SpaceX Debuts with Nearly $2 Trillion Valuation
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1 hour ago
0mins
Source: Fool
- Significant Valuation Increase: SpaceX debuted on June 12 with a valuation nearing $2 trillion, and by June 18, it added approximately $500 billion, indicating strong market confidence in its future potential; however, with a price-to-sales ratio of 130, it reflects extremely high investor expectations for future growth.
- Complex Business Structure: SpaceX operates three main segments: space, connectivity, and artificial intelligence, with Starlink being the primary revenue driver, generating $11.4 billion in 2023, yet average revenue per user has dropped from $86 to $66, indicating pressure on future growth.
- Limited Market Opportunities: While SpaceX leads in the launch sector, the global launch market is only about $22 billion, expected to grow at 15% annually over the next decade, and even maintaining dominance, a projected $100 billion market by 2036 seems conservative.
- Underperforming AI Division: SpaceX's AI segment is currently its worst-performing unit, incurring losses and failing to compete with models like ChatGPT; although new compute leasing deals may improve cash flow, the overall valuation narrative appears fragile.
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About SPCX
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. designs, manufactures, launches, and operates products and services built on technologies, including rockets and spacecraft. The Company's segments include Space, Connectivity, and artificial intelligence (AI). Its Space segment designs, manufactures, and launches reusable rockets to provide access to space. Its Connectivity segment operates broadband data and communications network powered by approximately 9,600 Starlink broadband and mobile satellites in Low-Earth orbit, delivering connectivity to consumer, enterprises, and government customers over 164 countries, territories, and other markets. In its AI segment, it operates a vertically integrated AI platform spanning its truth-seeking frontier model Grok, AI solutions for consumer and enterprise customers, X-its real-time information, entertainment, and free speech platform and AI computational infrastructure.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
SpaceX Stock Volatility and Long-Term Investment Outlook
- Stock Volatility Analysis: SpaceX closed down 3.6% on its fifth day of trading, marking an 18% decline from its all-time high of $225.64 on June 16, although it remains significantly up from its IPO price of $135, indicating market uncertainty about its future.
- Financial Performance Overview: The company reported a net loss of $4.94 billion in 2025, with its primary revenue driver being the Starlink satellite network; however, its AI initiative through xAI could present greater growth potential, with the first AI compute satellites expected to launch in 2028.
- Market Supply-Demand Dynamics: SpaceX raised $75 billion by selling 555 million shares at $135 each, but currently, only about 5% of total shares are available for trading, which could increase to 37% by late August, highlighting a scarcity of shares in the market.
- Investment Strategy Recommendation: Given its current market cap exceeding $2 trillion, investors should approach SpaceX cautiously, suggesting it be added to a watch list to monitor technological and market developments rather than making investment decisions based solely on stock price fluctuations.
See More
SpaceX's Stock Soars Nearly 50% Post-IPO, Market Value Hits $2.6 Trillion
- Strong IPO Performance: SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 per share, opened at $150, and closed at $160.95, yielding a roughly 19% gain for investors on the first day, reflecting robust market demand and investor confidence.
- Market Leadership: In 2025, SpaceX completed 161 commercial launches, capturing 82% of the U.S. market share and carrying over 80% of global satellite and spacecraft weight, solidifying its position as an industry leader.
- Starlink Business Growth: Starlink generated $11.4 billion in revenue in 2025, becoming SpaceX's only profitable segment, although the average revenue per user fell to $66, indicating increased competition and pricing pressures in the market.
- AI Revenue Growth and Risks: SpaceX's AI revenue reached $3.2 billion in 2025, up 22.2% year-over-year, but faced $6.4 billion in operating losses and $12.7 billion in capital expenditures, highlighting significant execution risks and uncertainty regarding future profitability.
See More
SpaceX's Historic IPO Debut Surpasses Expectations
- Overstated Market Size: In its S-1 IPO filing, SpaceX claims a total addressable market of $28.5 trillion, with 93% from its AI division, which exceeds the total revenues of the S&P 500, indicating an overly optimistic market outlook.
- Limited Space Business Scale: While the launch and satellite business is central to SpaceX, it only represents a $370 billion market, with the global launch market at about $22 billion today, expected to grow to $100 billion by 2036, making SpaceX's valuation of over $2.5 trillion seem unrealistic.
- xAI Financial Struggles: xAI's flagship model Grok has fallen behind competitors, with a decline in subscribers by 2026, and a cash burn of approximately $1 billion per month; the $60 billion acquisition of Cursor may worsen cash flow issues, despite new deals with Anthropic and Alphabet promising $2.5 billion monthly revenue.
