Positive Phase 2 Results for Jiangsu Hengrui and Kailera's Obesity Drug
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1h ago
0mins
Should l Buy LLY?
Source: seekingalpha
- Clinical Trial Results: Jiangsu Hengrui and Kailera's GLP-1/GIP dual agonist ribupatide demonstrated a 12.1% average weight reduction at the highest doses after 26 weeks in a Chinese trial, comparable to Eli Lilly's 12.4%, indicating strong potential in the obesity treatment market.
- Dose Effect Analysis: Ribupatide achieved a consistent 12.1% weight loss at both 25 mg and 50 mg doses, while the 10 mg dose resulted in only 6.9%, with no plateau in weight loss observed across all doses, highlighting the drug's sustained efficacy.
- Adverse Event Monitoring: The trial reported vomiting rates of 11.4% at 25 mg and 7.5% at 50 mg, with nausea rates at 22.7% and 20.0%, respectively, indicating the need for careful monitoring of patient tolerability in clinical applications.
- Market Competition Dynamics: Despite ribupatide's promising clinical outcomes, Eli Lilly's orforglipron is expected to launch first, with an FDA action date set for April 10, potentially putting pressure on ribupatide's market prospects.
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Analyst Views on LLY
Wall Street analysts forecast LLY stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for LLY is 1192 USD with a low forecast of 950.00 USD and a high forecast of 1500 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
20 Analyst Rating
18 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 1044.670
Low
950.00
Averages
1192
High
1500
Current: 1044.670
Low
950.00
Averages
1192
High
1500
About LLY
Eli Lilly and Company is a medicine company, which discovers, develops, manufactures, markets, and sells pharmaceutical products worldwide. Its cardiometabolic health products include Basaglar; Humalog, Humalog Mix 75/25, Humalog U-100, Humalog U-200, Humalog Mix 50/50, insulin lispro, and others; Humulin, Humulin 70/30, and others; Jardiance; Mounjaro; Trulicity; Zepbound; VERVE-102; VERVE-201, and VERVE-301. Its oncology products include Cyramza, Erbitux, Tyvyt, and Verzenio. Its immunology products include Ebglyss, Olumiant, Omvoh, and Taltz. Its neuroscience products include Emgality and Kisunla. The Company is also engaged in radiopharmaceutical discovery, development, and manufacturing efforts, and clinical and pre-clinical radioligand therapies in development for the treatment of cancer. It is also developing an oral small molecule inhibitor of a4b7 integrin for inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). It is evaluating its novel gene therapy candidate, ixoberogene soroparvovec.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Significant Revenue Growth: Eli Lilly's Q4 2025 revenue reached $19.3 billion, marking a 43% year-over-year increase, primarily driven by the robust performance of its GLP-1 products, indicating sustained growth potential in the market.
- Doubling of GLP-1 Sales: Sales of Mounjaro and Zepbound surged by 110% and 123%, respectively, totaling $11.7 billion and accounting for over 60% of the company's total revenue, highlighting the company's heavy reliance on these two drugs.
- Increased Competitive Risks: As other pharmaceutical companies invest billions in developing competing GLP-1 products, Eli Lilly faces heightened market share risks that could impact its future revenue growth and stock performance.
- Valuation Concerns: With a market cap of approximately $950 billion and a price-to-earnings ratio of 46, Eli Lilly's high valuation reflects market expectations for future growth, but also subjects its stock to potential short-term declines, necessitating careful risk assessment by investors.
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- Clinical Trial Results: Jiangsu Hengrui and Kailera's GLP-1/GIP dual agonist ribupatide demonstrated a 12.1% average weight reduction at the highest doses after 26 weeks in a Chinese trial, comparable to Eli Lilly's 12.4%, indicating strong potential in the obesity treatment market.
- Dose Effect Analysis: Ribupatide achieved a consistent 12.1% weight loss at both 25 mg and 50 mg doses, while the 10 mg dose resulted in only 6.9%, with no plateau in weight loss observed across all doses, highlighting the drug's sustained efficacy.
- Adverse Event Monitoring: The trial reported vomiting rates of 11.4% at 25 mg and 7.5% at 50 mg, with nausea rates at 22.7% and 20.0%, respectively, indicating the need for careful monitoring of patient tolerability in clinical applications.
- Market Competition Dynamics: Despite ribupatide's promising clinical outcomes, Eli Lilly's orforglipron is expected to launch first, with an FDA action date set for April 10, potentially putting pressure on ribupatide's market prospects.
See More
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- Fourth-Quarter Earnings Impact: The company's fourth-quarter earnings report, released on Tuesday, may bolster investor confidence in its strong performance.
See More
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- Need for Support: Significant assistance is required for the equity markets to transition away from this dependency.
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- Early Stages: The rotation into these stocks is still in its early phases, indicating potential for growth.
