Rocket Lab's Stock Quadruples Amid Rapid Growth
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1 hour ago
0mins
Source: Fool
- Surge in Launches: Rocket Lab's Electron rocket has launched 10 times in 2023 and is projected to reach 16 launches in 2024 and 21 in 2025, demonstrating strong growth potential in the small satellite launch market, particularly with clients like NASA and the U.S. Space Development Agency.
- Strategic Business Expansion: By acquiring laser communications provider Mynaric, Rocket Lab aims to evolve into an 'end-to-end' space services company, and it has secured its largest contract worth $816 million to design and manufacture 18 satellites, further solidifying its position in the satellite defense sector.
- Revenue Growth Expectations: Analysts forecast Rocket Lab's revenue to surge from $602 million in 2025 to $1.59 billion by 2028; while these estimates should be taken with caution, they indicate significant growth potential in the nascent space exploration market.
- Optimistic Valuation Outlook: With a market cap of $63 billion, Rocket Lab trades at 68.5 times this year's sales, projected to drop to 39.5 times by 2028, suggesting that while it may not be a bargain, its potential transformation into a space services giant could justify its premium valuation.
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Analyst Views on RKLB
Wall Street analysts forecast RKLB stock price to fall
11 Analyst Rating
7 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 108.230
Low
63.00
Averages
86.89
High
120.00
Current: 108.230
Low
63.00
Averages
86.89
High
120.00
About RKLB
Rocket Lab Corporation is an end-to-end space company. The Company designs and manufactures small and medium-class rockets, spacecraft and spacecraft components, and related software and services to support the space economy. The Company delivers reliable launch services, satellite manufacture, spacecraft design services, spacecraft components, spacecraft manufacturing, and other spacecraft and on-orbit management solutions that make it easier to access space. Its Launch Services segment provides launch and launch-related services to customers on a dedicated mission or ride-share basis. Its Space Systems segment comprises the design and manufacture of spacecraft components and spacecraft program management services, space data applications, and mission operations. Its space systems solutions are the building blocks for spacecraft, which include composite structures, reaction wheels, star trackers, solar solutions, radios, separation systems, and command and control spacecraft software.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Investment Comparison: SpaceX vs. Rocket Lab
- Market Size Comparison: SpaceX generated $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025 with an IPO target valuation of $1.77 trillion, while Rocket Lab only achieved $602 million in revenue, reflecting a significant disparity in market scale.
- Profitability Analysis: Neither company is profitable yet, but SpaceX's Starlink business contributed $4.4 billion in operating income in 2025, serving as its main profit driver, whereas Rocket Lab's free cash flow was negative $321.8 million in 2025, leaving its profitability outlook uncertain.
- Technology and Product Differences: SpaceX has transformed into a diversified tech company, with 93% of its market opportunities stemming from AI and other non-space businesses, while Rocket Lab focuses on aerospace, becoming the second-largest launch provider in the U.S. with its Electron rocket, and the successful launch of its Neutron rocket will directly challenge SpaceX's core business.
- Risks and Valuation: Both companies face execution risks, with Rocket Lab's Neutron rocket experiencing multiple delays, while SpaceX's AI segment lost $6.4 billion in 2025, prompting investors to consider their high valuations and potential strategic risks.
See More
SpaceX IPO Set to Become Largest in History
- Staggering Valuation: SpaceX is set to go public on June 12 with a target valuation of $1.77 trillion, equating to 95 times its projected 2025 sales, reflecting strong market confidence in its future growth.
- Oversubscription: The IPO is more than four times oversubscribed, indicating heightened investor enthusiasm that could lead to a significant price surge on its debut, further solidifying its market position.
- Alternative Investment Opportunities: Investors are advised to consider Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile, both of which will benefit from the same growth trends in the space market while presenting lower volatility compared to SpaceX, thus reducing investment risk.
- Future Growth Potential: Analysts project that Rocket Lab's revenue will more than double from 2025 to 2028, while AST's revenue is expected to surge over 26 times, showcasing the strong growth potential of these companies in the space industry, making them attractive investment options.
See More
SpaceX Set to Achieve Largest IPO in History
- Historic IPO: SpaceX plans to issue over 555.5 million shares at $135 each, raising approximately $75 billion and achieving a valuation of about $1.77 trillion, positioning it as the seventh or eighth most valuable company globally, highlighting its significant role in the rapidly growing space economy.
- Revenue Growth and Losses: Despite generating $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025, a 33% year-over-year increase, SpaceX recorded a net loss of $4.9 billion, indicating financial challenges amid rapid expansion, while adjusted EBITDA of $6.6 billion suggests potential profitability.
