Onto Innovation: The Key Equipment Maker Behind AI Chips
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: May 15 2026
0mins
Source: Fool
- Consistent Growth: Onto Innovation achieved a record revenue of $1.005 billion in fiscal year 2025, reflecting over 220% growth since 2022, which solidifies its critical role in the semiconductor equipment market tied to AI infrastructure spending.
- Optimistic Outlook: The preliminary revenue for Q1 2026 was $292 million, exceeding guidance, while management raised Q2 revenue guidance to $320 million to $330 million, projecting over 30% growth for the full year, indicating strong confidence in future market demand.
- Key Product Advancements: Onto's Dragonfly inspection platform secured a purchase agreement worth over $240 million with a leading high-bandwidth memory manufacturer in Q4 2025, ensuring revenue growth for the coming years and highlighting its leadership in the advanced packaging market.
- Market Competition Risks: Despite an 85% year-to-date stock increase, the high customer concentration poses risks; a slowdown in high-bandwidth memory spending could impact order volumes, necessitating close monitoring of competitors' investment activities.
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Analyst Views on ONTO
Wall Street analysts forecast ONTO stock price to fall
6 Analyst Rating
4 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 274.760
Low
160.00
Averages
201.67
High
260.00
Current: 274.760
Low
160.00
Averages
201.67
High
260.00
About ONTO
Onto Innovation Inc. is engaged in the design, development, manufacture and support of metrology and inspection tools for the semiconductor industry. The Company’s products include Automated Metrology Systems; Integrated Metrology Systems; Silicon Wafer All-surface Inspection/Characterization; Macro Defect Inspection; Automated Defect Classification and Pattern Analysis; Yield Analysis; Opaque Film Metrology, and others. Its products are used by silicon wafer manufacturers, semiconductor integrated circuit fabricators, and advanced packaging manufacturers operating in the semiconductor market. Its products are also used for process control in several other specialty device manufacturing markets, including light-emitting diodes, vertical-cavity surface-emitting lasers, micro-electromechanical systems, CMOS image sensors, silicon and compound semiconductor power devices, analog devices, RF filters, and others. It also offers three advanced product lines, including FAaST, CnCV and MBIR.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Hedging Strategy Impact: While the convertible bond hedging strategy somewhat protects the company from market fluctuations, it may also exacerbate short-term stock volatility, increasing investment risks.
- Future Outlook: Despite facing pullback pressures, Onto Innovation must focus on its fundamentals and market demand to restore investor confidence while ensuring long-term growth potential.
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- Qualcomm Investor Day: Qualcomm is set to host its highly anticipated Investor Day on June 24, discussing growth and diversification strategies in the rapidly evolving AI landscape; JPMorgan maintains a neutral rating but remains optimistic about future performance.
- Nvidia Buy Reiteration: Bank of America reiterates its buy rating on Nvidia after a meeting with management, highlighting the stock's strong performance across the board, particularly following the positive outlook shared during the GTC Taipei conference.
- Tesla Rating Upgrade: JPMorgan upgrades Tesla from underperform to neutral, citing its unique vertical integration across hardware and software products, which positions the company favorably for scaling in the industry.
- Disney Price Target Increase: Rosenblatt raises Disney's price target from $121 to $126, based on optimistic projections for its movie slate, particularly with the upcoming release of Toy Story 5, which is expected to drive earnings growth.
See More
Onto Innovation Shares Pull Back 15%
- Pullback Reasons: Onto Innovation's recent 15% pullback, primarily driven by convertible-related hedging, indicates market caution regarding its future performance, potentially impacting investor confidence.
- Market Reaction Analysis: This pullback may increase short-term selling pressure on the company's stock, affecting its market performance and liquidity, especially in a high-volatility environment.
- Hedging Strategy Impact: While the convertible bond hedging strategy somewhat protects the company from market fluctuations, it may also exacerbate short-term stock volatility, increasing investment risks.
- Future Outlook: Despite facing pullback pressures, Onto Innovation must focus on its fundamentals and market demand to restore investor confidence while ensuring long-term growth potential.
