Citi Lowers EPS Projections for HKEX (00388.HK) and Reduces Target Price to $505
Citi Research Update: Citi Research has updated its model for HKEX, lowering its FY2025-2027 EPS forecasts by 1% due to a reduced average daily turnover forecast for Hong Kong stocks.
Target Price Adjustment: The broker maintained a Buy rating for HKEX but reduced its target price from $515 to $505.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Analyst Views on 00388
About the author
CICC: HKEX Performance Exceeds Expectations; Maintains Outperform Rating
HKEX Revenue and Profit Growth: CICC reported that HKEX's total revenue for 2025 is projected to reach HKD29.16 billion, a 30% increase year-on-year, with profits expected to grow 36% to HKD17.75 billion.
Quarterly Performance: In the fourth quarter, HKEX's revenue rose 15% year-on-year to HKD7.31 billion, with core fee income increasing by 17% to HKD6 billion and profits climbing 15% to HKD4.335 billion.
BofAS: HKEX (00388.HK) 2025 Net Profit Expected to Align Closely
Financial Performance: HKEX reported a net profit of HKD17.8 billion for FY25, a 36% year-on-year increase, with an average daily turnover (ADT) reaching a historical high of HKD250 billion, up 89% YoY.
IPO Fundraising and Future Outlook: The exchange's IPO fundraising surged to HKD287 billion, a 225% increase YoY, leading to revised earnings expectations for 2026-27, with a maintained target price of HKD520 and a Buy rating.
JPM: HKEX (00388.HK) Reports Strong 4Q25 Net Profit; Year-to-Date Average Daily Turnover Recovers; IPO Activity Increases
Financial Performance: HKEX reported a net profit of $4.3 billion for Q4 2025, a 12% decrease QoQ but a 15% increase YoY, surpassing JPMorgan's forecast by 19%. The FY2025 profit reached $17.8 billion, up 36% YoY, exceeding market expectations by 2%.
Trading Activity: After a seasonal dip in December 2025, trading volumes have improved, with an average daily turnover of approximately $260 billion year-to-date, despite the impact of the Lunar New Year period.
IPO Applications: HKEX entered 2026 with over 400 active IPO applications, a notable rise from 297 in Q3 2025, indicating a robust pipeline for new listings.
Market Outlook: Morgan Stanley maintained an Overweight rating on HKEX, projecting a target price of $540, anticipating continued strength in the share price following the positive quarterly results.
UBS Reports HKEX (00388.HK) Exceeds 4Q25 Expectations, but Lowers Target Price to HKD462
HKEX Financial Performance: UBS reported that HKEX's 4Q25 results exceeded expectations, with a 15% YoY revenue growth to HKD7.3 billion, driven by stronger net interest income and fees.
Profit and Cost Control: HKEX's net profit also rose 15% YoY to HKD4.3 billion, surpassing consensus estimates, attributed to effective cost management.
Future Outlook: HKEX plans to invest in growth while maintaining cost discipline, although it anticipates a tougher comparison in 1Q26.
EPS and Target Price Adjustments: UBS adjusted its EPS forecasts for HKEX for 2026, 2027, and 2028, and revised the target price from HKD471 to HKD462, maintaining a Neutral rating.
G Sachs: HKEX (00388.HK) Exceeds Expectations with 4Q25 Earnings; Maintains Buy Rating
Earnings Performance: HKEX's 4Q25 earnings exceeded expectations due to improved investment returns and reduced operating expenses, with earnings 5% above Goldman Sachs' forecast when excluding investment income.
Analyst Ratings: Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating on HKEX, projecting a 4% EPS growth for 2026 and a 12% year-over-year revenue increase, while setting a target price of HKD 546.
M Stanley: HKEX (00388.HK) Exceeds Quarterly Expectations; Target Price Set at $508
Financial Performance: HKEX reported a 15% year-over-year increase in net profit for 4Q25, surpassing market expectations and driven by higher net investment income and listing fees.
Trading Activity: The average daily turnover rose by 23% year-over-year to $230 billion, leading to increased trading and clearing fees.
