Raises FY26 Revenue View to $133M-$140M
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: May 05 2026
0mins
Should l Buy FWRG?
Raises FY26 revenue view to $133M-$140M from $132M-$140M. Backs FY26 same-restaurant sales growth view up 1%-3%
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Analyst Views on FWRG
Wall Street analysts forecast FWRG stock price to rise
8 Analyst Rating
7 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 10.760
Low
17.00
Averages
21.75
High
24.00
Current: 10.760
Low
17.00
Averages
21.75
High
24.00
About FWRG
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. is a holding company. The Company operates and franchises restaurants in approximately 32 states operating under the First Watch trade name, which are focused on made-to-order breakfast, brunch and lunch. It is engaged in serving made-to-order breakfast, brunch and lunch using the freshest ingredients. Its menu includes elevated executions of classic favorites for breakfast, brunch and lunch, such as our protein-packed Breakfast Quinoa Bowl, Chickichanga and Avocado Toast. It also offers fresh juices, including Morning Meditation and Kale Tonic. The Company operates restaurants through its wholly owned subsidiary, First Watch Restaurants, Inc., and is a franchisor through its wholly owned subsidiary, First Watch Franchise Development Co. Its subsidiaries include AI Fresh Parent, Inc., First Watch E&I Restaurant Group, LLC, First Watch Franchise Development Co., First Watch Restaurants Texas, LLC, and others.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Three Stocks to Be Cautious About Under $50
- First Watch Risks: First Watch (FWRG) trades at $11.42, with lagging same-store sales over the past two years suggesting a need for pricing and marketing strategy adjustments to stimulate demand, while its 8x net-debt-to-EBITDA ratio could force unfavorable capital raises if market conditions worsen.
- Energizer Growth Challenges: Energizer (ENR) is priced at $17.66, lacking organic revenue growth over the past two years, with anticipated sales growth of only 1.9% for the next year, and a 5x net-debt-to-EBITDA ratio making lenders hesitant to extend additional capital, potentially necessitating dilutive equity offerings.
- Pennant Group Financial Strain: Pennant Group (PNTG) has a stock price of $35.36, with a modest revenue base of $1.02 billion limiting its fixed cost leverage, a poor free cash flow margin of 1.9% over the last five years restricting growth investments, and a high net-debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 6x increasing the risk of forced asset sales.
- Market Environment Shift: The current market is rapidly separating quality stocks from expensive ones, requiring investors to be cautious in their selections to avoid overvalued stocks amidst fast-changing market dynamics.
See More
First Watch Restaurant Group Reports Strong Q1 Earnings, Shares Rise
- Earnings Growth: First Watch Restaurant Group reported a Q1 earnings per share of negative $0.04, slightly below analysts' expectations, yet its 17% sales growth surpassed market forecasts, indicating robust market performance.
- Store Expansion: The company opened 16 new restaurants across 11 states, bringing its total to 648, with guidance for 59 to 63 new openings by 2026, further solidifying its market position.
- Sales Guidance: First Watch reiterated its same-store sales growth forecast of 1% to 3% and overall sales growth of 12% to 14%, providing a positive outlook for investors and contributing to the stock price increase.
- Cash Flow and Investment: The company generates approximately $130 million in cash from operations annually, and despite projected capital expenditures of $150 million to $160 million in 2026, strong cash flow will support its expansion plans and reduce shareholder dilution risks.
See More
First Watch Restaurant Group Q1 2026 Earnings Call Insights
- Sales Growth Performance: First Watch Restaurant Group reported a same-store sales growth of 2.8% in Q1, achieving an 18.5% restaurant-level operating profit margin while expanding to 648 locations with the opening of 16 new restaurants, indicating positive progress in market expansion and profitability.
- Revenue and Profit Outlook: Total revenue for the first quarter reached $331 million, reflecting a 17.3% year-over-year increase, with management reiterating fiscal 2026 same-store sales and total revenue growth guidance, while raising adjusted EBITDA expectations to $133 million to $140 million, showcasing confidence in future performance.
- Digital Marketing Rollout: The digital marketing campaign's coverage increased from approximately one-third in 2025 to 75%, with several million dollars in marketing spend pulled forward into Q2, aimed at enhancing customer engagement and market competitiveness to drive sales growth further.
