Nomura Reduces BUD APAC's Target Price to HKD9.4, Anticipates Continued Impact from China Business on 4Q Results
3Q25 Performance: BUD APAC's 3Q25 results showed an 8.4% YoY revenue decline to USD1.56 billion, slightly below market expectations, while normalized EBITDA fell by 6.9% YoY to USD438 million, exceeding forecasts.
Future Outlook: Nomura predicts that BUD APAC's operations in China will negatively impact revenue and earnings in 4Q25, leading to a reduction in the target price from HKD9.9 to HKD9.4, although the company maintains a Buy rating.
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Citi Lowers BUD APAC's Target Price to HKD11.4 and Reduces Sales and Profit Projections
Citi's Sales Forecast Adjustment: Citi has reduced its 2025-27 sales forecasts for BUD APAC by 3% to 4% due to a less favorable outlook for its China business, particularly for 4Q25 sales impacted by the timing of the Lunar New Year in 2026.
Core Net Profit Forecasts Cut: The bank has also lowered its core net profit forecasts for BUD APAC by 10% for 2025 and 2026, and by 9% for 2027, reflecting weakened operating leverage.
Target Price Revision: BUD APAC's target price has been decreased from HKD12.4 to HKD11.4, although Citi maintains a Buy rating on the stock.
Preference for Chinese Beer Makers: Citi's ranking of Chinese beer makers remains unchanged, with BUD APAC positioned below CHINA RES BEER and TSINGTAO BREW in their preference order.
JPM's Leading Selections for Year of the Horse Among Chinese Consumers: Laopu, Gu Ming, Miniso, Yum China, and Pop Mart
Investment Themes for China's Consumer Sector: Key themes for 2026 include lukewarm end-demand with potential policy stimulus, accelerated industry consolidation due to price deflation, a focus on design and social value among younger consumers, overseas expansion to counter domestic growth weaknesses, and challenges/opportunities from an aging population.
Top Buy Picks by JPMorgan: Recommended stocks include LAOPU GOLD for its gold price and expansion potential, Luckin Coffee for market share and digitization, GUMING for regional diversification, MNSO for strong products and store expansion, Yum China for robust performance, and POP MART for its growth potential and valuation.
Stocks to Avoid: JPMorgan advises against investing in BUD APAC and YANGHE due to their poor performance and high short-selling ratios.
Market Insights: The report highlights the importance of understanding market dynamics, including short-selling data and stock performance, to make informed investment decisions in the evolving consumer landscape.
G Sachs Identifies Three Key Trends in China's Consumer Staples Sector; Potential Recovery Opportunities Expected by 2026
Sector Performance Overview: China's consumer staples sector showed a split performance in 2022, with steady growth before the May 18 anti-corruption policy, followed by underperformance due to weak demand and deflationary pressures, although some companies like NONGFU SPRING managed to grow.
Future Recovery Outlook: Goldman Sachs predicts that the sector's recovery by 2026 will hinge on reflation processes and policy direction, emphasizing the need for expanding domestic demand and focusing on themes like market bottoming, channel reshuffling, and competition dynamics.
BofAS Predictions: BofAS anticipates that the consumer sector may bottom out in the second half of 2026, particularly with a cyclical recovery in spirits and dairy, alongside growth in ready-to-drink products, driven by the revival of business banquets and high-end demand.
Sector-Specific Trends: The dairy sector is expected to rebalance supply and demand in 2H26 due to upstream production cuts and policy support, while categories related to dining, such as beer and prepared foods, will benefit from low base effects and cyclical recovery.
JPM Cuts BUD APAC's Target Price to HKD7.9; 5.7% Dividend Yield Caps Share Price Decline
JPMorgan's Predictions: JPMorgan forecasts a 5.4% year-over-year decline in natural revenue and a 10.5% drop in EBITDA for BUD APAC in 4Q25, with previous declines of 8.4% and 6.9% in 3Q25.
Dividend Yield and Stock Rating: The broker expects BUD APAC's dividend yield to reach 5.7%, which may provide support for its stock price, while maintaining a Neutral rating and lowering the target price from HKD8.5 to HKD7.9.
G Sachs Lowers BUD APAC (01876.HK) Price Target to $8.4 Amid Anticipated Increase in 4Q25 Losses to $58M
Goldman Sachs EPS Forecasts: Goldman Sachs has lowered its EPS forecasts for BUD APAC (01876.HK) for 2025-2027 by 5-9%, citing increased sales and management expenses, weakened operational leverage, and mega platform charges.
Target Price Adjustment: The target price for BUD APAC has been reduced from $8.9 to $8.4, while maintaining a Buy rating.
Revenue and EBITDA Projections: The broker expects BUD APAC's 4Q25 natural revenue to decline by 6.6% YoY and EBITDA to drop by 37.6% YoY, with a projected net loss of $58 million.
FY2025 EBITDA Expectations: For FY2025, Goldman Sachs forecasts a 0.2% increase in organic EBITDA for APAC East, while APAC West is expected to experience a 14.8% decline.
