SpaceX Officially Joins Nasdaq-100 Index
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1 hour ago
0mins
Source: Fool
- Nasdaq-100 Inclusion: SpaceX officially joins the Nasdaq-100 today and is set to begin trading on July 7, marking the fastest entry into the index in history, which reflects strong market appeal and investor confidence.
- Forced Buying Effect: The inclusion in major indexes will trigger forced buying from passive funds, with over $800 billion of investor money expected to flow into SpaceX, further driving its stock price upward.
- Lock-Up Pressure: While joining the index is bullish for the stock, the gradual expiration of lock-up provisions will allow insiders and employees to sell shares, potentially putting short-term pressure on the stock, with expected volatility over the next five to six months.
- Market Expectations and Patience: With a current market cap of approximately $2.1 trillion, investors have already priced in some success for SpaceX, so it is advisable for investors to wait until after the lock-up period ends to make decisions, allowing for better assessment of the company's technology and market outlook.
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Analyst Views on SPCX
Wall Street analysts forecast SPCX stock price to rise
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Current: 153.230
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Current: 153.230
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About SPCX
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. designs, manufactures, launches, and operates products and services built on technologies, including rockets and spacecraft. The Company's segments include Space, Connectivity, and artificial intelligence (AI). Its Space segment designs, manufactures, and launches reusable rockets to provide access to space. Its Connectivity segment operates broadband data and communications network powered by approximately 9,600 Starlink broadband and mobile satellites in Low-Earth orbit, delivering connectivity to consumer, enterprises, and government customers over 164 countries, territories, and other markets. In its AI segment, it operates a vertically integrated AI platform spanning its truth-seeking frontier model Grok, AI solutions for consumer and enterprise customers, X-its real-time information, entertainment, and free speech platform and AI computational infrastructure.
About the author

Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
- Historic IPO Achievement: SpaceX debuted on June 12, marking the largest IPO in market history, with its stock price soaring to approximately $202 three days post-IPO, reflecting a 50% increase from the initial price of $135.
- Stock Price Fluctuations: Although currently trading above the IPO price, shares have dipped below $155, nearing the opening price of $150, indicating market caution regarding future performance, with analysts assigning an average price target of $188, suggesting a potential upside of about 24%.
- Revenue and Market Potential: SpaceX's Starlink internet service generated an operating profit of $4.4 billion in 2025, despite an overall net loss of about $5 billion, highlighting its massive market potential, with a projected total addressable market of $28.5 trillion.
- Investor Sentiment Shift: Despite initial excitement surrounding the IPO, market expectations for SpaceX have begun to wane over time, as historically many IPOs underperform in their first year, prompting investors to carefully assess long-term investment opportunities.
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- IPO Pricing and Market Performance: SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 per share on June 12, soaring approximately 66% within four trading days to $225, reaching a valuation near $3 trillion, although it subsequently retraced over 30% to around $153, still maintaining a valuation of about $2 trillion, indicating strong market expectations for its future growth.
- Index Fund Inclusion: Just five trading days post-IPO, SpaceX entered the CRSP US Total Market Index on June 18, expected to generate $4–7 billion in passive inflows, marking its significant presence in American retirement accounts.
- Subsequent Index Additions: On June 29, SpaceX was added to the Russell 1000 index, anticipated to attract $6–9 billion in buying, followed by its entry into MSCI US indexes, expected to bring in another $3–5 billion, further solidifying its market impact.
- Rule Changes and Market Implications: The new rules allowed SpaceX to enter major indices with only 4% float, reflecting a shift in market liquidity requirements for large companies, a trend that may enable more firms like OpenAI and Anthropic to quickly enter the market, altering investors' asset allocation strategies.
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- Historic IPO: SpaceX went public on June 12 at $135 per share, achieving a valuation of $1.77 trillion, marking the largest IPO in history and reflecting strong market expectations for its future growth.
- Stock Price Volatility: Just four days post-IPO, SpaceX's stock surged to $225.64, briefly boosting its market cap to $2.66 trillion, but it has since fallen to around $160, reducing its market cap to $2.02 trillion, indicating concerns over its high valuation.
- Profitability Issues: While SpaceX claims revenue could exceed $1 trillion by 2030, its current price-to-sales ratio stands at 106 times, and losses from its space division and xAI acquisition severely impact profitability, necessitating cautious investor evaluation of its future performance.
- Bitcoin Investment Appeal: As SpaceX's stock declines, investors may refocus on Bitcoin, which remains attractive in the long term, especially amid loose monetary policies and tightening supply, potentially drawing in more investors.
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- Nasdaq-100 Inclusion: SpaceX officially joins the Nasdaq-100 today and is set to begin trading on July 7, marking the fastest entry into the index in history, which reflects strong market appeal and investor confidence.
- Forced Buying Effect: The inclusion in major indexes will trigger forced buying from passive funds, with over $800 billion of investor money expected to flow into SpaceX, further driving its stock price upward.
- Lock-Up Pressure: While joining the index is bullish for the stock, the gradual expiration of lock-up provisions will allow insiders and employees to sell shares, potentially putting short-term pressure on the stock, with expected volatility over the next five to six months.
- Market Expectations and Patience: With a current market cap of approximately $2.1 trillion, investors have already priced in some success for SpaceX, so it is advisable for investors to wait until after the lock-up period ends to make decisions, allowing for better assessment of the company's technology and market outlook.
See More
- Valuation Controversy: Bahnsen labeled SpaceX's 120x revenue valuation as 'bubblicious' on CNBC, arguing that even a successful Starlink cannot justify such a high multiple, indicating market concerns about its future profitability.
- Industry Comparison: SpaceX's valuation significantly exceeds Verizon's 1.4x sales and T-Mobile's 2.2x sales, reflecting an unreasonable premium in the traditional telecom sector that may lead investors to reassess their risk exposure.
- Market Reaction: After pricing its IPO at $135 and briefly reaching $225, SpaceX now trades at $160, suggesting many retail investors are likely at a loss, which indicates a lack of confidence in its future performance.
- Lockup Period Impact: Bahnsen holds SpaceX shares through a locked SPV and plans to sell upon expiration unless Starlink demonstrates sufficient revenue growth to narrow the valuation gap with traditional telecom companies.
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- Market Rally: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are on track to end a five-session losing streak on Monday, indicating a rebound in market sentiment, particularly with Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta Platforms leading the recovery, which could boost investor confidence.
- Healthcare Sector Surge: Corning and Palo Alto Networks reached all-time highs during Monday's session, reflecting a resurgence in the healthcare sector, which may attract more capital into this previously undervalued area, further driving industry growth.
- Executive Changes Impact: Goldman Sachs served as the exclusive financial advisor for Martin Marietta's $13.5 billion acquisition of Lhoist North America and provided fully committed debt financing, showcasing its strong performance in investment banking, which could enhance its market position.
- Economic Data Focus: This week will see the release of the consumer confidence survey and the JOLTS report, which are expected to influence market sentiment, especially ahead of the upcoming non-farm payroll report, prompting investors to closely monitor these economic indicators.
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