- Cost and Risk Management: Despite a 2% decline in same-store traffic, management noted that weather negatively impacted around 100 basis points, while commodity inflation is expected to remain between 1% and 3%, reflecting a cautious approach to external challenges.
See More
First Watch Restaurant Q1 Earnings Beat Expectations
- Significant Revenue Growth: First Watch Restaurant reported Q1 revenue of $331 million, reflecting a 17.3% year-over-year increase, surpassing market expectations by $1.65 million, indicating strong performance in the dining sector.
- System-wide Sales Increase: System-wide sales rose 13.8% to $367.6 million, showcasing the company's successful strategies in expansion and customer attraction, despite same-store sales growth being only 2.8%.
- Updated Outlook: The company revised its adjusted EBITDA forecast for fiscal year 2026 to between $133 million and $140 million, demonstrating management's confidence in future profitability while maintaining guidance for same-store sales growth of 1% to 3%.
- Capital Expenditure Plans: First Watch plans to invest $150 million to $160 million primarily in new restaurant projects and remodels, with a target of adding 59 to 63 new system-wide restaurants, including the closure of 3 company-owned locations, reflecting a commitment to business expansion and optimization.
See More
First Watch Restaurant Group Reports 17.3% Revenue Growth in Q1
- Significant Revenue Growth: First Watch Restaurant Group reported total revenue of $331 million in Q1, reflecting a 17.3% year-over-year increase, demonstrating strong market performance despite a decline in traffic.
- Stable Same-Store Sales: Same-store sales grew by 2.8% even with overall traffic declines, indicating effective strategies in maintaining customer loyalty and boosting sales, thereby enhancing competitive positioning.
- Improved Profitability: The restaurant-level operating profit margin increased from 16.5% to 18.5% compared to the same period last year, showcasing the company's success in cost control and operational efficiency, further solidifying its financial health.
- Ongoing Expansion Plans: The company opened 16 new restaurants across 11 states, with one planned closure, bringing the total to 648 locations, reflecting its continued efforts to expand market share and strengthen brand presence.
See More
Wall Street Analysts Adjust Ratings
- Analyst Rating Updates: Top Wall Street analysts have adjusted their ratings on several companies, reflecting the latest market perspectives on these stocks, which could influence investor decisions and market trends.
- Overview of Rating Changes: While specific upgrades and downgrades are not detailed, the overall rating changes may lead to short-term volatility in related stocks, prompting investors to stay alert.
- Expected Market Reaction: Analyst rating adjustments typically attract market attention, potentially affecting investor confidence and trading volumes, thereby impacting stock prices.
- Impact on Investor Decisions: Investors considering buying CAVA stock should pay attention to analysts' views to make more informed investment decisions, even though specific recommendations are not provided in this article.
See More
Three Stocks to Be Cautious About Under $50
- First Watch Risks: First Watch (FWRG) trades at $11.42, with lagging same-store sales over the past two years suggesting a need for pricing and marketing strategy adjustments to stimulate demand, while its 8x net-debt-to-EBITDA ratio could force unfavorable capital raises if market conditions worsen.
- Energizer Growth Challenges: Energizer (ENR) is priced at $17.66, lacking organic revenue growth over the past two years, with anticipated sales growth of only 1.9% for the next year, and a 5x net-debt-to-EBITDA ratio making lenders hesitant to extend additional capital, potentially necessitating dilutive equity offerings.
- Pennant Group Financial Strain: Pennant Group (PNTG) has a stock price of $35.36, with a modest revenue base of $1.02 billion limiting its fixed cost leverage, a poor free cash flow margin of 1.9% over the last five years restricting growth investments, and a high net-debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 6x increasing the risk of forced asset sales.
- Market Environment Shift: The current market is rapidly separating quality stocks from expensive ones, requiring investors to be cautious in their selections to avoid overvalued stocks amidst fast-changing market dynamics.
See More
First Watch Restaurant Group Reports Strong Q1 Earnings, Shares Rise
- Earnings Growth: First Watch Restaurant Group reported a Q1 earnings per share of negative $0.04, slightly below analysts' expectations, yet its 17% sales growth surpassed market forecasts, indicating robust market performance.
