Nomura Reduces BUD APAC's Target Price to HKD9.4, Anticipates Continued Impact from China Business on 4Q Results

The analyst rating from UBS on BUD APAC (01876.HK) is a "Buy" due to several factors: despite a decline in operating revenue and adjusted EBITDA that fell short of expectations, the company is seen as benefiting from a premiumization process in the household channel, has an attractive valuation, and possesses robust cash reserves that can support stable dividends in 2025. However, UBS has adjusted its target price down from HKD9.07 to HKD8.75.

The analyst rating for BUD APAC (01876.HK) remains at "Outperform" despite a reduction in revenue and earnings forecasts. This decision is primarily based on the company's stronger-than-expected growth in the South Korean market, which slightly exceeded expectations in the 3Q25 results. However, the performance in the Chinese market is a concern, as it remains under pressure, and the visibility of a recovery in that market is low due to uncertainties in consumer sentiment and market competition. The target price was adjusted down from HKD9.3 to HKD9, reflecting these challenges while still maintaining a positive outlook overall.

The analyst rating for BUD APAC is a "Buy" with a target price of $8.9 due to several factors. Despite a decline in organic sales of 8.4% year-over-year, this was better than Goldman Sachs' forecast of a 12.6% drop. Additionally, the company's normalized EBITDA of $438 million was down 6.9% year-over-year but exceeded Goldman Sachs' estimate of $401 million and the market consensus of $407 million. The strong performance in the Indian market, which saw double-digit revenue growth and significant EBITDA profit margin expansion, along with better-than-expected results in the Chinese and South Korean markets, contributed to the positive outlook. Overall, these factors led to the favorable rating despite the current stock price decline.