Nvidia's Stock Soars 27,380% Over 10 Years, Potential Crash in 2026
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 20 2026
0mins
Should l Buy NVDA?
Source: Fool
- Historical Crashes: Nvidia has faced four significant crashes in the past decade, including a 30% drop in 2019 over two months due to lower-than-expected sales in the data center and gaming markets, leading to a revenue guidance cut that shook investor confidence.
- Pandemic Impact: During the early COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, Nvidia's stock plummeted nearly 38% from February 19 to March 16, a decline steeper than the S&P 500's 30% drop, highlighting the market's sensitivity to tech stocks.
- Recent Performance: From January to April 2025, Nvidia's shares fell 37% due to tariff concerns from the Trump administration, despite a temporary boost from a 10-for-1 stock split in June 2024, which was overshadowed by U.S. restrictions on AI chip exports to China.
- Future Outlook: Although Nvidia's stock has a history of crashes, the current strong demand in the data center market and optimism about AI chip sales suggest a potentially positive performance in 2026, with any crash likely presenting a buying opportunity for investors.
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Analyst Views on NVDA
Wall Street analysts forecast NVDA stock price to rise
41 Analyst Rating
39 Buy
1 Hold
1 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 175.750
Low
200.00
Averages
264.97
High
352.00
Current: 175.750
Low
200.00
Averages
264.97
High
352.00
About NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation is an artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure company. The Company is engaged in accelerated computing to help solve the challenging computational problems. Its segments include Compute & Networking and Graphics. The Compute & Networking segment includes its Data Center accelerated computing and networking platforms and AI solutions and software, and automotive platforms and autonomous and electric vehicle solutions, including software. The Graphics segment includes GeForce GPUs for gaming and personal computers (PCs), and Quadro/NVIDIA RTX GPUs for enterprise workstation graphics. Its technology stack includes the foundational NVIDIA CUDA development platform that runs on all NVIDIA GPUs, as well as hundreds of domain-specific software libraries, frameworks, algorithms, software development kits (SDKs), and application programming interfaces (APIs). Its platforms address four markets, which include Data Center, Gaming, Professional Visualization, and Automotive.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Profitability Improvement: The company reported non-GAAP earnings per share of $1.62, an 82% increase year-over-year, while maintaining an impressive adjusted gross margin of 75.2%, showcasing its strong pricing power and production scale within its hardware ecosystem.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: Management anticipates first-quarter revenue for fiscal 2027 to be approximately $78 billion, indicating that the company's growth in the AI sector is still in its early stages, with the data center business expanding nearly 13 times since fiscal 2023.
- Valuation Outlook Analysis: Despite a current price-to-earnings ratio of about 36, the forward P/E ratio is expected to drop to 21 over the next four quarters, and if the company meets Wall Street's earnings expectations, the stock price could appreciate by 12% over the next year, reaching around $197.
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- Policy Risks: While the opportunities in the Chinese market are significant, uncertainties surrounding government regulations and market access could impact Nvidia's long-term strategic positioning in the region.
- Investment Opportunities: Analysts suggest that despite the high costs associated with re-entering the market, Nvidia could leverage technological innovation and adaptability to capture growth opportunities in China, enhancing its global competitiveness.
- Future Outlook: As demand for AI technology continues to rise in China, Nvidia's market strategy will need to be agile to navigate the complex policy landscape and maximize returns on its investments in the region.
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- Ongoing Technical Challenges: Despite record revenues, Chinese semiconductor companies still lag behind their U.S., South Korean, and Taiwanese counterparts in technological capabilities, particularly in producing advanced chips at scale, facing ongoing pressure from U.S. export controls.
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See More
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- Significant Revenue Growth: Nvidia's revenue in Q4 of fiscal 2026 surged 73% year-over-year to $68.1 billion, primarily driven by its data center segment, which generated $62.3 billion in revenue, up 75% year-over-year.
- Profitability Improvement: The company reported non-GAAP earnings per share of $1.62, an 82% increase year-over-year, while maintaining an impressive adjusted gross margin of 75.2%, showcasing its strong pricing power and production scale within its hardware ecosystem.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: Management anticipates first-quarter revenue for fiscal 2027 to be approximately $78 billion, indicating that the company's growth in the AI sector is still in its early stages, with the data center business expanding nearly 13 times since fiscal 2023.
- Valuation Outlook Analysis: Despite a current price-to-earnings ratio of about 36, the forward P/E ratio is expected to drop to 21 over the next four quarters, and if the company meets Wall Street's earnings expectations, the stock price could appreciate by 12% over the next year, reaching around $197.
See More
Nvidia Reopens Key AI Market in China Amid Risks
- Market Reopening: Nvidia has reopened its operations in China, one of the world's most crucial AI markets, presenting potential for revenue growth despite existing policy risks that complicate the narrative.
