Sector Performance Overview: China's consumer staples sector showed a split performance in 2022, with steady growth before the May 18 anti-corruption policy, followed by underperformance due to weak demand and deflationary pressures, although some companies like NONGFU SPRING managed to grow.

Future Recovery Outlook: Goldman Sachs predicts that the sector's recovery by 2026 will hinge on reflation processes and policy direction, emphasizing the need for expanding domestic demand and focusing on themes like market bottoming, channel reshuffling, and competition dynamics.

BofAS Predictions: BofAS anticipates that the consumer sector may bottom out in the second half of 2026, particularly with a cyclical recovery in spirits and dairy, alongside growth in ready-to-drink products, driven by the revival of business banquets and high-end demand.

Sector-Specific Trends: The dairy sector is expected to rebalance supply and demand in 2H26 due to upstream production cuts and policy support, while categories related to dining, such as beer and prepared foods, will benefit from low base effects and cyclical recovery.

JPMorgan's Predictions: JPMorgan forecasts a 5.4% year-over-year decline in natural revenue and a 10.5% drop in EBITDA for BUD APAC in 4Q25, with previous declines of 8.4% and 6.9% in 3Q25.

Dividend Yield and Stock Rating: The broker expects BUD APAC's dividend yield to reach 5.7%, which may provide support for its stock price, while maintaining a Neutral rating and lowering the target price from HKD8.5 to HKD7.9.

Goldman Sachs EPS Forecasts: Goldman Sachs has lowered its EPS forecasts for BUD APAC (01876.HK) for 2025-2027 by 5-9%, citing increased sales and management expenses, weakened operational leverage, and mega platform charges.

Target Price Adjustment: The target price for BUD APAC has been reduced from $8.9 to $8.4, while maintaining a Buy rating.

Revenue and EBITDA Projections: The broker expects BUD APAC's 4Q25 natural revenue to decline by 6.6% YoY and EBITDA to drop by 37.6% YoY, with a projected net loss of $58 million.

FY2025 EBITDA Expectations: For FY2025, Goldman Sachs forecasts a 0.2% increase in organic EBITDA for APAC East, while APAC West is expected to experience a 14.8% decline.

Company Response: BUD APAC has pledged $10 million in funds and resources for immediate assistance and long-term reconstruction efforts for residents affected by the Tai Po fire.

Leadership Condolences: CEO Cheng Yanjun expressed deep sadness over the casualties and losses from the fire, offering condolences to those affected and gratitude to the community for their support.

3Q25 Financial Performance: BUD APAC reported a decline in operating revenue and adjusted EBITDA by 8.8% and 8.6% YoY, respectively, totaling USD1.555 billion and USD438 million, slightly below broker expectations but in line with market forecasts.

UBS Rating and Target Price Adjustment: UBS maintained a Buy rating on BUD APAC, citing premiumization and strong cash reserves, but reduced the target price from HKD9.07 to HKD8.75.