Polymarket Sees $4.7M Wagering Surge on Khamenei's Potential Ouster
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 09 2026
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Source: Benzinga
- Wagering Surge: In just four days since its launch, the trade volume for the bet on 'Khamenei out as Supreme Leader by January 31?' has surged to $4.7 million, making it one of the most popular bets on Polymarket, surpassing those related to Greenland, tariffs, NBA games, and interest rate cuts.
- Market Expectations: Currently, bettors assign only a 17% chance that Khamenei will be ousted by the end of the month, while placing an 82% bet on him remaining in power, indicating a prevailing confidence in regime stability despite ongoing protests.
- Individual Profits: A bettor named TheBigBlind, who entered the bet at 11% odds of Khamenei's ouster, has reportedly made over $13,000 in profit, highlighting the market's keen interest and potential for lucrative opportunities surrounding this political event.
- Context of Unrest: As protests enter their 12th day, Iranian authorities have imposed a nationwide internet blackout, with reports indicating at least 42 fatalities, including five minors and eight security personnel, underscoring the escalating internal crisis facing the nation.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