- Policy Risks: While the opportunities in the Chinese market are significant, uncertainties surrounding government regulations and market access could impact Nvidia's long-term strategic positioning in the region.
- Investment Opportunities: Analysts suggest that despite the high costs associated with re-entering the market, Nvidia could leverage technological innovation and adaptability to capture growth opportunities in China, enhancing its global competitiveness.
- Future Outlook: As demand for AI technology continues to rise in China, Nvidia's market strategy will need to be agile to navigate the complex policy landscape and maximize returns on its investments in the region.
See More
Microsoft Partners with Japanese Cloud Firms for $10 Billion AI Investment
- Massive Investment: Microsoft has announced a $10 billion investment in Japan from 2026 to 2029 to build AI infrastructure, enhance cybersecurity, and train 1 million engineers and developers by 2030, demonstrating a strong commitment to the Japanese market and strategic foresight in technology development.
- Stock Surge: Following this announcement, shares of Sakura Internet surged by 20.2% on Friday, reflecting market optimism regarding the partnership's potential and likely boosting the performance of related companies in the sector.
- Strategic Partnerships: Microsoft will collaborate with Sakura Internet and SoftBank to provide AI computing resources, including graphics processing units located in Japan, which will not only support the development of domestic large language models but also enhance Japan's competitiveness in the global AI landscape.
- Talent Development Initiative: Microsoft plans to partner with five major Japanese IT companies, including NTT Data, NEC, Fujitsu, and Hitachi, to train 1 million AI professionals by 2030, aiming to meet the growing demand for cloud and AI services in Japan and further solidify its market position.
See More
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- Significant Revenue Growth: Semiconductor Manufacturing International Co. (SMIC) reported a revenue of $9.3 billion for 2025, a 16% increase year-on-year, with projections suggesting revenues could exceed $11 billion in 2026, highlighting the robust growth potential of China's semiconductor sector driven by AI demand.
- Strong Performance from Hua Hong: Hua Hong Semiconductor achieved a record revenue of $659.9 million in Q4, with future sales expected between $650 million and $660 million, reflecting sustained domestic demand for semiconductors and the company's solid market positioning.
- Surge in Memory Chip Demand: ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) saw a 130% year-on-year revenue increase, surpassing 55 billion yuan ($8 billion), indicating the rise of Chinese firms in the high-bandwidth memory market amid global shortages.
- Ongoing Technical Challenges: Despite record revenues, Chinese semiconductor companies still lag behind their U.S., South Korean, and Taiwanese counterparts in technological capabilities, particularly in producing advanced chips at scale, facing ongoing pressure from U.S. export controls.
See More
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- Etsy Sales Decline: Etsy's gross merchandise sales fell by 5.3% year-over-year in 2025, and while there was a slight recovery in Q4 excluding Reverb sales, the overall decrease in active buyers and sellers alongside a drop in net income indicates a weakening market position.
- Nike's Weak Performance: In its Q3 fiscal 2026 report, Nike showed flat year-over-year revenue despite a 5% increase in wholesale revenue, as direct sales declined by 4%, highlighting ongoing market share losses, particularly with a 7% drop in sales in China.
- Tesla's Growth Obstacles: Despite exceeding a $1 trillion market cap, Tesla's revenue dipped by 3% year-over-year in 2025, with a 10% decline in automobile sales and a 46% drop in GAAP net income, indicating significant challenges in sustaining growth in the electric vehicle market.
- Investor Confidence Shaken: With the declining performance of Etsy, Nike, and Tesla, investor confidence in these once high-flying stocks is waning, prompting analysts to suggest considering divestment ahead of upcoming earnings reports to avoid potential larger losses.
See More
Norwegian Cruise Line Reports Disappointing Earnings, Stock Falls 24%
- Disappointing Earnings Report: Norwegian Cruise Line's fourth-quarter revenue rose 6% to $2.2 billion, falling short of market expectations of $2.34 billion, indicating management execution gaps that have eroded market confidence.
- Improved Profitability: Despite revenue misses, adjusted EBITDA increased by 11% to $2.73 billion, and adjusted earnings per share surged 46% to $0.28, exceeding expectations of $0.27, demonstrating effective cost control measures.
- Bleak Future Outlook: Norwegian anticipates flat net yields for 2026, with adjusted earnings per share projected at $2.38, below the consensus estimate of $2.60, highlighting ongoing fundamental challenges facing the company.
- Investor Attention: Activist investor Elliott Investment Management called for urgent board reforms, resulting in the appointment of five new board members, which, while not boosting stock prices immediately, may lay the groundwork for future improvements.
See More