Analyst Rating: Morgan Stanley has rated HKEX as Overweight, with a target price set at $508, reflecting confidence in the company's performance.
Dividends: HKEX announced a 36% year-over-year increase in net profit for 2025, raising the second interim dividend per share to $6.52.
CICC: HKEX Performance Exceeds Expectations; Maintains Outperform Rating
HKEX Revenue and Profit Growth: CICC reported that HKEX's total revenue for 2025 is projected to reach HKD29.16 billion, a 30% increase year-on-year, with profits expected to grow 36% to HKD17.75 billion.
Quarterly Performance: In the fourth quarter, HKEX's revenue rose 15% year-on-year to HKD7.31 billion, with core fee income increasing by 17% to HKD6 billion and profits climbing 15% to HKD4.335 billion.
BofAS: HKEX (00388.HK) 2025 Net Profit Expected to Align Closely
Financial Performance: HKEX reported a net profit of HKD17.8 billion for FY25, a 36% year-on-year increase, with an average daily turnover (ADT) reaching a historical high of HKD250 billion, up 89% YoY.
IPO Fundraising and Future Outlook: The exchange's IPO fundraising surged to HKD287 billion, a 225% increase YoY, leading to revised earnings expectations for 2026-27, with a maintained target price of HKD520 and a Buy rating.
JPM: HKEX (00388.HK) Reports Strong 4Q25 Net Profit; Year-to-Date Average Daily Turnover Recovers; IPO Activity Increases
Financial Performance: HKEX reported a net profit of $4.3 billion for Q4 2025, a 12% decrease QoQ but a 15% increase YoY, surpassing JPMorgan's forecast by 19%. The FY2025 profit reached $17.8 billion, up 36% YoY, exceeding market expectations by 2%.
Trading Activity: After a seasonal dip in December 2025, trading volumes have improved, with an average daily turnover of approximately $260 billion year-to-date, despite the impact of the Lunar New Year period.
IPO Applications: HKEX entered 2026 with over 400 active IPO applications, a notable rise from 297 in Q3 2025, indicating a robust pipeline for new listings.
Market Outlook: Morgan Stanley maintained an Overweight rating on HKEX, projecting a target price of $540, anticipating continued strength in the share price following the positive quarterly results.
UBS Reports HKEX (00388.HK) Exceeds 4Q25 Expectations, but Lowers Target Price to HKD462
HKEX Financial Performance: UBS reported that HKEX's 4Q25 results exceeded expectations, with a 15% YoY revenue growth to HKD7.3 billion, driven by stronger net interest income and fees.
Profit and Cost Control: HKEX's net profit also rose 15% YoY to HKD4.3 billion, surpassing consensus estimates, attributed to effective cost management.
Future Outlook: HKEX plans to invest in growth while maintaining cost discipline, although it anticipates a tougher comparison in 1Q26.
EPS and Target Price Adjustments: UBS adjusted its EPS forecasts for HKEX for 2026, 2027, and 2028, and revised the target price from HKD471 to HKD462, maintaining a Neutral rating.
G Sachs: HKEX (00388.HK) Exceeds Expectations with 4Q25 Earnings; Maintains Buy Rating
Earnings Performance: HKEX's 4Q25 earnings exceeded expectations due to improved investment returns and reduced operating expenses, with earnings 5% above Goldman Sachs' forecast when excluding investment income.
Analyst Ratings: Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating on HKEX, projecting a 4% EPS growth for 2026 and a 12% year-over-year revenue increase, while setting a target price of HKD 546.
M Stanley: HKEX (00388.HK) Exceeds Quarterly Expectations; Target Price Set at $508
Financial Performance: HKEX reported a 15% year-over-year increase in net profit for 4Q25, surpassing market expectations and driven by higher net investment income and listing fees.
Trading Activity: The average daily turnover rose by 23% year-over-year to $230 billion, leading to increased trading and clearing fees.
Analyst Rating: Morgan Stanley has rated HKEX as Overweight, with a target price set at $508, reflecting confidence in the company's performance.
Dividends: HKEX announced a 36% year-over-year increase in net profit for 2025, raising the second interim dividend per share to $6.52.