See More
Guardian Point Capital Increases Stake in Ryan Specialty Holdings
- Stake Increase Details: According to an SEC filing dated May 15, 2026, Guardian Point Capital increased its stake in Ryan Specialty Holdings by 75,000 shares in Q1, representing an estimated $3.20 million trade, bringing its total holdings to 575,000 shares, indicating ongoing confidence in the company.
- Stock Price Impact: Despite the increase in shares, the quarter-end value of Ryan Specialty's stake decreased by $6.41 million due to stock price fluctuations, reflecting a 55% decline in share price over the past year, underperforming the S&P 500, which rose 28% during the same period.
- Financial Performance Highlights: Ryan Specialty reported a 15.2% year-over-year revenue increase to $795.2 million in Q1, with adjusted earnings per share rising 20.5% to $0.47, demonstrating strong growth potential even in a challenging insurance market.
- Market Outlook: Management expressed optimism about future market conditions, emphasizing ongoing investments in technology and data capabilities to strengthen competitiveness, and Guardian Point's purchase is seen as a positive response to recent stock weakness, indicating confidence in the company's long-term prospects.
See More
Semiconductor Industry's Greatest Time in History
- Industry Growth Catalyst: Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT) has surged 75% year-to-date, reflecting the equipment shortages triggered by AI data center buildouts, which are expected to drive sustained growth in semiconductor capital equipment spending and further solidify its market leadership.
- Onto Innovation's Potential: Onto Innovation (NYSE:ONTO) achieved a record revenue of $266.87 million in Q4 2025 and signed a volume purchase agreement worth over $240 million with a leading HBM manufacturer, which is anticipated to boost its market share in the semiconductor equipment sector.
- Lam Research's Performance: Lam Research (NASDAQ:LRCX) reported $5.84 billion in revenue for Q1 2023, a 23.76% year-over-year increase, with guidance for the June quarter projecting $6.60 billion, indicating that AI-driven demand is reshaping the semiconductor industry.
- ASML's Market Position: ASML (NASDAQ:ASML) delivered $10.34 billion in revenue in Q1 2026, with management raising the full-year outlook to €36 billion to €40 billion, showcasing strong expectations for chip demand and reinforcing its critical role in the global semiconductor equipment market.
See More
Onto Innovation Receives Multiple Rating Upgrades
- Rating Upgrades: Jefferies raised Onto Innovation's price target from $325 to $350 while maintaining a Buy rating, indicating continued upside in the base business within HBM and CoWoS, with new opportunities emerging.
- Strong Guidance: Oppenheimer also upgraded its price target from $350 to $370, maintaining an Outperform rating, noting that the company pre-announced stronger-than-expected Q1/Q2 guidance, resulting in positive surprises despite not being positioned for a big beat.
- Market Reaction Analysis: Although Onto Innovation's stock dipped after hours due to profit-taking, Oppenheimer believes this reaction should not be over-interpreted, anticipating that investor focus will quickly return to the company's strengthening fundamentals.
- Industry Outlook: Onto Innovation specializes in the design and manufacture of high-performance control metrology, defect inspection, and data analysis systems, and as demand from microelectronics manufacturers increases, the company is poised for sustained growth in the future.
See More
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator Declines
- Market Performance: The NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator fell by 149.3 points to 28,845.07, indicating weakened market sentiment that may impact investor confidence and lead to short-term selling pressure.
- Active Stocks: Nokia Corporation (NOK) saw a decline of $0.38 to $13.36 with a trading volume of 5,011,375 shares, and despite the current recommendation being in the 'buy range', market reactions remain subdued.
- ServiceNow Dynamics: ServiceNow, Inc. (NOW) increased by $5.56 to $108.98 with 2,188,906 shares traded, and over the past four weeks, there have been nine upward revisions in earnings forecasts, reflecting optimistic market expectations for its future performance.
- Other Stock Performances: T1 Energy Inc. (TE) rose slightly by $0.06 to $7.06, currently at 83.06% of its target price of $8.5, indicating cautious optimism in the market regarding its future growth.
See More