- Intensifying Competition: SpaceX's Starlink segment generated $11.4 billion in revenue in 2025, up 50%, but faces threats from competitors like Amazon, necessitating ongoing market share growth to maintain profitability in a competitive landscape.
- AI Business Outlook: SpaceX's AI segment achieved $3.2 billion in revenue in 2025, despite a $6.3 billion operating loss due to R&D spending; however, a $920 million monthly deal with Alphabet is expected to significantly improve its financial outlook.
See More
Rocket Lab Expands Space Services Amid SpaceX IPO Buzz
- Increased Launch Frequency: Rocket Lab has successfully launched 88 rockets to date and plans to expand its business by adding more orbital and spacecraft manufacturing services, which is expected to significantly enhance its market share and revenue potential.
- Satellite Network Expansion: AST SpaceMobile aims to deploy 45 to 60 satellites in orbit by the end of 2026, with a long-term goal of reaching 248 satellites, thereby enhancing its capability to provide wireless satellite connections in rural areas and driving revenue growth.
- Significant Revenue Projections: Analysts expect Rocket Lab's revenue to more than double from 2025 to 2028, while AST's revenue is projected to surge over 26 times, indicating substantial growth potential for both companies in the coming years.
- Market Competitive Advantage: Although Rocket Lab and AST do not directly compete with SpaceX, they will benefit from growth in the same markets, and both stocks appear more attractive relative to SpaceX in terms of near-term growth potential.
See More
Rocket Lab's Stock Quadruples Amid Rapid Growth
- Surge in Launches: Rocket Lab's Electron rocket has launched 10 times in 2023 and is projected to reach 16 launches in 2024 and 21 in 2025, demonstrating strong growth potential in the small satellite launch market, particularly with clients like NASA and the U.S. Space Development Agency.
- Strategic Business Expansion: By acquiring laser communications provider Mynaric, Rocket Lab aims to evolve into an 'end-to-end' space services company, and it has secured its largest contract worth $816 million to design and manufacture 18 satellites, further solidifying its position in the satellite defense sector.
- Revenue Growth Expectations: Analysts forecast Rocket Lab's revenue to surge from $602 million in 2025 to $1.59 billion by 2028; while these estimates should be taken with caution, they indicate significant growth potential in the nascent space exploration market.
- Optimistic Valuation Outlook: With a market cap of $63 billion, Rocket Lab trades at 68.5 times this year's sales, projected to drop to 39.5 times by 2028, suggesting that while it may not be a bargain, its potential transformation into a space services giant could justify its premium valuation.
See More
Space Economy Undergoes Major Transformation
- Upcoming IPO Wave: SpaceX is set to debut with an expected share price of around $135, potentially valuing the company in the trillions, which will inject unprecedented capital into the space sector, boosting valuations and market interest in related firms.
- Index Restructuring Impact: The Russell 3000 Index will include commercial space companies like Starfighters Space on June 29, 2026, indicating growing acceptance of the space industry by mainstream investors, likely attracting around $12.2 trillion in passive capital flows.
- Accelerated Market Response: Starfighters Space successfully entered the Russell 3000 within seven months of its IPO, and while its fundamentals may not improve immediately, this change will significantly enhance its market visibility and attract more institutional investor attention.
- Structural Industry Shift: With the IPOs of SpaceX and other space companies, the investment landscape of the space economy is rapidly expanding, leading more investors to focus on this emerging field and driving future capital inflows and listings.
See More
Investment Comparison: SpaceX vs. Rocket Lab
- Market Size Comparison: SpaceX generated $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025 with an IPO target valuation of $1.77 trillion, while Rocket Lab only achieved $602 million in revenue, reflecting a significant disparity in market scale.
- Profitability Analysis: Neither company is profitable yet, but SpaceX's Starlink business contributed $4.4 billion in operating income in 2025, serving as its main profit driver, whereas Rocket Lab's free cash flow was negative $321.8 million in 2025, leaving its profitability outlook uncertain.
- Technology and Product Differences: SpaceX has transformed into a diversified tech company, with 93% of its market opportunities stemming from AI and other non-space businesses, while Rocket Lab focuses on aerospace, becoming the second-largest launch provider in the U.S. with its Electron rocket, and the successful launch of its Neutron rocket will directly challenge SpaceX's core business.
- Risks and Valuation: Both companies face execution risks, with Rocket Lab's Neutron rocket experiencing multiple delays, while SpaceX's AI segment lost $6.4 billion in 2025, prompting investors to consider their high valuations and potential strategic risks.
See More
SpaceX IPO Set to Become Largest in History
- Staggering Valuation: SpaceX is set to go public on June 12 with a target valuation of $1.77 trillion, equating to 95 times its projected 2025 sales, reflecting strong market confidence in its future growth.