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- Increased Competition: Eli Lilly is currently leading the GLP-1 space with a market valuation nearing $1 trillion, having achieved significant growth through effective GLP-1 drugs, and is expected to launch a new pill this year, which could further enhance its growth prospects.
- Market Fragmentation Risk: Major pharmaceutical companies like Pfizer and Roche are also investing in GLP-1 drugs, which may lead to the introduction of competing products and a fragmented market, necessitating investor attention on the competitive strengths of each company's offerings.
- Side Effects Focus: Many approved and developing GLP-1 drugs offer comparable weight loss, typically around 15% to 20%, so investors should pay close attention to drugs with fewer side effects, as these may prove to be the biggest winners in the market, particularly in terms of patient tolerability.
See More
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- Significant Revenue Growth: Eli Lilly's Q4 2025 revenue reached $19.3 billion, marking a 43% year-over-year increase, primarily driven by the robust performance of its GLP-1 products, indicating sustained growth potential in the market.
- Doubling of GLP-1 Sales: Sales of Mounjaro and Zepbound surged by 110% and 123%, respectively, totaling $11.7 billion and accounting for over 60% of the company's total revenue, highlighting the company's heavy reliance on these two drugs.
- Increased Competitive Risks: As other pharmaceutical companies invest billions in developing competing GLP-1 products, Eli Lilly faces heightened market share risks that could impact its future revenue growth and stock performance.
- Valuation Concerns: With a market cap of approximately $950 billion and a price-to-earnings ratio of 46, Eli Lilly's high valuation reflects market expectations for future growth, but also subjects its stock to potential short-term declines, necessitating careful risk assessment by investors.
See More
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Acquisition Announcement: Lilly has announced its acquisition of Orna Therapeutics, a company focused on advancing cell therapies.
Focus on Cell Therapies: The acquisition aims to enhance Lilly's capabilities in developing innovative cell therapies for various medical conditions.
See More
Positive Phase 2 Results for Jiangsu Hengrui and Kailera's Obesity Drug
- Clinical Trial Results: Jiangsu Hengrui and Kailera's GLP-1/GIP dual agonist ribupatide demonstrated a 12.1% average weight reduction at the highest doses after 26 weeks in a Chinese trial, comparable to Eli Lilly's 12.4%, indicating strong potential in the obesity treatment market.
- Dose Effect Analysis: Ribupatide achieved a consistent 12.1% weight loss at both 25 mg and 50 mg doses, while the 10 mg dose resulted in only 6.9%, with no plateau in weight loss observed across all doses, highlighting the drug's sustained efficacy.
- Adverse Event Monitoring: The trial reported vomiting rates of 11.4% at 25 mg and 7.5% at 50 mg, with nausea rates at 22.7% and 20.0%, respectively, indicating the need for careful monitoring of patient tolerability in clinical applications.
- Market Competition Dynamics: Despite ribupatide's promising clinical outcomes, Eli Lilly's orforglipron is expected to launch first, with an FDA action date set for April 10, potentially putting pressure on ribupatide's market prospects.
See More
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- Gilead Sciences Performance: Shares of Gilead Sciences are outperforming many prominent pharmaceutical companies early in 2026.
- Fourth-Quarter Earnings Impact: The company's fourth-quarter earnings report, released on Tuesday, may bolster investor confidence in its strong performance.
See More
Reasons the Expanding Stock Rotation Isn't Propelling the S&P 500 Beyond Major Tech Companies
- Market Dependency: The S&P 500 is heavily reliant on megacap tech companies for its performance.
- Need for Support: Significant assistance is required for the equity markets to transition away from this dependency.
- Shift in Focus: There is a nascent shift towards investing in "real economy" stocks.
- Early Stages: The rotation into these stocks is still in its early phases, indicating potential for growth.
See More
Analysis of GLP-1 Weight Loss Drug Market Prospects
- Market Size Adjustment: Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for the anti-obesity drug market down from $130 billion to $95 billion, indicating that while still substantial, there may be risks associated with the overly optimistic outlook on GLP-1 drugs, prompting investors to carefully assess market potential.
- Increased Competition: Eli Lilly is currently leading the GLP-1 space with a market valuation nearing $1 trillion, having achieved significant growth through effective GLP-1 drugs, and is expected to launch a new pill this year, which could further enhance its growth prospects.
- Market Fragmentation Risk: Major pharmaceutical companies like Pfizer and Roche are also investing in GLP-1 drugs, which may lead to the introduction of competing products and a fragmented market, necessitating investor attention on the competitive strengths of each company's offerings.
- Side Effects Focus: Many approved and developing GLP-1 drugs offer comparable weight loss, typically around 15% to 20%, so investors should pay close attention to drugs with fewer side effects, as these may prove to be the biggest winners in the market, particularly in terms of patient tolerability.
See More
