Polymarket Sees 54% Chance of U.S. Military Strike on Iran This Month
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 13 2026
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Source: Benzinga
- Rising Strike Odds: Polymarket data indicates that the probability of a U.S. military strike on Iran has surged by 9 percentage points to 54% in the last 24 hours, reflecting heightened market concerns over imminent military action.
- Significant Betting Activity: Approximately $13.7 million has been wagered on the likelihood of military action, indicating a marked increase in investor interest regarding potential U.S. intervention in Iran.
- U.S. Advisory Issued: The U.S. Virtual Embassy has issued an urgent advisory for American citizens to leave Iran immediately, as anti-regime protests have entered their 16th day, resulting in at least 656 fatalities, underscoring the escalating tensions and instability in the region.
- Low Odds for Leadership Change: Despite the rising tensions, the probability of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei being removed from power this month stands at only 20%, reflecting a cautious market sentiment regarding potential political changes within Iran.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
