Stock Market Bubble Reemerges: AI-Induced Irrational Exuberance
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 3 hours ago
0mins
Source: Fool
- Market Peaks: As of May 27, 2026, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite all reached record highs, indicating a strong rebound driven by artificial intelligence; however, this rapid rise raises concerns about future market stability.
- Irrational Exuberance Warning: Former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan coined the term 'irrational exuberance' in 1996, and current market valuations are reminiscent of that era, with the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hitting 42.32, nearing historical highs and suggesting potential market correction risks.
- Double-Edged Sword of AI: While the rapid adoption of AI technology has propelled sales growth for businesses, many companies have yet to optimize their AI solutions for profit enhancement; historical trends indicate that technology bubbles often accompany overly optimistic market expectations, leading to significant future losses.
- SpaceX IPO Bubble Characteristics: SpaceX aims for a $1.75 trillion valuation in its IPO, yet with projected 2025 sales of only $18.67 billion, its valuation is between 80 and 94 times sales, reflecting excessive market optimism and exacerbating signs of irrational exuberance.
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Analyst Views on NVDA
Wall Street analysts forecast NVDA stock price to rise
41 Analyst Rating
39 Buy
1 Hold
1 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 214.250
Low
200.00
Averages
264.97
High
352.00
Current: 214.250
Low
200.00
Averages
264.97
High
352.00
About NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation is an artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure company. The Company is engaged in accelerated computing to help solve the challenging computational problems. Its segments include Compute & Networking and Graphics. The Compute & Networking segment includes its Data Center accelerated computing and networking platforms and AI solutions and software, and automotive platforms and autonomous and electric vehicle solutions, including software. The Graphics segment includes GeForce GPUs for gaming and personal computers (PCs), and Quadro/NVIDIA RTX GPUs for enterprise workstation graphics. Its technology stack includes the foundational NVIDIA CUDA development platform that runs on all NVIDIA GPUs, as well as hundreds of domain-specific software libraries, frameworks, algorithms, software development kits (SDKs), and application programming interfaces (APIs). Its platforms address four markets, which include Data Center, Gaming, Professional Visualization, and Automotive.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Nvidia's Data Center Business Outlook is Positive
- Revenue Concentration: In Q1, Nvidia reported total revenue of $81.6 billion, with $75.2 billion coming from its data center division, indicating a strong reliance on this segment, which may lead the company to further shift focus away from gaming to enhance its competitive edge in data centers.
- Strong Capex Expectations: The four major hyperscalers are projected to spend around $650 billion on capital expenditures in 2023, with expectations to exceed $1 trillion by 2027, positioning Nvidia to benefit significantly from this massive spending, driving future growth.
- Significant Growth Rate: Nvidia's revenue grew by 85% year-over-year in Q1, a remarkable figure for a megacap company, suggesting that the market has yet to fully recognize its value; if valued similarly to peers, Nvidia's stock could be 2 to 3 times its current price, highlighting its undervalued potential.
- Increased Investment Confidence: With Nvidia's products at the core of a multitrillion-dollar infrastructure build-out, the unique combination of growth, value, and limited risk enhances investor confidence in its future performance, suggesting it will strongly outperform the S&P 500.
See More
Nvidia's Dominance in Data Center Market Continues to Grow
- Market Dominance: Nvidia's increasing dominance in the data center market indicates its growing competitiveness in AI technology, which could significantly impact future market dynamics.
- Potential Trillionaire: The rapid advancement of AI technology has sparked discussions about the possibility of the world's first trillionaire, suggesting immense wealth creation opportunities within the industry.
- Key Technology Supplier: A little-known company labeled as an 'Indispensable Monopoly' provides critical technology for both Nvidia and Intel, highlighting its importance and influence within the entire ecosystem.
- Investment Advice: Despite Nvidia's strong market performance, the analyst team identified 10 best stocks that do not include Nvidia, advising investors to carefully consider their investment decisions.
See More
Hyperscalers' AI Investments Set to Surge
- Surge in AI Investments: Hyperscalers are projected to exceed $1 trillion in AI spending within a few years, with Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang asserting that the demand for computing power will drive continued investment, thereby boosting revenue and enhancing market competitiveness.
- Competitive Pressure: Huang emphasizes that hyperscalers must maintain high levels of AI investment to prevent rivals from gaining an edge, creating a pressure that will compel them to increase their spending in the AI sector.
