Axon increases FY25 revenue forecast to $2.74B, up from $2.65B-$2.73B
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Nov 04 2025
0mins
Should l Buy AXON?
FY25 Revenue and EBITDA Margin: The consensus for FY25 revenue is projected at $2.72 billion, with an expected Adjusted EBITDA margin of 25%, consistent with previous guidance.
Stock-Based Compensation Expenses: The company anticipates stock-based compensation expenses to be between $580 million and $630 million, which includes approximately $330 million related to the 2024 eXponential Stock Plan and CEO Performance Award.
CapEx Plans for 2025: Expected capital expenditures for 2025 are estimated to be between $170 million and $180 million, focusing on long-term R&D investments, capacity expansion, and new product development.
Headquarters Investment: The anticipated capital expenditures do not cover costs for a new headquarters, as the company is currently awaiting local zoning and planning decisions.
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Analyst Views on AXON
Wall Street analysts forecast AXON stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AXON is 800.38 USD with a low forecast of 610.00 USD and a high forecast of 925.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
15 Analyst Rating
14 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 399.650
Low
610.00
Averages
800.38
High
925.00
Current: 399.650
Low
610.00
Averages
800.38
High
925.00
About AXON
Axon Enterprise, Inc. is a technology company in global public safety. It is building the public safety operating system by integrating a suite of hardware devices and cloud software solutions that lead modern policing. Its segments include Connected Devices and Software & Services. Connected Devices segment includes the development, manufacture and sale of fully integrated hardware solutions such as conducted energy devices (CEDs), body cameras, drones, accessories, extended warranties and other hardware products. Software & Services segment includes the development and sale of fully integrated cloud-based software solutions such as Axon Evidence, Records Management System, Draft One and other software and services that enable law enforcement to securely store, manage, share and analyze video and manage operations. Its global customer base includes first responders across international, federal, state and local law enforcement, fire, corrections and emergency medical services.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Industrial Stocks Show Weak Momentum and High Valuation Concerns
- Lowest Momentum Rating: Axon Enterprise (AXON) tops the list with an F momentum grade and D- valuation grade, indicating weak price performance that may lead to declining investor confidence and affect future capital inflows.
- High Valuation Concerns: Enovix (ENVX) and Paycom Software (PAYC) also received F momentum grades and C valuation grades, suggesting that these companies may be overpriced in the market, prompting investors to carefully assess their investment value.
- Wide Industry Distribution: The list spans various sub-sectors, including Aerospace and Defense, Electrical Components and Equipment, and Human Resource & Employment Services, highlighting the widespread challenges facing the industrial sector that could impact overall market performance.
- Market Environment Impact: As geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties rise, the weakening momentum and high valuations of industrial stocks may lead investors to reassess risks, subsequently affecting overall market liquidity and investment strategies.
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Axon Stock Rebounds as Government Deploys Body Cameras
- Stock Rebound: Axon shares rose over 4% in pre-market trading on Tuesday, and if this gain holds during regular trading hours, it will end a four-day losing streak and recover some of its year-to-date losses, indicating a resurgence of market confidence in the company.
- Government Deployment Plan: U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem announced that every officer in Minneapolis will be equipped with body cameras, and as funding becomes available, this program will expand nationwide, likely increasing demand for Axon's products in the public safety sector.
- Surge in Market Sentiment: Retail message volume on Stocktwits surged by 1,275% in the last 24 hours, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment towards Axon from 'bearish' to 'extremely bullish', which could further drive the stock price upward.
- Market Share Advantage: Axon holds approximately 85% of the body camera contract market share among major U.S. cities and public safety buyers, and despite a 31% decline in stock price over the past year, its market leadership provides a strong foundation for future growth.
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- Significant Stock Drop: Axon's shares fell 19.1% this week, despite the absence of company-specific negative news, reflecting a broader sell-off trend in high-priced SaaS stocks that may impact investor confidence.
- Market Sentiment Shift: This week, industry giants like Microsoft, ServiceNow, and SAP experienced double-digit declines, even though their earnings reports were largely in line with expectations, indicating a notable shift in market sentiment towards the software sector, affecting Axon as well.
