Peabody Energy (BTU) Offers October 31st Options
Put Contract Analysis: The $18.00 put contract for BTU has a bid of $1.03, allowing investors to buy shares at $18.00 while effectively lowering their cost basis to $16.97. There is a 59% chance the contract may expire worthless, potentially yielding a 5.72% return on cash commitment.
Call Contract Overview: The $19.50 call contract has a bid of $0.85, offering a potential total return of 9.94% if the stock is called away at expiration. There is a 52% chance this contract may also expire worthless, allowing investors to retain both shares and premium, resulting in a 4.59% additional return.
Volatility Insights: Both the put and call contracts exhibit an implied volatility of approximately 75%, while the actual trailing twelve-month volatility is calculated at 57%.
YieldBoost Concept: The article discusses the concept of YieldBoost, highlighting the potential annualized returns from both the put and call contracts, which can significantly enhance investor returns.
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- Earnings Announcement Date: Peabody Energy (BTU) is scheduled to announce its Q4 2023 earnings on February 5th before market open, with consensus EPS estimate at $0.06 and revenue estimate at $1.02 billion, reflecting an 8.9% year-over-year decline.
- Performance Expectations: Over the past year, BTU has exceeded EPS estimates 50% of the time and revenue estimates 75% of the time, indicating a degree of stability in the company's profitability.
- Estimate Revisions: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen two upward revisions with no downward adjustments, while revenue estimates have experienced four upward revisions, suggesting increased market confidence in the company's future performance.
- Market Environment Impact: Despite power stocks surging due to AI demand, analysts caution that Peabody Energy's current valuation is hard to justify, advising investors to proceed with caution as the stock may face market correction risks.
- Earnings Performance: Peabody Energy reported a GAAP EPS of $0.08 for Q4 2025, beating estimates by $0.03, indicating a slight improvement in profitability despite an 8.9% year-over-year revenue decline to $1.02 billion, reflecting weak market demand.
- Adjusted EBITDA: The company's adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter was $118.1 million, significantly down from $176.7 million in Q4 2024, highlighting pressure on profitability due to cost control and changing market conditions, which may impact future investment decisions.
- Cash Flow and Liquidity: Peabody generated operating cash flow of $336 million from continuing operations, with cash and cash equivalents reaching $575 million as of December 31, 2025, demonstrating robust liquidity management that can support future capital expenditures.
- Dividend Declaration: The company declared a dividend of $0.075 per share on February 5, 2026, payable on March 10, 2026, to shareholders of record on February 23, 2026, indicating a commitment to shareholder returns while maintaining stable cash flow, thereby enhancing investor confidence.
- Quarterly Dividend Announcement: Peabody Energy has declared a quarterly dividend of $0.075 per share, consistent with previous distributions, indicating the company's stability in the current market despite valuation challenges.
- Yield Information: The forward yield of this dividend stands at 0.86%, reflecting investor choices for stable income, although the market remains cautious about the future performance of energy stocks.
- Payment Schedule: The dividend is payable on March 10, with a record date of February 23 and an ex-dividend date also on February 23, providing investors with a clear timeline for their investment decisions.
- Market Reaction Analysis: While power stocks have surged due to AI demand, analysts caution that Peabody Energy's current valuation is hard to justify, advising investors to proceed with caution, which may impact future stock performance.
- Declining Financial Performance: Peabody reported a net loss of $52.9 million for 2025, translating to a loss of $0.43 per share, a stark contrast to a net income of $370.9 million in 2024, indicating significant adverse impacts from sharply lower coal prices on profitability.
- Adjusted EBITDA Decline: The company's adjusted EBITDA for 2025 was $454.9 million, down 48% from $871.7 million in 2024, reflecting challenges in profitability amid changing market conditions and cost control efforts.
- Longwall Mining Ahead of Schedule: The commencement of longwall mining at the Centurion mine is expected to start two months ahead of schedule, with a targeted annual production of 4.7 million tons, which is anticipated to significantly enhance Peabody's competitiveness in the metallurgical coal market and improve future cash flows and shareholder value.
- Favorable Market Conditions: The rising demand for coal in the U.S., particularly thermal coal, coupled with expanding West Coast export capabilities, positions Peabody to benefit from increased coal generation in the coming years, potentially improving its financial outlook.
- Quarterly Dividend Announcement: Peabody's Board of Directors has declared a quarterly dividend of $0.075 per share, payable on March 10, 2026, to stockholders of record on February 23, 2026, demonstrating the company's ongoing commitment to stable cash flow and shareholder returns.
- Sustainability Commitment: As a leading coal producer, Peabody emphasizes its critical role in providing affordable and reliable energy and steel production, indicating that sustainability will be a core element of its future strategy.
- Financial Health Considerations: The payment of dividends will depend on the company's financial results, cash flow, and cash requirements, reflecting the Board's cautious approach to future economic conditions and operational performance.
- Forward-Looking Statements: Peabody cautions investors that future dividend payments and financial performance are subject to various economic, competitive, and regulatory factors, highlighting the necessity for the company to remain flexible in an uncertain environment.
- Earnings Announcement Schedule: Peabody is set to hold an investor conference call on February 5, 2026, at 10:00 a.m. Central Time to announce its fourth quarter and full-year financial results for 2025, which is expected to impact market perceptions.
- Conference Call Access: Interested participants can join the call using U.S. toll-free number 1 833 816 1387, Canada toll-free number 1 855 669 9657, or international number 1 412 317 0480, ensuring timely access to crucial financial information.
- Webcast and Replay Availability: The call will be webcast live on Peabody's homepage, and a replay will be available afterward on the site, allowing investors who cannot attend live to access the information at their convenience.
- Pre-Release Financial Insights: Peabody will distribute its 2025 earnings report via PR Newswire before market opening on February 5, and the report will also be posted on the company’s website at that time, reflecting the company's commitment to transparency and timely information dissemination.








