Morgan Stanley Cuts Alibaba Price Target to $180 Amid Weakening E-Commerce Outlook

Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst

ADBE-1.5%

AMZN+0.44%

GOOG+0.96%

Source: Yahoo Finance

Updated: 15h ago

0mins

Source: Yahoo Finance

E-Commerce Outlook Weakens: Morgan Stanley has cut Alibaba's price target from $200 to $180, citing a deterioration in core e-commerce operations due to weak consumer spending, with expectations of continued pressure into the first half of fiscal 2027.
Strong Cloud Performance: Despite challenges in e-commerce, analysts remain optimistic about Alibaba Cloud, forecasting at least 35% year-on-year revenue growth and stable EBITA margins around 9%, reflecting scale benefits.
Customer Management Revenue Slowdown: Analysts expect customer management revenue growth to sharply decline to 3% year-on-year (down from 10% in Q2), primarily due to weak online retail sales and intensified industry competition.
Increased Pressure on Overall Performance: Morgan Stanley forecasts consolidated adjusted EBITA to fall 45% year-on-year to RMB 30 billion, partly driven by widening losses in the

ADBE

$333.95+Infinity%1D

Analyst Views on ADBE

Wall Street analysts forecast ADBE stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ADBE is 459.91 USD with a low forecast of 280.00 USD and a high forecast of 590.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

26 Analyst Rating

18 Buy

7 Hold

1 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 339.040

Low

280.00

Averages

459.91

High

590.00

Current: 339.040

Low

280.00

Averages

459.91

High

590.00

BMO Capital

Outperform -> Market Perform

downgrade

$400 -> $375

2026-01-09

New

Reason

BMO Capital

Price Target

$400 -> $375

2026-01-09

New

downgrade

Outperform -> Market Perform

Reason

BMO Capital downgraded Adobe to Market Perform from Outperform with a price target of $375, down from $400. The firm's creative cloud survey indicates creative market competitive dynamics are increasing, particularly in smaller businesses, students, and freelancers. While Adobe's valuation is "undemanding," BMO does not see positive catalysts and thinks the shares will remain range-bound, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

Jefferies

Hold -> Buy

upgrade

$300 -> $360

2026-01-04

Reason

Jefferies

Price Target

$300 -> $360

2026-01-04

upgrade

Hold -> Buy

Reason

Jefferies upgraded IBM to Buy from Hold with a price target of $360, up from $300. The firm adjusted ratings in the software sector as part of its "playbook" for 2026. Investors should stay underweight software as growth slows and lags other sectors like semiconductors, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Jefferies believes 2026 will be another year of "gradual" artificial intelligence monetization, with more meaningful growth needed to ease disintermediation fears. The firm prefers infrastructure over applications in the first half of the year, but believes negative application sentiment "is not grounded in realities." Applications sentiment should improve in the back half the year, Jefferies contends. To reflect this, the firm upgraded IBM and downgraded Adobe to start off the year.

Jefferies

Buy

Hold

downgrade

$500 -> $400

2026-01-04

Reason

Jefferies

Price Target

$500 -> $400

2026-01-04

downgrade

Buy

Hold

Reason

Jefferies downgraded Adobe to Hold from Buy with a price target of $400, down from $500. The firm adjusted ratings in the software sector as part of its "playbook" for 2026. Investors should stay underweight software as growth slows and lags other sectors like semiconductors, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Jefferies believes 2026 will be another year of "gradual" artificial intelligence monetization, with more meaningful growth needed to ease disintermediation fears. The firm prefers infrastructure over applications in the first half of the year, but believes negative application sentiment "is not grounded in realities." Applications sentiment should improve in the back half the year, Jefferies contends. To reflect this, the firm upgraded IBM and downgraded Adobe to start off the year.

Citi

Tyler Radke

Neutral

maintain

$366 -> $387

2025-12-17

Reason

Citi

Tyler Radke

Price Target

$366 -> $387

2025-12-17

maintain

Neutral

Reason

Citi analyst Tyler Radke raised the firm's price target on Adobe to $387 from $366 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm updated the company's model post the fiscal Q4 report. The quarter showed upside but the fiscal 2026 outlook was mixed, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

About ADBE

Adobe Inc. is a global technology company. The Company's products, services and solutions are used around the world to imagine, create, manage, deliver, measure, optimize and engage with content across surfaces and fuel digital experiences. Its segments include Digital Media, Digital Experience, and Publishing and Advertising. The Digital Media segment is centered around Adobe Creative Cloud and Adobe Document Cloud, which include Adobe Express, Adobe Firefly, Photoshop and other products, offering a variety of tools for creative professionals, communicators and other consumers. The Digital Experience segment provides an integrated platform and set of products, services and solutions through Adobe Experience Cloud. The Publishing and Advertising segment contains legacy products and services. In addition, its Adobe GenStudio solution allows businesses to simplify their content supply chain process with generative artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities and intelligent automation.

About the author

Emily J. Thompson

Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.