Nutrien Sees FY26 Capital Expenditures of $2B-$2.1B
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 12 hours ago
0mins
Should l Buy NTR?
Sees FY26 capital expenditures $2B-$2.1B. Sees FY26 effective tax rate 24%-26%. "As we move into 2026, our priorities remain unchanged and we expect to build on our momentum supported by strong potash market fundamentals, an improved Nitrogen margin profile, and higher Retail earnings. I am excited about Nutrien's extraordinary potential as we continue to position the Company for long-term growth and resilience," added Seitz.
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Analyst Views on NTR
Wall Street analysts forecast NTR stock price to fall
15 Analyst Rating
6 Buy
8 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 69.860
Low
58.00
Averages
66.08
High
76.00
Current: 69.860
Low
58.00
Averages
66.08
High
76.00
About NTR
Nutrien Ltd. is a global provider of crop inputs and services. The Company operates a network of production, distribution and ag retail facilities. The Company’s segments include Nutrien Ag Solutions (Retail), Potash, Nitrogen and Phosphate. Its downstream Retail segment distributes crop nutrients, crop protection products, seed and merchandise, and provides agronomic application services and solutions, including the services offered through Nutrien Financial. The Retail segment also manufactures and distributes proprietary products and provides services directly to farmers through a network of retail locations in North America, South America and Australia. Its upstream Potash, Nitrogen and Phosphate segments are differentiated by the chemical nutrient contained in the products that each segment produces and are supported by midstream activities, which include the global sales, freight, transportation and distribution of its products.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Nutrien Q4 Earnings Beat Expectations Despite EPS Miss
- Earnings Highlights: Nutrien reported a Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $0.83, missing expectations by $0.08; however, revenue reached $5.34 billion, reflecting a 5.1% year-over-year increase and exceeding market expectations by $30 million, indicating resilience in the company's performance.
- Sales Volume Outlook: The 2026 guidance indicates potash sales volumes are projected between 21.4 million and 24.8 million tonnes, nitrogen sales between 29.2 million and 28.9 million tonnes, and phosphate sales between 22.4 million and 23.6 million tonnes, suggesting a positive outlook for future demand.
- Capital Expenditure Plans: Nutrien anticipates capital expenditures for 2026 to range from $4.2 billion to $2.1 billion, reflecting ongoing investments in production capacity to meet the growing agricultural demand and enhance market competitiveness.
- Finance Costs and Tax Rate: Expected finance costs for 2026 are between $650 million and $750 million, with an effective tax rate on adjusted net earnings projected at 32% to 26%, factors that will influence the company's overall profitability and cash flow management.
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Nutrien Declares Quarterly Dividend Increase
- Dividend Increase: Nutrien has declared a quarterly dividend of $0.55 per share, reflecting a 0.9% increase from the previous dividend of $0.545, which underscores the company's ongoing performance in maintaining stable cash flow and profitability, thereby boosting investor confidence.
- Stable Yield: The forward yield of 3.13% provides investors with a relatively attractive return, although the market remains cautious about Nutrien's upside potential, indicating a conservative outlook on its future growth prospects.
- Payment Schedule: The dividend is payable on April 16, with a record date of March 31 and an ex-dividend date also set for March 31, ensuring that shareholders receive their earnings promptly, which further strengthens the relationship between the company and its investors.
- Financial Health: The dividend increase aligns with Nutrien's robust financial fundamentals, and while the current stock price faces upward limitations, the company continues to demonstrate strong profitability and cash flow management capabilities, indicating potential for sustainable growth in the future.
See More
Nutrien Declares Quarterly Dividend and Share Buyback Plan
- Quarterly Dividend Increase: Nutrien's Board of Directors declared a quarterly dividend of $0.55 per share, representing approximately a 1% increase from the previous dividend declared in November 2025, which reflects the company's ongoing commitment to shareholder returns.
- Share Buyback Plan: The Board approved a plan to repurchase up to 5% of its issued common shares over the next twelve months through a normal course issuer bid (NCIB), aimed at enhancing earnings per share and boosting market confidence.
- Dividend Currency Options: Registered shareholders can elect to receive dividends in either Canadian dollars or US dollars, calculated based on the exchange rate on March 31, 2026, which enhances shareholder flexibility and satisfaction.
- Direct Deposit Service: Nutrien offers registered shareholders the option for direct deposit via electronic funds transfer for dividend payments, streamlining the payment process and further improving customer experience and shareholder relationship management.
