 1988, indicating market sensitivity to Middle Eastern tensions.
- Strong U.S. Crude Performance: U.S. crude for May also increased by 1.5% to $102.92 per barrel, with a 51% rise in March, representing the best performance since May 2020, reflecting concerns over supply disruptions.
- Escalating Geopolitical Risks: Iranian drones targeted fuel tanks at Kuwait International Airport, causing a massive fire and exacerbating global economic fears over reliance on Middle Eastern oil, especially with shipments through the Strait of Hormuz nearly halted.
- Trump's Withdrawal Statement: Trump indicated that U.S. forces are expected to leave Iran in two to three weeks, dismissing the need for a negotiated deal to end the conflict, which could lead to further oil price volatility and impact global market stability.
- Significant Valuation Gap: Rivian's price-to-sales ratio stands at just 3.2 times, compared to Tesla's over 13 times, indicating that if Rivian were valued similarly to Tesla, there could be over 300% upside potential, highlighting its undervaluation.
- Emulating Tesla's Success: The upcoming R2 SUV from Rivian is priced under $50,000, which is expected to attract a large consumer base, akin to the success of Tesla's Model Y, a model that significantly contributes to Tesla's sales and valuation, potentially driving Rivian's growth.
- Broad Market Opportunities: R2 deliveries are set to begin next month, and while it may take years to reach peak sales volumes, the launch of this new model is seen as a critical growth catalyst for Rivian, especially given the rising demand for SUVs.
- Robotaxi Market Potential: Rivian is heavily investing in AI to achieve full autonomy, with experts estimating the robotaxi market could reach $10 trillion; Uber's agreement to purchase up to 50,000 Rivian R2s underscores the confidence in Rivian's vision and market potential.
- Valuation Gap: Rivian's price-to-sales ratio stands at just 3.2 times, compared to Tesla's over 13 times, suggesting that if Rivian were valued similarly to Tesla, its stock could see an upside of more than 300%, indicating that the market has yet to fully recognize Rivian's potential.
- R2 SUV Launch: Rivian is set to begin deliveries of its first model priced under $50,000, the R2 SUV, next month, which is expected to attract a significant consumer base amid rising demand for SUVs, potentially serving as a key growth driver for the company.
- Robotaxi Market Opportunity: Rivian is significantly investing in AI technology with the aim of achieving full autonomy in the coming years, as experts predict the robotaxi market could eventually be worth $10 trillion, positioning Rivian for substantial long-term gains in this emerging sector.
- Partnership with Uber: Uber has agreed to purchase up to 50,000 Rivian R2s to power its robotaxi division, providing Rivian with a stable order source while enhancing its market recognition and brand influence in the competitive EV landscape.
- Market Rally: The S&P 500 index rose by 2.91%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average by 2.49%, and the Nasdaq 100 by 3.43%, reflecting market optimism regarding the potential end of the Iran war, which could lower energy prices and ease inflation concerns.
- Consumer Confidence Boost: The US March consumer confidence index unexpectedly increased by 0.8 to 91.8, surpassing the anticipated decline to 87.9, indicating a strengthening consumer outlook that may drive spending and economic growth.
- Strength in China: China's March manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4, better than the expected 50.1, signaling signs of economic recovery that could positively impact global growth prospects and further support US stock performance.
- Falling Bond Yields: The 10-year Treasury note yield dropped to 4.28%, a one-week low, reflecting reduced inflation worries, which may provide support for the stock market and enhance investor interest in equities.