BUD APAC Commits $10 Million to Aid Fire Relief Initiatives in Hong Kong
Company Response: BUD APAC has pledged $10 million in funds and resources for immediate assistance and long-term reconstruction efforts for residents affected by the Tai Po fire.
Leadership Condolences: CEO Cheng Yanjun expressed deep sadness over the casualties and losses from the fire, offering condolences to those affected and gratitude to the community for their support.
Citi Lowers BUD APAC's Target Price to HKD11.4 and Reduces Sales and Profit Projections
Citi's Sales Forecast Adjustment: Citi has reduced its 2025-27 sales forecasts for BUD APAC by 3% to 4% due to a less favorable outlook for its China business, particularly for 4Q25 sales impacted by the timing of the Lunar New Year in 2026.
Core Net Profit Forecasts Cut: The bank has also lowered its core net profit forecasts for BUD APAC by 10% for 2025 and 2026, and by 9% for 2027, reflecting weakened operating leverage.
Target Price Revision: BUD APAC's target price has been decreased from HKD12.4 to HKD11.4, although Citi maintains a Buy rating on the stock.
Preference for Chinese Beer Makers: Citi's ranking of Chinese beer makers remains unchanged, with BUD APAC positioned below CHINA RES BEER and TSINGTAO BREW in their preference order.
JPM's Leading Selections for Year of the Horse Among Chinese Consumers: Laopu, Gu Ming, Miniso, Yum China, and Pop Mart
Investment Themes for China's Consumer Sector: Key themes for 2026 include lukewarm end-demand with potential policy stimulus, accelerated industry consolidation due to price deflation, a focus on design and social value among younger consumers, overseas expansion to counter domestic growth weaknesses, and challenges/opportunities from an aging population.
Top Buy Picks by JPMorgan: Recommended stocks include LAOPU GOLD for its gold price and expansion potential, Luckin Coffee for market share and digitization, GUMING for regional diversification, MNSO for strong products and store expansion, Yum China for robust performance, and POP MART for its growth potential and valuation.
Stocks to Avoid: JPMorgan advises against investing in BUD APAC and YANGHE due to their poor performance and high short-selling ratios.
Market Insights: The report highlights the importance of understanding market dynamics, including short-selling data and stock performance, to make informed investment decisions in the evolving consumer landscape.
G Sachs Identifies Three Key Trends in China's Consumer Staples Sector; Potential Recovery Opportunities Expected by 2026
Sector Performance Overview: China's consumer staples sector showed a split performance in 2022, with steady growth before the May 18 anti-corruption policy, followed by underperformance due to weak demand and deflationary pressures, although some companies like NONGFU SPRING managed to grow.
Future Recovery Outlook: Goldman Sachs predicts that the sector's recovery by 2026 will hinge on reflation processes and policy direction, emphasizing the need for expanding domestic demand and focusing on themes like market bottoming, channel reshuffling, and competition dynamics.
BofAS Predictions: BofAS anticipates that the consumer sector may bottom out in the second half of 2026, particularly with a cyclical recovery in spirits and dairy, alongside growth in ready-to-drink products, driven by the revival of business banquets and high-end demand.
Sector-Specific Trends: The dairy sector is expected to rebalance supply and demand in 2H26 due to upstream production cuts and policy support, while categories related to dining, such as beer and prepared foods, will benefit from low base effects and cyclical recovery.
JPM Cuts BUD APAC's Target Price to HKD7.9; 5.7% Dividend Yield Caps Share Price Decline
JPMorgan's Predictions: JPMorgan forecasts a 5.4% year-over-year decline in natural revenue and a 10.5% drop in EBITDA for BUD APAC in 4Q25, with previous declines of 8.4% and 6.9% in 3Q25.
Dividend Yield and Stock Rating: The broker expects BUD APAC's dividend yield to reach 5.7%, which may provide support for its stock price, while maintaining a Neutral rating and lowering the target price from HKD8.5 to HKD7.9.
G Sachs Lowers BUD APAC (01876.HK) Price Target to $8.4 Amid Anticipated Increase in 4Q25 Losses to $58M
Goldman Sachs EPS Forecasts: Goldman Sachs has lowered its EPS forecasts for BUD APAC (01876.HK) for 2025-2027 by 5-9%, citing increased sales and management expenses, weakened operational leverage, and mega platform charges.
Target Price Adjustment: The target price for BUD APAC has been reduced from $8.9 to $8.4, while maintaining a Buy rating.
Revenue and EBITDA Projections: The broker expects BUD APAC's 4Q25 natural revenue to decline by 6.6% YoY and EBITDA to drop by 37.6% YoY, with a projected net loss of $58 million.
FY2025 EBITDA Expectations: For FY2025, Goldman Sachs forecasts a 0.2% increase in organic EBITDA for APAC East, while APAC West is expected to experience a 14.8% decline.
BUD APAC Commits $10 Million to Aid Fire Relief Initiatives in Hong Kong
Company Response: BUD APAC has pledged $10 million in funds and resources for immediate assistance and long-term reconstruction efforts for residents affected by the Tai Po fire.
Leadership Condolences: CEO Cheng Yanjun expressed deep sadness over the casualties and losses from the fire, offering condolences to those affected and gratitude to the community for their support.