See More
Nutrien Reports Strong Growth in 2025 Financial Results
- Strong Performance: Nutrien achieved net earnings of $2.30 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $6.05 billion in 2025, primarily driven by higher fertilizer selling prices and improved retail profitability, demonstrating the company's robust performance and sustained profitability in the market.
- Cash Flow Growth: The company generated strong free cash flow in 2025, with approximately $900 million in proceeds from asset divestitures, successfully reducing adjusted net debt while increasing cash returns to shareholders by 30%, indicating effective strategies in capital allocation and shareholder returns.
- Retail Business Performance: Retail adjusted EBITDA rose to $1.74 billion in 2025, benefiting from cost-saving initiatives and strong proprietary product gross margins, showcasing the company's success in optimizing operations and enhancing profitability.
- Strategic Investments: Nutrien completed the sale of its 50% stake in Profertil for approximately $600 million in 2025, further enhancing capital efficiency and financial resilience while continuing to assess strategic alternatives for its phosphate business, reflecting the company's focus on core asset optimization.
See More
Nutrien Scheduled to Announce Q4 Earnings on February 18
- Earnings Announcement Schedule: Nutrien is set to release its Q4 earnings report on February 18 after market close, with a consensus EPS estimate of $0.92, significantly up from $0.31 in Q4 2024, indicating an improvement in profitability.
- Revenue Growth Expectations: The revenue for Q4 is projected to reach $5.31 billion, reflecting a 4.5% year-over-year increase, suggesting sustained demand in the agricultural market that could drive future investments and expansion strategies for Nutrien.
- Historical Performance Review: Over the past two years, Nutrien has beaten EPS and revenue estimates 50% of the time, demonstrating the company's financial stability and adaptability in the market.
- Expectation Revision Dynamics: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen five upward revisions and four downward adjustments, while revenue estimates experienced four upward revisions and one downward, reflecting a cautiously optimistic market sentiment regarding Nutrien's future performance.
See More
AI Turbulence Impacts Market Performance
- Increased Market Volatility: Last week, stocks in software, real estate, financial services, and logistics faced selling pressure due to concerns over AI-related disruptions, with the Nasdaq Composite falling 0.2% and a weekly loss of 2.1%, indicating market sensitivity to AI impacts.
- Consumer Spending Data Focus: This week's highlight will be the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report on Friday, which will provide insights into consumer spending in December and inflation trends, especially following last week's unexpected slowdown in the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
- Corporate Earnings in Spotlight: Walmart (WMT) is set to release its fourth-quarter earnings on Thursday, marking the first report under new CEO John Furner, making it a key indicator of consumer spending that the market is eagerly anticipating.
- Ongoing AI Impact: As AI tools' potential effects intensify across various sectors, software stocks like Salesforce (CRM) and ServiceNow (NOW) have seen significant declines, reflecting the market's heightened vigilance regarding AI disruptions, necessitating close monitoring of future industry developments.
See More
Nutrien Q4 Earnings Beat Expectations Despite EPS Miss
- Earnings Highlights: Nutrien reported a Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $0.83, missing expectations by $0.08; however, revenue reached $5.34 billion, reflecting a 5.1% year-over-year increase and exceeding market expectations by $30 million, indicating resilience in the company's performance.
- Sales Volume Outlook: The 2026 guidance indicates potash sales volumes are projected between 21.4 million and 24.8 million tonnes, nitrogen sales between 29.2 million and 28.9 million tonnes, and phosphate sales between 22.4 million and 23.6 million tonnes, suggesting a positive outlook for future demand.
- Capital Expenditure Plans: Nutrien anticipates capital expenditures for 2026 to range from $4.2 billion to $2.1 billion, reflecting ongoing investments in production capacity to meet the growing agricultural demand and enhance market competitiveness.
- Finance Costs and Tax Rate: Expected finance costs for 2026 are between $650 million and $750 million, with an effective tax rate on adjusted net earnings projected at 32% to 26%, factors that will influence the company's overall profitability and cash flow management.
See More
Nutrien Declares Quarterly Dividend Increase
- Dividend Increase: Nutrien has declared a quarterly dividend of $0.55 per share, reflecting a 0.9% increase from the previous dividend of $0.545, which underscores the company's ongoing performance in maintaining stable cash flow and profitability, thereby boosting investor confidence.