- Flawed Governance Structure: Musk controls 85% of the voting power, leaving ordinary shareholders with minimal influence, and prohibiting class action lawsuits or proposal voting, highlighting significant governance transparency issues.
See More
KeyBanc's Cautious Appraisal of SpaceX
- Valuation Reflects Growth Potential: KeyBanc Capital Markets initiated coverage of SpaceX with a Sector Weight rating, suggesting that the stock's current price already reflects much of its long-term growth potential, despite significant disruptive growth avenues in aerospace and satellite sectors.
- Market Capitalization Analysis: SpaceX's market capitalization stands at approximately $2.2 trillion, with shares up about 27% since its IPO, yet down over 20% from its peak, indicating a cautious market sentiment regarding its future performance.
- Enterprise Value Assessment: KeyBanc estimates SpaceX's enterprise value at around $1.02 trillion based on discounted future cash flows from Starlink and other connectivity businesses, which is less than half of its current enterprise value, suggesting that investors may be overly optimistic about future prospects.
- Liquidity Uncertainty: The potential unlocking of insider shares later this summer may create near-term liquidity uncertainty for SpaceX, as only about 5% of its roughly 13 billion shares were available for trading at IPO, with more shares set to be released gradually, impacting market supply and demand dynamics.
See More
SpaceX Transforms into Neocloud Provider, Boosting Industry Players
- Business Transformation: SpaceX is transitioning into a neocloud provider, evidenced by recent deals with Anthropic and Google, which are expected to establish substantial compute capacity by 2028, benefiting companies like Nvidia and Intel.
- Credo Rating Upgrade: GF Securities initiated coverage on Credo (CRDO) with a Buy rating, anticipating its AEC business will benefit from SpaceX's compute capacity expansion, setting a target price of $343, reflecting optimism about future optical revenue.
- Optical Revenue Growth: GF forecasts Credo's optical revenue to reach $600 million in FY27E and $1.65 billion in FY28E, driven by customer diversification and expanding optical supply chains, which are expected to propel company growth.
- Infrastructure Monetization: SpaceX is monetizing its Colossus compute capacity by leasing it out, demonstrating a rapid data center deployment capability that significantly outpaces industry benchmarks, with lower construction costs supporting its new cloud business model.
See More
SpaceX Launches $20 Billion Bond Offering to Repay Debt
- Bond Offering Purpose: SpaceX aims to raise at least $20 billion through its inaugural bond offering to repay a significant portion of its $29.1 billion debt, indicating a pressing need for financial management and liquidity enhancement.
- Credit Rating Insights: Fitch and Moody's assigned ratings of BBB+ and Baa1 to SpaceX's unsecured bonds, respectively, highlighting the company's dominant position in orbital launches and the recurring revenue from Starlink, reflecting market confidence in its financial health.
- Liquidity Status: As of June 19, 2026, SpaceX reported over $100.8 billion in cash and cash equivalents, with pro forma liquidity expected to exceed $90 billion post-transaction, bolstering its capital market financing capabilities.
- Market Reaction: Despite a more than 5% drop in SpaceX shares during Monday's opening trade, retail sentiment on Stocktwits remained bullish, indicating investor confidence in the company's future growth potential.
See More
SpaceX Stock Volatility and Long-Term Investment Outlook
- Stock Volatility Analysis: SpaceX closed down 3.6% on its fifth day of trading, marking an 18% decline from its all-time high of $225.64 on June 16, although it remains significantly up from its IPO price of $135, indicating market uncertainty about its future.
- Financial Performance Overview: The company reported a net loss of $4.94 billion in 2025, with its primary revenue driver being the Starlink satellite network; however, its AI initiative through xAI could present greater growth potential, with the first AI compute satellites expected to launch in 2028.
- Market Supply-Demand Dynamics: SpaceX raised $75 billion by selling 555 million shares at $135 each, but currently, only about 5% of total shares are available for trading, which could increase to 37% by late August, highlighting a scarcity of shares in the market.
- Investment Strategy Recommendation: Given its current market cap exceeding $2 trillion, investors should approach SpaceX cautiously, suggesting it be added to a watch list to monitor technological and market developments rather than making investment decisions based solely on stock price fluctuations.
See More
SpaceX's Stock Soars Nearly 50% Post-IPO, Market Value Hits $2.6 Trillion
- Strong IPO Performance: SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 per share, opened at $150, and closed at $160.95, yielding a roughly 19% gain for investors on the first day, reflecting robust market demand and investor confidence.
- Market Leadership: In 2025, SpaceX completed 161 commercial launches, capturing 82% of the U.S. market share and carrying over 80% of global satellite and spacecraft weight, solidifying its position as an industry leader.
