Morningstar Questions SpaceX IPO Valuation
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jun 05 2026
0mins
Source: NASDAQ.COM
- IPO Valuation Controversy: SpaceX is targeting an IPO this month with a valuation of $1.77 trillion, yet Morningstar analysts argue the company's actual worth is only $780 billion, suggesting investors may face greater risks post-IPO due to inflated expectations.
- Market Potential Analysis: SpaceX claims a total addressable market (TAM) exceeding $28.5 trillion, with $26.5 trillion linked to artificial intelligence; however, Morningstar expresses skepticism about the profitability of its AI business, which is still operating at a loss, potentially undermining overall valuation.
- Investment Recommendation: Morningstar advises investors to wait for more attractive buying opportunities after the IPO, emphasizing that long-term investors should focus on safer entry points rather than participating at inflated initial valuations to mitigate risk.
- Business Outlook and Risks: While SpaceX excels in its rocket and communication sectors and has the potential to accelerate its AI division's growth with $75 billion in new capital, Morningstar cautions that a great business does not guarantee strong stock performance, urging investors to assess risks carefully.
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Analyst Views on MORN
Wall Street analysts forecast MORN stock price to rise
2 Analyst Rating
2 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 153.410
Low
250.00
Averages
285.00
High
320.00
Current: 153.410
Low
250.00
Averages
285.00
High
320.00
About MORN
Morningstar, Inc. is a provider of independent investment insights. The Company's segments include Morningstar Direct Platform, PitchBook, Morningstar Credit, Morningstar Wealth, and Morningstar Retirement. The Morningstar Direct Platform provides investors with data, research and insights, and investment analysis to empower investment decision-making. The PitchBook provides investors with access to data, research, analytics, and artificial intelligence (AI) enabled software across private capital markets, including venture capital, private equity, private credit, bank loans, and mergers & acquisitions (M&A). Morningstar Credit provides investors with credit ratings, research, data, and credit analytics solutions. Morningstar Wealth provides investment products, investor tools, and an advisor platform powered by research and data. The Morningstar Retirement offers products designed to help individuals reach retirement goals.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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See More
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- Market Dominance: Although the stock has pulled back post-IPO, SpaceX continues to dominate the satellite internet services market, with robust performance in its Falcon 9 rocket launches and Starship reusable spacecraft, ensuring long-term growth potential for the business.
- Valuation Concerns: Former Nasdaq CEO Bob Greifeld warned that SpaceX's stock price is disconnected from its fundamentals, with a limited float and inclusion in major indexes like Nasdaq-100 inflating its value; Morningstar analysts suggest a fair value of $63 per share, significantly lower than its current market cap.
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See More
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- Strong Business Outlook: SpaceX continues to dominate the satellite internet services market, with its Falcon 9 rockets and Starship reusable spacecraft maintaining strong launch business, showcasing the company's competitive edge in the aerospace sector.
- Valuation Concerns: While SpaceX's fundamentals remain unchanged, former Nasdaq CEO Bob Greifeld warned that the stock price is disconnected from its true value, primarily due to a restricted float and inclusion in major indexes like the Nasdaq-100.
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See More
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- Immigration Policy Changes: Post-Brexit, the UK has seen net emigration from EU countries, while immigration from non-EU states surged due to labor shortages and increased international students, presenting new challenges for the UK's immigration policy and affecting labor market dynamics.
- Pound Depreciation: Following the Brexit vote, the pound has depreciated by approximately 10% and has yet to recover to pre-referendum levels, leading to increased costs for imported goods and assets, which exacerbates the cost of living pressures for UK citizens, particularly in essential areas like food and energy.
- Divergent Stock Market Performance: The FTSE 100 has outperformed the domestically-focused FTSE 250 due to its global revenue exposure, yet the overall market performance has not kept pace with the gains seen in U.S. equity markets, highlighting the ongoing impact of Brexit on investor confidence.
See More
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- SpaceX Valuation Surge: SpaceX's IPO price initially valued the company at approximately $1.8 trillion, but by June 19, 2026, its market cap soared to $2.4 trillion, making it the sixth-largest company by market cap, reflecting strong investor confidence in its growth prospects.
- Anthropic Revenue Explosion: Anthropic's revenue run rate reached $14 billion by February 2026 and topped $47 billion by May 28, 2026, indicating robust market demand despite significant expenses that challenge profitability, with its valuation nearing $1 trillion.
- OpenAI's Success and Challenges: Following the launch of ChatGPT, OpenAI experienced rapid growth, generating $1 billion in quarterly revenue by the end of 2024 and $2 billion monthly by March 2026; however, it faced a staggering loss of $38.5 billion last year, highlighting the pressure of high expenditures on profitability.
- Investment Recommendations and Outlook: Currently, SpaceX is the only IPO stock available for investors, although a significant price pullback is anticipated once insiders can sell their shares; nonetheless, Anthropic's revenue growth and future prospects position it as the most anticipated IPO among the three.
See More
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- SpaceX IPO Performance: SpaceX successfully went public on June 12, 2026, with an IPO price that valued the company at approximately $1.8 trillion, which soared to $2.4 trillion shortly after, making it the sixth-largest company by market cap, reflecting strong investor confidence in its growth prospects.
- Anthropic Revenue Surge: Anthropic's revenue run rate reached $14 billion by February 2026 and topped $47 billion by May 2026, with a valuation nearing $1 trillion, indicating robust growth in the AI sector, although its significant infrastructure expenses remain a challenge.
- OpenAI Financial Status: OpenAI's ChatGPT rapidly gained 100 million active users post-launch, generating $2 billion in monthly revenue by March 2026; however, it reported a staggering loss of $38.5 billion last year, highlighting financial pressures amid rapid expansion.
- Market Outlook Analysis: While SpaceX is currently the only IPO stock available for investment, analysts caution that its valuation may be excessive, recommending that investors wait for a more attractive entry point, whereas Anthropic's upcoming IPO is viewed as a potentially more promising investment opportunity.
See More