- Valuation Context: With a current price-to-sales ratio of 16, Axon is still considered expensive, but this represents a significantly more attractive price compared to its trading levels over the past year and a half, potentially offering a buying opportunity for investors.
- Future Earnings Expectations: Axon is set to report its fourth-quarter earnings on February 24, with analysts forecasting a 31.3% revenue growth to $755.3 million, but a drop in adjusted earnings per share from $2.08 to $1.60 due to increased spending on new technologies and acquisitions, making this a crucial moment to assess its market position.
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- Market Performance Analysis: As of Friday noon, Axon's stock primarily dropped on Wednesday and Thursday, despite earnings results from industry giants like Microsoft, ServiceNow, and SAP being in line with estimates, their stocks still saw double-digit declines, exacerbating market unease.
- Strong Competitive Advantages: Despite the competitive threat from AI, Axon has established a robust competitive edge with its TASERs and body cameras, along with software that manages evidence and records, making it a clear leader in law enforcement technology that is unlikely to be unseated in the short term.
- Future Outlook: Axon currently trades at a price-to-sales ratio of 16, which, while not cheap, is an improvement compared to its trading levels over the past year and a half; the company is expected to report fourth-quarter earnings on February 24, with revenue projected to grow 31.3% to $755.3 million, although adjusted earnings per share are anticipated to decline, reflecting increased spending on new technology investments.
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- Competitive Market Positioning: AppLovin's AXON 2.0 machine learning advertising engine successfully attracts non-gaming advertisers, with total revenue projected to reach $9.3 billion in 2026, indicating a nearly 70% growth compared to 2025 and showcasing its strong competitive edge in the ad tech space.
- Advertising Spend Surge: BofA forecasts that AppLovin's ad spend will hit $6.7 billion, with quarterly advertising revenue surpassing $1 billion, reflecting the company's rapid expansion and enhanced profitability in the advertising market.
- Innovation-Driven Growth: The installation of the Axon pixel nearly quadrupled by late 2025, enabling e-commerce merchants to optimize ad targeting and lowering barriers for direct-to-consumer engagement, further solidifying AppLovin's leadership in mobile advertising.
- Regulatory Risk Challenges: Despite AppLovin's strong growth momentum, it faces regulatory scrutiny from the SEC and allegations of market manipulation, which could impact its valuation and investor confidence, necessitating careful navigation of potential legal challenges.
See More
Industrial Stocks Show Weak Momentum and High Valuation Concerns
- Lowest Momentum Rating: Axon Enterprise (AXON) tops the list with an F momentum grade and D- valuation grade, indicating weak price performance that may lead to declining investor confidence and affect future capital inflows.
- High Valuation Concerns: Enovix (ENVX) and Paycom Software (PAYC) also received F momentum grades and C valuation grades, suggesting that these companies may be overpriced in the market, prompting investors to carefully assess their investment value.
- Wide Industry Distribution: The list spans various sub-sectors, including Aerospace and Defense, Electrical Components and Equipment, and Human Resource & Employment Services, highlighting the widespread challenges facing the industrial sector that could impact overall market performance.
- Market Environment Impact: As geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties rise, the weakening momentum and high valuations of industrial stocks may lead investors to reassess risks, subsequently affecting overall market liquidity and investment strategies.
See More
Axon Stock Rebounds as Government Deploys Body Cameras
- Stock Rebound: Axon shares rose over 4% in pre-market trading on Tuesday, and if this gain holds during regular trading hours, it will end a four-day losing streak and recover some of its year-to-date losses, indicating a resurgence of market confidence in the company.
- Government Deployment Plan: U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem announced that every officer in Minneapolis will be equipped with body cameras, and as funding becomes available, this program will expand nationwide, likely increasing demand for Axon's products in the public safety sector.
- Surge in Market Sentiment: Retail message volume on Stocktwits surged by 1,275% in the last 24 hours, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment towards Axon from 'bearish' to 'extremely bullish', which could further drive the stock price upward.
- Market Share Advantage: Axon holds approximately 85% of the body camera contract market share among major U.S. cities and public safety buyers, and despite a 31% decline in stock price over the past year, its market leadership provides a strong foundation for future growth.
