TD Cowen Raises Global GLP-1 Sales Forecast Significantly
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 3 days ago
0mins
Source: stocktwits
- Market Share Forecast: TD Cowen projects that Eli Lilly (LLY) and Novo Nordisk (NVO) will maintain market leadership with expected shares of 62% and 31%, respectively, highlighting their strong competitive positions in the GLP-1 treatment sector.
- Sales Growth Outlook: The firm raised its global GLP-1 sales forecast to $150 billion by 2030, significantly above the previous estimate of $139 billion, with around 59 million patients expected to use GLP-1 therapies by the decade's end, indicating robust market demand.
- Oral Therapy Market Competition: Oral GLP-1 drugs are expected to account for 14% of overall sales, up from 11%, reflecting intensifying competition between Novo and Lilly in the oral weight-loss treatment market, with Novo's Wegovy pill gaining an early advantage.
- Stock Performance Comparison: While NVO shares have declined approximately 15% this year, LLY's stock has risen by 4%, indicating a bullish sentiment towards LLY, particularly in light of its rapid expansion in the oncology sector.
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Analyst Views on LLY
Wall Street analysts forecast LLY stock price to rise
20 Analyst Rating
18 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 1131.420
Low
950.00
Averages
1192
High
1500
Current: 1131.420
Low
950.00
Averages
1192
High
1500
About LLY
Eli Lilly and Company is a medicine company, which discovers, develops, manufactures, and market products in a single business segment called human pharmaceutical products. The Company manufacture and distribute its products through facilities in the United States, including Puerto Rico, and in Europe and Asia. The Company’s products are sold in approximately 90 countries. Its Cardiometabolic Health products Basaglar; Humalog, Humalog Mix 75/25, Humalog U-100, Humalog U-200, Humalog Mix 50/50, insulin lispro, and others; Humulin, Humulin 70/30, and others; Jardiance; Mounjaro; Trulicity; Zepbound, and others. Its oncology products include Cyramza, Erbitux, Tyvyt, Verzenio, Retevmo, Jaypirca, and others. Its immunology products include Ebglyss, Olumiant, Omvoh, and Taltz. Its neuroscience products include Emgality and Kisunla. Its LillyDirect, a direct-to-patient digital health care platform, provides delivery of select Lilly medicines dispensed by third-party pharmacies to patients.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Diminished Competitive Edge: The disappointing results further solidify Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk's dominance in the GLP-1 market, reducing competitive pressure and helping them maintain market share and pricing power.
- Positive Data for Eli Lilly: At the American Diabetes Association meeting, Eli Lilly presented promising data for Retatrutide, with participants achieving an average weight loss of about 19% and only a 4% dropout rate, indicating an expanding competitive advantage in the weight-loss drug sector.
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- Pharmaceutical Market Leader: Eli Lilly is leading the obesity drug market, with its products Mounjaro and Zepbound experiencing revenue growth in double and triple digits, and the recent launch of the oral weight loss drug Foundayo is expected to broaden its market reach.
- Strong Financial Performance: Johnson & Johnson reported nearly 10% sales growth in its innovative medicines and medtech sectors, with total sales exceeding $24 billion in the latest quarter, indicating robust growth potential in the healthcare market.
- Future Growth Expectations: Johnson & Johnson aims to achieve $100 billion in annual revenue by 2023 and anticipates double-digit growth by the end of the decade, suggesting that demand for its medical products will remain strong even amid economic fluctuations, positioning the stock for continued appreciation.
See More
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- Market Expansion Potential: Lilly plans to submit Foundayo for U.S. regulatory approval for type 2 diabetes by the end of Q2, which is expected to expand the company's total addressable market by providing a convenient oral alternative for patients who prefer pills.
- Consistent Safety Data: Safety data across the three trials were consistent, with the most common side effects being mild-to-moderate gastrointestinal issues, and discontinuation rates remained in the low-to-mid teens, aligning with other oral GLP-1s.
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- Vaccine Development Potential: Curevo's next-generation shingles vaccine has shown comparable immune response to GSK's Shingrix in phase 2 trials, and capturing just 10% of the market could yield approximately $480 million in annual sales, enhancing Lilly's competitive position in the vaccine market.
- Addressing Antibiotic Resistance: LimmaTech is developing vaccines against resistant bacterial pathogens, with significant market potential similar to Merck's Gardasil; successful vaccines could generate hundreds of millions to billions in annual revenue, aligning with the growing global health concerns.
- Future of Preventive Medicine: Lilly's acquisitions reflect a strategic shift towards preventive medicine, indicating the company is building a diversified therapeutic portfolio to address future market challenges and ensure sustained revenue growth beyond its current obesity-focused franchise.
See More
