NGL Energy Partners Q4 Earnings Analysis
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 2 days ago
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Source: seekingalpha
- Disappointing Earnings: NGL Energy Partners reported a Q4 GAAP EPS of -$3.44, missing expectations by $3.62, indicating challenges in profitability that may negatively impact investor confidence.
- Slight Revenue Decline: The company reported revenue of $949.51 million, a 2.2% year-over-year decline, although it beat market expectations by $173.47 million; however, the ongoing revenue drop could affect future growth potential.
- Positive FY2027 Outlook: CEO Mike Krimbill stated that the company expects consolidated Adjusted EBITDA for FY2027 to be in the range of $715 million to $725 million, representing a 10% increase at the high end compared to FY2026, primarily driven by strong momentum in the Water Solutions segment, highlighting growth potential in this area.
- Capital Expenditure Plans: The company plans to allocate $45 million for maintenance and $200 million for growth capital expenditures in FY2027, a strategic investment aimed at further strengthening its financial structure and market competitiveness.
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Analyst Views on NGL
About NGL
NGL Energy Partners LP is a master limited partnership. It operates an integrated network of large-diameter wastewater pipelines, disposal wells and produced water handling systems in the Delaware Basin. It also operates wastewater disposal in the Eagle Ford and DJ Basins. In addition, it markets and provides other logistics services for crude oil, through its ownership of the Grand Mesa Pipeline System, Cushing terminal and other Gulf Coast terminals. Its Water Solutions segment transports, treats, recycles and disposes of produced and flowback water generated from crude oil and natural gas production. Its Crude Oil Logistics segment purchases crude oil from producers and marketers and transports it to refineries or for resale at pipeline injection stations, storage terminals, barge loading facilities, rail facilities and other trade hubs, and provides storage, terminaling and transportation services. Its Liquids Logistics segment conducts supply operations for natural gas liquids.
About the author

Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
- Disappointing Earnings: NGL Energy Partners reported a Q4 GAAP EPS of -$3.44, missing expectations by $3.62, indicating challenges in profitability that may negatively impact investor confidence.
- Slight Revenue Decline: The company reported revenue of $949.51 million, a 2.2% year-over-year decline, although it beat market expectations by $173.47 million; however, the ongoing revenue drop could affect future growth potential.
- Positive FY2027 Outlook: CEO Mike Krimbill stated that the company expects consolidated Adjusted EBITDA for FY2027 to be in the range of $715 million to $725 million, representing a 10% increase at the high end compared to FY2026, primarily driven by strong momentum in the Water Solutions segment, highlighting growth potential in this area.
- Capital Expenditure Plans: The company plans to allocate $45 million for maintenance and $200 million for growth capital expenditures in FY2027, a strategic investment aimed at further strengthening its financial structure and market competitiveness.
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- Significant Financial Loss: NGL Energy Partners reported a loss from continuing operations of $178.5 million for fiscal 2026, a stark contrast to the $65 million income in fiscal 2025, indicating vulnerability amid market volatility and cost pressures, which could undermine shareholder confidence.
- Adjusted EBITDA Performance: The adjusted EBITDA for fiscal 2026 was $660.2 million, a 6% increase from $622.9 million in fiscal 2025, demonstrating improved operational efficiency in the water solutions segment despite challenges, suggesting potential for future profitability.
- Growth in Water Solutions: In Q4 of fiscal 2026, NGL processed an average of 3.01 million barrels of water per day, a 10% increase from the same period last year, indicating sustained demand in the water solutions market, which could enhance competitive positioning.
- Debt Restructuring and Buyback Plan: In March 2026, NGL closed a $950 million debt refinancing and initiated a new common unit repurchase program, authorizing up to $100 million in buybacks, aimed at optimizing capital structure and enhancing shareholder returns.
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- Earnings Announcement Schedule: NGL Energy Partners is set to release its Q1 earnings report on May 28 after market close, with a consensus EPS estimate of $0.18, reflecting a substantial year-over-year increase of 169.2%, indicating a significant improvement in the company's profitability.
- Revenue Growth Expectations: The anticipated revenue for Q1 is $776.04 million, representing a 24.7% year-over-year growth, which suggests that the company continues to expand its business effectively amid oil price recovery and contract visibility.
- Performance Against Estimates: Over the past year, NGL has beaten EPS estimates 25% of the time, while failing to exceed revenue estimates, highlighting volatility in profitability that may affect investor confidence.
- Share Repurchase Plan: NGL Energy Partners has announced a $100 million share repurchase plan aimed at enhancing shareholder value by reducing the number of outstanding shares, thereby boosting EPS and demonstrating the company's confidence in future growth.
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- Earnings Release Schedule: NGL Energy Partners plans to issue its earnings report for the year ending March 31, 2026, after market close on May 28, 2026, reflecting the company's commitment to financial transparency.
- Management Conference Call: Following the earnings release, NGL's management team will host a conference call at 4:00 PM CDT on the same day to discuss financial results, aiming to enhance communication with analysts and investors.
- Participation Details: Analysts and investors can join the call by dialing (888) 506-0062 and providing conference code 941890 or by accessing the webcast link, ensuring broad dissemination of information.
- Tax Compliance Notice: Under Treasury regulations, distributions to foreign investors are subject to federal income tax withholding at the highest applicable rate, underscoring the company's commitment to compliance.
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- Pipeline System Expansion: NGL Water Solutions announces the expansion of its Lea County Express Pipeline System (LEX II Extension) with an additional 60 miles of large-diameter pipeline, significantly enhancing produced water handling capacity in the Delaware Basin, with an expected throughput increase to 560,000 barrels per day.
- New Facility Construction: The expansion includes new disposal wells and injection facilities, further strengthening NGL's existing super-system for water management, ensuring the company can meet the growing market demand and enhance its competitive edge in water management.
- Long-Term Contract Support: The LEX II expansion project is backed by a newly executed long-term volume commitment contract, which increases the committed area in Eddy County, NM, ensuring future water handling volumes and revenue stability, thereby boosting investor confidence.
- Strategic Focus on Water Management: NGL is concentrating on its Water Solutions business, which has become the core driver of the company, expected to contribute approximately 85% of adjusted EBITDA, indicating the company's leadership position and future growth potential in water infrastructure.
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- Share Repurchase Program: On April 9, NGL Energy Partners announced that its Board of Directors authorized a share repurchase program of up to $100 million, allowing the company to buy back outstanding units at its discretion, thereby enhancing shareholder value and boosting market confidence.
- Repurchase Execution: In its latest earnings call, NGL revealed that it had nearly exhausted its previous repurchase plan, having bought back 1.6 million shares in Q3, totaling approximately 8.7 million shares or nearly 7% of its total outstanding shares, demonstrating confidence in its stock value.
- Infrastructure Stock Performance: NGL Energy Partners has been recognized as one of the 14 best infrastructure stocks to buy now, reflecting market acknowledgment of its diversified midstream services, including transportation, storage, and marketing of crude oil and NGLs, which enhances its investment appeal.
- Market Competition Analysis: While NGL shows investment potential, analysts note that certain AI stocks may offer greater upside potential and lower downside risk, indicating that investors should be cautious and consider sectors with higher growth prospects in the current market environment.
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