- Oversubscription: The IPO is more than four times oversubscribed, indicating heightened investor enthusiasm that could lead to a significant price surge on its debut, further solidifying its market position.
- Alternative Investment Opportunities: Investors are advised to consider Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile, both of which will benefit from the same growth trends in the space market while presenting lower volatility compared to SpaceX, thus reducing investment risk.
- Future Growth Potential: Analysts project that Rocket Lab's revenue will more than double from 2025 to 2028, while AST's revenue is expected to surge over 26 times, showcasing the strong growth potential of these companies in the space industry, making them attractive investment options.
See More
SpaceX Set to Achieve Largest IPO in History
- Historic IPO: SpaceX plans to issue over 555.5 million shares at $135 each, raising approximately $75 billion and achieving a valuation of about $1.77 trillion, positioning it as the seventh or eighth most valuable company globally, highlighting its significant role in the rapidly growing space economy.
- Revenue Growth and Losses: Despite generating $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025, a 33% year-over-year increase, SpaceX recorded a net loss of $4.9 billion, indicating financial challenges amid rapid expansion, while adjusted EBITDA of $6.6 billion suggests potential profitability.
- Intensifying Competition: SpaceX's Starlink segment generated $11.4 billion in revenue in 2025, up 50%, but faces threats from competitors like Amazon, necessitating ongoing market share growth to maintain profitability in a competitive landscape.
- AI Business Outlook: SpaceX's AI segment achieved $3.2 billion in revenue in 2025, despite a $6.3 billion operating loss due to R&D spending; however, a $920 million monthly deal with Alphabet is expected to significantly improve its financial outlook.
See More
Rocket Lab Expands Space Services Amid SpaceX IPO Buzz
- Increased Launch Frequency: Rocket Lab has successfully launched 88 rockets to date and plans to expand its business by adding more orbital and spacecraft manufacturing services, which is expected to significantly enhance its market share and revenue potential.
- Satellite Network Expansion: AST SpaceMobile aims to deploy 45 to 60 satellites in orbit by the end of 2026, with a long-term goal of reaching 248 satellites, thereby enhancing its capability to provide wireless satellite connections in rural areas and driving revenue growth.
- Significant Revenue Projections: Analysts expect Rocket Lab's revenue to more than double from 2025 to 2028, while AST's revenue is projected to surge over 26 times, indicating substantial growth potential for both companies in the coming years.
- Market Competitive Advantage: Although Rocket Lab and AST do not directly compete with SpaceX, they will benefit from growth in the same markets, and both stocks appear more attractive relative to SpaceX in terms of near-term growth potential.
See More
Rocket Lab's Stock Quadruples Amid Rapid Growth
- Surge in Launches: Rocket Lab's Electron rocket has launched 10 times in 2023 and is projected to reach 16 launches in 2024 and 21 in 2025, demonstrating strong growth potential in the small satellite launch market, particularly with clients like NASA and the U.S. Space Development Agency.
- Strategic Business Expansion: By acquiring laser communications provider Mynaric, Rocket Lab aims to evolve into an 'end-to-end' space services company, and it has secured its largest contract worth $816 million to design and manufacture 18 satellites, further solidifying its position in the satellite defense sector.
- Revenue Growth Expectations: Analysts forecast Rocket Lab's revenue to surge from $602 million in 2025 to $1.59 billion by 2028; while these estimates should be taken with caution, they indicate significant growth potential in the nascent space exploration market.
- Optimistic Valuation Outlook: With a market cap of $63 billion, Rocket Lab trades at 68.5 times this year's sales, projected to drop to 39.5 times by 2028, suggesting that while it may not be a bargain, its potential transformation into a space services giant could justify its premium valuation.
See More
Space Economy Undergoes Major Transformation
- Upcoming IPO Wave: SpaceX is set to debut with an expected share price of around $135, potentially valuing the company in the trillions, which will inject unprecedented capital into the space sector, boosting valuations and market interest in related firms.
- Index Restructuring Impact: The Russell 3000 Index will include commercial space companies like Starfighters Space on June 29, 2026, indicating growing acceptance of the space industry by mainstream investors, likely attracting around $12.2 trillion in passive capital flows.
- Accelerated Market Response: Starfighters Space successfully entered the Russell 3000 within seven months of its IPO, and while its fundamentals may not improve immediately, this change will significantly enhance its market visibility and attract more institutional investor attention.
- Structural Industry Shift: With the IPOs of SpaceX and other space companies, the investment landscape of the space economy is rapidly expanding, leading more investors to focus on this emerging field and driving future capital inflows and listings.
See More