- Nvidia Stock Valuation Potential: Analysts may be underestimating growth opportunities in AI, leading to Nvidia's PEG ratio of 0.66 appearing low, suggesting that the stock could be undervalued, making the current price an attractive entry point for investors who believe in the growth of AI expenditures.
- Long-Term Holding Strategy: Although Nvidia's valuation reflects significant growth expectations, for investors willing to hold long-term, the current stock price remains appealing, with future returns potentially lower than the high growth seen in recent years, yet still worthy of consideration.
See More
Jensen Huang: AI Spending to Exceed $4 Trillion
- AI Spending Outlook: Nvidia projects that global AI spending could exceed $4 trillion by 2030, indicating the immense potential of the AI market, which could further drive Nvidia's stock price upward.
- Investment in Computing Power: Jensen Huang emphasizes that hyperscalers must continue to invest in computing capabilities, as 'compute is profit,' directly impacting demand for Nvidia's chips and infrastructure, thereby boosting company revenue.
- Increased Competitive Pressure: As the AI arms race intensifies, hyperscalers must demonstrate returns on their AI investments, as any slowdown in spending could allow rivals to gain an advantage, potentially affecting Nvidia's market position.
- Valuation Potential: Analysts note that Nvidia's PEG ratio stands at 0.66, suggesting that the market may be undervaluing its future growth potential; if AI spending grows as expected, Nvidia's stock could be viewed as a highly attractive investment opportunity.
See More
Analysis of Polkadot's Future Prospects
- Price Volatility: Since launching at $2.69 in 2020, Polkadot reached a record high of $54.98 in 2021 but now trades around $1, indicating significant volatility and declining investor confidence in the crypto market.
- Technical Architecture: Polkadot's Layer-0 'Relay Chain' structure allows for multiple independent Layer-1 parachains to develop applications, which, while innovative, still results in a developer ecosystem that is minuscule compared to Ethereum, limiting its market appeal.
- Market Competition: Despite launching its first spot price ETF in 2023, Polkadot has not garnered the same attention as Bitcoin or Ether's ETFs, leading investors to view it as a smaller alternative lacking long-term advantages, which could further depress its price.
- Investment Advice: Analysts recommend that investors consider other better-performing stocks before buying Polkadot, indicating a lack of confidence in its future returns compared to other blue-chip stocks.
See More
Zscaler Shares Plunge 30% After Weak Q3 Outlook
- Strong Revenue Performance: Zscaler reported a 25% year-over-year revenue increase in Q3, reaching $850.5 million, which surpassed management's previous guidance of $834-$836 million, indicating robust performance among existing customers.
- Weak Outlook Guidance: Despite solid revenue results, the company forecasts only a 22% revenue growth for Q4, estimating between $875 million and $878 million, which falls short of the $878.6 million consensus, reflecting management's cautious stance on future growth.
- Executive Departures Impact: The departure of two sales executives has heightened investor concerns, particularly as the company struggles to attract new customers, which could hinder future sales growth and market share.
- Lackluster ARR Growth: While the acquisition of Red Canary is projected to contribute $136 million in ARR, the overall ARR growth is expected to be only 16%-17%, indicating weakness in the core business and an uncertain growth outlook ahead.
See More
Nvidia's Data Center Business Outlook is Positive
- Revenue Concentration: In Q1, Nvidia reported total revenue of $81.6 billion, with $75.2 billion coming from its data center division, indicating a strong reliance on this segment, which may lead the company to further shift focus away from gaming to enhance its competitive edge in data centers.
- Strong Capex Expectations: The four major hyperscalers are projected to spend around $650 billion on capital expenditures in 2023, with expectations to exceed $1 trillion by 2027, positioning Nvidia to benefit significantly from this massive spending, driving future growth.
- Significant Growth Rate: Nvidia's revenue grew by 85% year-over-year in Q1, a remarkable figure for a megacap company, suggesting that the market has yet to fully recognize its value; if valued similarly to peers, Nvidia's stock could be 2 to 3 times its current price, highlighting its undervalued potential.
- Increased Investment Confidence: With Nvidia's products at the core of a multitrillion-dollar infrastructure build-out, the unique combination of growth, value, and limited risk enhances investor confidence in its future performance, suggesting it will strongly outperform the S&P 500.