See More
Ten Large-Cap Stocks with Worst Performance Last Week
- Unity Software Plunge: Unity Software Inc. saw a 31.63% drop this week, primarily due to CEO Matthew Bromberg's social media post about the company and 'world models', raising concerns about its future and potentially undermining investor confidence.
- Hecla Mining Decline: Hecla Mining Company experienced a 33.33% decrease this week, as President Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair strengthened the dollar, reducing demand for safe-haven assets and negatively impacting precious metal stocks.
- UnitedHealth Target Cuts: UnitedHealth Group Incorporated fell 17.87% this week after multiple analyst firms lowered their price targets, reflecting market concerns over its future profitability and prompting investors to reassess their holdings.
- First Majestic Silver Drop: First Majestic Silver Corp. decreased by 22.86% this week amid a broader weakness in the precious metals market, leading to investor unease regarding the company's outlook and potentially affecting its financing and expansion plans.
See More
Axon Stock Declines Amid Broader SaaS Sell-Off
- Significant Stock Drop: Axon's shares fell 19.1% this week, despite the absence of company-specific negative news, reflecting a broader sell-off trend in high-priced SaaS stocks that may impact investor confidence.
- Market Sentiment Shift: This week, industry giants like Microsoft, ServiceNow, and SAP experienced double-digit declines, even though their earnings reports were largely in line with expectations, indicating a notable shift in market sentiment towards the software sector, affecting Axon as well.
- Valuation Context: With a current price-to-sales ratio of 16, Axon is still considered expensive, but this represents a significantly more attractive price compared to its trading levels over the past year and a half, potentially offering a buying opportunity for investors.
- Future Earnings Expectations: Axon is set to report its fourth-quarter earnings on February 24, with analysts forecasting a 31.3% revenue growth to $755.3 million, but a drop in adjusted earnings per share from $2.08 to $1.60 due to increased spending on new technologies and acquisitions, making this a crucial moment to assess its market position.
See More
Axon Shares Plunge 19.1% Amid Broader SaaS Sell-Off
- Stock Price Decline: Axon Enterprise's shares fell 19.1% this week without any specific negative news, indicating a broader sell-off in the software-as-a-service (SaaS) sector due to concerns over AI disruption and high valuations, reflecting a significant shift in market sentiment.
- Market Performance Analysis: As of Friday noon, Axon's stock primarily dropped on Wednesday and Thursday, despite earnings results from industry giants like Microsoft, ServiceNow, and SAP being in line with estimates, their stocks still saw double-digit declines, exacerbating market unease.
- Strong Competitive Advantages: Despite the competitive threat from AI, Axon has established a robust competitive edge with its TASERs and body cameras, along with software that manages evidence and records, making it a clear leader in law enforcement technology that is unlikely to be unseated in the short term.
- Future Outlook: Axon currently trades at a price-to-sales ratio of 16, which, while not cheap, is an improvement compared to its trading levels over the past year and a half; the company is expected to report fourth-quarter earnings on February 24, with revenue projected to grow 31.3% to $755.3 million, although adjusted earnings per share are anticipated to decline, reflecting increased spending on new technology investments.
See More
AppLovin Transforms into Ad Giant, Challenging Amazon
- Competitive Market Positioning: AppLovin's AXON 2.0 machine learning advertising engine successfully attracts non-gaming advertisers, with total revenue projected to reach $9.3 billion in 2026, indicating a nearly 70% growth compared to 2025 and showcasing its strong competitive edge in the ad tech space.
- Advertising Spend Surge: BofA forecasts that AppLovin's ad spend will hit $6.7 billion, with quarterly advertising revenue surpassing $1 billion, reflecting the company's rapid expansion and enhanced profitability in the advertising market.
- Innovation-Driven Growth: The installation of the Axon pixel nearly quadrupled by late 2025, enabling e-commerce merchants to optimize ad targeting and lowering barriers for direct-to-consumer engagement, further solidifying AppLovin's leadership in mobile advertising.
- Regulatory Risk Challenges: Despite AppLovin's strong growth momentum, it faces regulatory scrutiny from the SEC and allegations of market manipulation, which could impact its valuation and investor confidence, necessitating careful navigation of potential legal challenges.
See More
