<Research>Jefferies Slashes TPs for YUE YUEN IND/ POU SHENG INT'L; 2Q Results Miss Mkt Forecast
YUE YUEN IND and POU SHENG INT'L Performance: Both companies' 2Q25 results met broker expectations but fell over 10% short of market forecasts due to pressure on OEM profit margins, attributed to uneven order distribution and rising labor costs.
Target Price Adjustments: Jefferies has lowered its target prices for YUE YUEN IND from HKD8 to HKD7.4 and for POU SHENG INT'L from HKD1 to HKD0.84, maintaining an Underperform rating for YUE YUEN and a Buy rating for POU SHENG.
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Yue Yuen Industrial Performance: Yue Yuen Industrial (00551.HK) experienced a decline in share price, with management warning of uncertainties in OEM shipment volume, average selling price, and gross margin for Q1 2026.
Analyst Ratings: Jefferies downgraded Yue Yuen to Underperform, reducing its target price from $7.4 to $7, citing anticipated declines in OEM business profit and free cash flow, which could impact dividends.
Pou Sheng International Outlook: Pou Sheng International (03813.HK) was rated as a Buy by Jefferies, although its target price was lowered from $0.84 to $0.72.
Market Activity: Short selling for Yue Yuen reached $39.43 million, with a short selling ratio of 34.529%, indicating significant market skepticism regarding its future performance.

Revenue Decline: YUE YUEN IND reported a 4.6% year-over-year decline in OEM revenue for 4Q25, primarily due to an 8.1% drop in shipment volume, although this was partially offset by a 5.2% increase in average selling price.
Cautious Outlook: Management expressed a cautious outlook for the OEM business in 2026, indicating that average selling prices and sales volumes may remain flat or slightly decrease, with order visibility weakening to about 2-3 months.
Stock Valuation: Despite a strong share price performance relative to OEM peers since April 2025, Daiwa considers YUE YUEN IND's stock valuation reasonable compared to its competitors.
Downgrade and Target Price Adjustment: Daiwa downgraded YUE YUEN IND from Buy to Hold and reduced its target price from $19.25 to $16.8, reflecting a more cautious view on shoemakers compared to apparel OEMs for 2026.

CICC Coverage Initiation: CICC has initiated coverage on YUE YUEN IND (00551.HK) with an Outperform rating and a target price of HKD 19.46.
Business Potential: The report highlights the significant potential of YUE YUEN IND's sports shoe business and its concentrated market structure, emphasizing its position as a leading manufacturer in the sector.

CICC Coverage Initiation: CICC has initiated coverage on YUE YUEN IND (00551.HK) with an "Outperform" rating and a target price of $19.46, reflecting a 10.5x PE ratio for 2026.
Market Position: YUE YUEN IND is the world's largest sports shoe manufacturer, with an estimated shipment share exceeding 10%, and its subsidiary Pou Sheng International is a leading retailer in Greater China.
Global Market Insights: The global sports shoe market was valued at $167.7 billion in 2024, with expected mid-single-digit growth over the next five years, and the top 10 brands are projected to hold a 57% market share by 2025.
Short Selling Activity: The company has reported short selling of $6.34 million, with a short selling ratio of 22.208%.

Stock Performance: YUE YUEN IND (00551.HK) experienced a decline of 1.792%, with a short selling amount of $95.37 million and a ratio of 41.564%.
Revenue Decline: The company reported a net consolidated operating revenue of approximately USD 660 million for November 2025, reflecting a 3.1% year-over-year decrease.
Year-to-Date Revenue: For the first eleven months of 2025, the net consolidated accumulative operating revenue was around USD 7.382 billion, which is a 1.6% decrease compared to the previous year.
Market Data Note: The stock quote for HK stocks is delayed by at least 15 minutes, and the short selling data is as of December 10, 2025.

China's Consumption Sector Outlook: CLSA forecasts that China's consumption sector will focus on niche market development, with high-end consumption benefiting from easing monetary policy and improved stock market conditions.
Target Price Adjustments: CLSA has raised the target price for YUE YUEN IND from $16 to $18 and set a target of $13 for CHOW TAI FOOK, emphasizing the importance of upcoming peak season sales.
Art Toy Sector Analysis: The target price for POP MART has been cut to $303, with expectations that future growth may hinge on intellectual property development beyond current offerings.
Investment Recommendations: CLSA suggests investors monitor the earnings potential of companies like LI NING, ETERNAL BEAUTY, and CTG DUTY-FREE, highlighting their recent performance and short selling ratios.