- Stable Yield: The forward yield of 3.13% provides investors with a relatively attractive return, although the market remains cautious about Nutrien's upside potential, indicating a conservative outlook on its future growth prospects.
- Payment Schedule: The dividend is payable on April 16, with a record date of March 31 and an ex-dividend date also set for March 31, ensuring that shareholders receive their earnings promptly, which further strengthens the relationship between the company and its investors.
- Financial Health: The dividend increase aligns with Nutrien's robust financial fundamentals, and while the current stock price faces upward limitations, the company continues to demonstrate strong profitability and cash flow management capabilities, indicating potential for sustainable growth in the future.
See More
Nutrien Declares Quarterly Dividend and Share Buyback Plan
- Quarterly Dividend Increase: Nutrien's Board of Directors declared a quarterly dividend of $0.55 per share, representing approximately a 1% increase from the previous dividend declared in November 2025, which reflects the company's ongoing commitment to shareholder returns.
- Share Buyback Plan: The Board approved a plan to repurchase up to 5% of its issued common shares over the next twelve months through a normal course issuer bid (NCIB), aimed at enhancing earnings per share and boosting market confidence.
- Dividend Currency Options: Registered shareholders can elect to receive dividends in either Canadian dollars or US dollars, calculated based on the exchange rate on March 31, 2026, which enhances shareholder flexibility and satisfaction.
- Direct Deposit Service: Nutrien offers registered shareholders the option for direct deposit via electronic funds transfer for dividend payments, streamlining the payment process and further improving customer experience and shareholder relationship management.
See More
Nutrien Reports Strong Growth in 2025 Financial Results
- Strong Performance: Nutrien achieved net earnings of $2.30 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $6.05 billion in 2025, primarily driven by higher fertilizer selling prices and improved retail profitability, demonstrating the company's robust performance and sustained profitability in the market.
- Cash Flow Growth: The company generated strong free cash flow in 2025, with approximately $900 million in proceeds from asset divestitures, successfully reducing adjusted net debt while increasing cash returns to shareholders by 30%, indicating effective strategies in capital allocation and shareholder returns.
- Retail Business Performance: Retail adjusted EBITDA rose to $1.74 billion in 2025, benefiting from cost-saving initiatives and strong proprietary product gross margins, showcasing the company's success in optimizing operations and enhancing profitability.
- Strategic Investments: Nutrien completed the sale of its 50% stake in Profertil for approximately $600 million in 2025, further enhancing capital efficiency and financial resilience while continuing to assess strategic alternatives for its phosphate business, reflecting the company's focus on core asset optimization.
See More
Nutrien Scheduled to Announce Q4 Earnings on February 18
- Earnings Announcement Schedule: Nutrien is set to release its Q4 earnings report on February 18 after market close, with a consensus EPS estimate of $0.92, significantly up from $0.31 in Q4 2024, indicating an improvement in profitability.
- Revenue Growth Expectations: The revenue for Q4 is projected to reach $5.31 billion, reflecting a 4.5% year-over-year increase, suggesting sustained demand in the agricultural market that could drive future investments and expansion strategies for Nutrien.
- Historical Performance Review: Over the past two years, Nutrien has beaten EPS and revenue estimates 50% of the time, demonstrating the company's financial stability and adaptability in the market.
- Expectation Revision Dynamics: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen five upward revisions and four downward adjustments, while revenue estimates experienced four upward revisions and one downward, reflecting a cautiously optimistic market sentiment regarding Nutrien's future performance.
See More
AI Turbulence Impacts Market Performance
- Increased Market Volatility: Last week, stocks in software, real estate, financial services, and logistics faced selling pressure due to concerns over AI-related disruptions, with the Nasdaq Composite falling 0.2% and a weekly loss of 2.1%, indicating market sensitivity to AI impacts.
- Consumer Spending Data Focus: This week's highlight will be the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report on Friday, which will provide insights into consumer spending in December and inflation trends, especially following last week's unexpected slowdown in the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
- Corporate Earnings in Spotlight: Walmart (WMT) is set to release its fourth-quarter earnings on Thursday, marking the first report under new CEO John Furner, making it a key indicator of consumer spending that the market is eagerly anticipating.
- Ongoing AI Impact: As AI tools' potential effects intensify across various sectors, software stocks like Salesforce (CRM) and ServiceNow (NOW) have seen significant declines, reflecting the market's heightened vigilance regarding AI disruptions, necessitating close monitoring of future industry developments.
See More