See More
Nvidia's Dominance in Data Center Market Continues to Grow
- Market Dominance: Nvidia's increasing dominance in the data center market indicates its growing competitiveness in AI technology, which could significantly impact future market dynamics.
- Potential Trillionaire: The rapid advancement of AI technology has sparked discussions about the possibility of the world's first trillionaire, suggesting immense wealth creation opportunities within the industry.
- Key Technology Supplier: A little-known company labeled as an 'Indispensable Monopoly' provides critical technology for both Nvidia and Intel, highlighting its importance and influence within the entire ecosystem.
- Investment Advice: Despite Nvidia's strong market performance, the analyst team identified 10 best stocks that do not include Nvidia, advising investors to carefully consider their investment decisions.
See More
Hyperscalers' AI Investments Set to Surge
- Surge in AI Investments: Hyperscalers are projected to exceed $1 trillion in AI spending within a few years, with Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang asserting that the demand for computing power will drive continued investment, thereby boosting revenue and enhancing market competitiveness.
- Competitive Pressure: Huang emphasizes that hyperscalers must maintain high levels of AI investment to prevent rivals from gaining an edge, creating a pressure that will compel them to increase their spending in the AI sector.
- Nvidia Stock Valuation Potential: Analysts may be underestimating growth opportunities in AI, leading to Nvidia's PEG ratio of 0.66 appearing low, suggesting that the stock could be undervalued, making the current price an attractive entry point for investors who believe in the growth of AI expenditures.
- Long-Term Holding Strategy: Although Nvidia's valuation reflects significant growth expectations, for investors willing to hold long-term, the current stock price remains appealing, with future returns potentially lower than the high growth seen in recent years, yet still worthy of consideration.
See More
Jensen Huang: AI Spending to Exceed $4 Trillion
- AI Spending Outlook: Nvidia projects that global AI spending could exceed $4 trillion by 2030, indicating the immense potential of the AI market, which could further drive Nvidia's stock price upward.
- Investment in Computing Power: Jensen Huang emphasizes that hyperscalers must continue to invest in computing capabilities, as 'compute is profit,' directly impacting demand for Nvidia's chips and infrastructure, thereby boosting company revenue.
- Increased Competitive Pressure: As the AI arms race intensifies, hyperscalers must demonstrate returns on their AI investments, as any slowdown in spending could allow rivals to gain an advantage, potentially affecting Nvidia's market position.
- Valuation Potential: Analysts note that Nvidia's PEG ratio stands at 0.66, suggesting that the market may be undervaluing its future growth potential; if AI spending grows as expected, Nvidia's stock could be viewed as a highly attractive investment opportunity.
See More
Analysis of Polkadot's Future Prospects
- Price Volatility: Since launching at $2.69 in 2020, Polkadot reached a record high of $54.98 in 2021 but now trades around $1, indicating significant volatility and declining investor confidence in the crypto market.
- Technical Architecture: Polkadot's Layer-0 'Relay Chain' structure allows for multiple independent Layer-1 parachains to develop applications, which, while innovative, still results in a developer ecosystem that is minuscule compared to Ethereum, limiting its market appeal.
- Market Competition: Despite launching its first spot price ETF in 2023, Polkadot has not garnered the same attention as Bitcoin or Ether's ETFs, leading investors to view it as a smaller alternative lacking long-term advantages, which could further depress its price.
- Investment Advice: Analysts recommend that investors consider other better-performing stocks before buying Polkadot, indicating a lack of confidence in its future returns compared to other blue-chip stocks.
See More
Zscaler Shares Plunge 30% After Weak Q3 Outlook
- Strong Revenue Performance: Zscaler reported a 25% year-over-year revenue increase in Q3, reaching $850.5 million, which surpassed management's previous guidance of $834-$836 million, indicating robust performance among existing customers.
- Weak Outlook Guidance: Despite solid revenue results, the company forecasts only a 22% revenue growth for Q4, estimating between $875 million and $878 million, which falls short of the $878.6 million consensus, reflecting management's cautious stance on future growth.
- Executive Departures Impact: The departure of two sales executives has heightened investor concerns, particularly as the company struggles to attract new customers, which could hinder future sales growth and market share.
- Lackluster ARR Growth: While the acquisition of Red Canary is projected to contribute $136 million in ARR, the overall ARR growth is expected to be only 16%-17%, indicating weakness in the core business and an uncertain growth outlook ahead.
See More