- Starlink Business Growth: Starlink generated $11.4 billion in revenue in 2025, becoming SpaceX's only profitable segment, although the average revenue per user fell to $66, indicating increased competition and pricing pressures in the market.
- AI Revenue Growth and Risks: SpaceX's AI revenue reached $3.2 billion in 2025, up 22.2% year-over-year, but faced $6.4 billion in operating losses and $12.7 billion in capital expenditures, highlighting significant execution risks and uncertainty regarding future profitability.
See More
SpaceX's Historic IPO Debut Surpasses Expectations
- Overstated Market Size: In its S-1 IPO filing, SpaceX claims a total addressable market of $28.5 trillion, with 93% from its AI division, which exceeds the total revenues of the S&P 500, indicating an overly optimistic market outlook.
- Limited Space Business Scale: While the launch and satellite business is central to SpaceX, it only represents a $370 billion market, with the global launch market at about $22 billion today, expected to grow to $100 billion by 2036, making SpaceX's valuation of over $2.5 trillion seem unrealistic.
- xAI Financial Struggles: xAI's flagship model Grok has fallen behind competitors, with a decline in subscribers by 2026, and a cash burn of approximately $1 billion per month; the $60 billion acquisition of Cursor may worsen cash flow issues, despite new deals with Anthropic and Alphabet promising $2.5 billion monthly revenue.
- Flawed Governance Structure: Musk controls 85% of the voting power, leaving ordinary shareholders with minimal influence, and prohibiting class action lawsuits or proposal voting, highlighting significant governance transparency issues.
See More
KeyBanc's Cautious Appraisal of SpaceX
- Valuation Reflects Growth Potential: KeyBanc Capital Markets initiated coverage of SpaceX with a Sector Weight rating, suggesting that the stock's current price already reflects much of its long-term growth potential, despite significant disruptive growth avenues in aerospace and satellite sectors.
- Market Capitalization Analysis: SpaceX's market capitalization stands at approximately $2.2 trillion, with shares up about 27% since its IPO, yet down over 20% from its peak, indicating a cautious market sentiment regarding its future performance.
- Enterprise Value Assessment: KeyBanc estimates SpaceX's enterprise value at around $1.02 trillion based on discounted future cash flows from Starlink and other connectivity businesses, which is less than half of its current enterprise value, suggesting that investors may be overly optimistic about future prospects.
- Liquidity Uncertainty: The potential unlocking of insider shares later this summer may create near-term liquidity uncertainty for SpaceX, as only about 5% of its roughly 13 billion shares were available for trading at IPO, with more shares set to be released gradually, impacting market supply and demand dynamics.
See More
SpaceX Transforms into Neocloud Provider, Boosting Industry Players
- Business Transformation: SpaceX is transitioning into a neocloud provider, evidenced by recent deals with Anthropic and Google, which are expected to establish substantial compute capacity by 2028, benefiting companies like Nvidia and Intel.
- Credo Rating Upgrade: GF Securities initiated coverage on Credo (CRDO) with a Buy rating, anticipating its AEC business will benefit from SpaceX's compute capacity expansion, setting a target price of $343, reflecting optimism about future optical revenue.
- Optical Revenue Growth: GF forecasts Credo's optical revenue to reach $600 million in FY27E and $1.65 billion in FY28E, driven by customer diversification and expanding optical supply chains, which are expected to propel company growth.
- Infrastructure Monetization: SpaceX is monetizing its Colossus compute capacity by leasing it out, demonstrating a rapid data center deployment capability that significantly outpaces industry benchmarks, with lower construction costs supporting its new cloud business model.
See More
SpaceX Launches $20 Billion Bond Offering to Repay Debt
- Bond Offering Purpose: SpaceX aims to raise at least $20 billion through its inaugural bond offering to repay a significant portion of its $29.1 billion debt, indicating a pressing need for financial management and liquidity enhancement.
- Credit Rating Insights: Fitch and Moody's assigned ratings of BBB+ and Baa1 to SpaceX's unsecured bonds, respectively, highlighting the company's dominant position in orbital launches and the recurring revenue from Starlink, reflecting market confidence in its financial health.
- Liquidity Status: As of June 19, 2026, SpaceX reported over $100.8 billion in cash and cash equivalents, with pro forma liquidity expected to exceed $90 billion post-transaction, bolstering its capital market financing capabilities.
- Market Reaction: Despite a more than 5% drop in SpaceX shares during Monday's opening trade, retail sentiment on Stocktwits remained bullish, indicating investor confidence in the company's future growth potential.
See More