- Store Expansion: The company opened 16 new restaurants across 11 states, bringing its total to 648, with guidance for 59 to 63 new openings by 2026, further solidifying its market position.
- Sales Guidance: First Watch reiterated its same-store sales growth forecast of 1% to 3% and overall sales growth of 12% to 14%, providing a positive outlook for investors and contributing to the stock price increase.
- Cash Flow and Investment: The company generates approximately $130 million in cash from operations annually, and despite projected capital expenditures of $150 million to $160 million in 2026, strong cash flow will support its expansion plans and reduce shareholder dilution risks.
See More
First Watch Restaurant Group Q1 2026 Earnings Call Insights
- Sales Growth Performance: First Watch Restaurant Group reported a same-store sales growth of 2.8% in Q1, achieving an 18.5% restaurant-level operating profit margin while expanding to 648 locations with the opening of 16 new restaurants, indicating positive progress in market expansion and profitability.
- Revenue and Profit Outlook: Total revenue for the first quarter reached $331 million, reflecting a 17.3% year-over-year increase, with management reiterating fiscal 2026 same-store sales and total revenue growth guidance, while raising adjusted EBITDA expectations to $133 million to $140 million, showcasing confidence in future performance.
- Digital Marketing Rollout: The digital marketing campaign's coverage increased from approximately one-third in 2025 to 75%, with several million dollars in marketing spend pulled forward into Q2, aimed at enhancing customer engagement and market competitiveness to drive sales growth further.
- Cost and Risk Management: Despite a 2% decline in same-store traffic, management noted that weather negatively impacted around 100 basis points, while commodity inflation is expected to remain between 1% and 3%, reflecting a cautious approach to external challenges.
See More
First Watch Restaurant Q1 Earnings Beat Expectations
- Significant Revenue Growth: First Watch Restaurant reported Q1 revenue of $331 million, reflecting a 17.3% year-over-year increase, surpassing market expectations by $1.65 million, indicating strong performance in the dining sector.
- System-wide Sales Increase: System-wide sales rose 13.8% to $367.6 million, showcasing the company's successful strategies in expansion and customer attraction, despite same-store sales growth being only 2.8%.
- Updated Outlook: The company revised its adjusted EBITDA forecast for fiscal year 2026 to between $133 million and $140 million, demonstrating management's confidence in future profitability while maintaining guidance for same-store sales growth of 1% to 3%.
- Capital Expenditure Plans: First Watch plans to invest $150 million to $160 million primarily in new restaurant projects and remodels, with a target of adding 59 to 63 new system-wide restaurants, including the closure of 3 company-owned locations, reflecting a commitment to business expansion and optimization.
See More
First Watch Restaurant Group Reports 17.3% Revenue Growth in Q1
- Significant Revenue Growth: First Watch Restaurant Group reported total revenue of $331 million in Q1, reflecting a 17.3% year-over-year increase, demonstrating strong market performance despite a decline in traffic.
- Stable Same-Store Sales: Same-store sales grew by 2.8% even with overall traffic declines, indicating effective strategies in maintaining customer loyalty and boosting sales, thereby enhancing competitive positioning.
- Improved Profitability: The restaurant-level operating profit margin increased from 16.5% to 18.5% compared to the same period last year, showcasing the company's success in cost control and operational efficiency, further solidifying its financial health.
- Ongoing Expansion Plans: The company opened 16 new restaurants across 11 states, with one planned closure, bringing the total to 648 locations, reflecting its continued efforts to expand market share and strengthen brand presence.
See More
Wall Street Analysts Adjust Ratings
- Analyst Rating Updates: Top Wall Street analysts have adjusted their ratings on several companies, reflecting the latest market perspectives on these stocks, which could influence investor decisions and market trends.
- Overview of Rating Changes: While specific upgrades and downgrades are not detailed, the overall rating changes may lead to short-term volatility in related stocks, prompting investors to stay alert.
- Expected Market Reaction: Analyst rating adjustments typically attract market attention, potentially affecting investor confidence and trading volumes, thereby impacting stock prices.
- Impact on Investor Decisions: Investors considering buying CAVA stock should pay attention to analysts' views to make more informed investment decisions, even though specific recommendations are not provided in this article.
See More
