Major Averages Surge on U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Announcement
The major averages closed sharply higher in a relief rally after the announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran before a key escalation deadline. Crude oil fell over 15% to roughly $95 per barrel, effectively reversing the inflation shock that had been tightening financial conditions throughout March and early April.However, the Strait of Hormuz is only partially reopening and structural supply disruptions haven't fully cleared. Additionally, the speaker of the Parliament of Iran, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said this afternoon that the country's ceasefire with the U.S. has already been violated, according to Bloomberg. Ghalibaf said three clauses of the ceasefire had been violated so far.Get caught up quickly on the top news and calls moving stocks with these five Top Five lists.1. STOCK NEWS:Deltareported, with the company noting that it expects Q2 non-fuel unit costs growth similar to Q1Levi Straussprovided areport for Q1Bed Bath & Beyondsubstantially all assets of F9 Brands for $150MShellprovided, citing uncertainty around the "ongoing situation" in the Middle EastIn minutes for the latest FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve stated that theof the FOMC thinks inflation progress may be slower, with some Fed members seeing the possibility of a rate hike2. WALL STREET CALLS:Coinbaseto Underweight at BarclaysFreshpetto Buy at TD CowenT-Mobileto Buy at MoffettNathansonGeneral Dynamicsto Hold at Deutsche BankSeaport says Broadcom"still in the pack,"to Neutral3. AROUND THE WEB:AbbVieis suing the White House over its discount drug program, Axios reportsA pro-Iranian cybercrime outfit has claimed responsibility for hacks of Chimeand Pinterestthat forced the websites of both companies offline, Bloomberg saysThe Trump administration has rejected requests from Ford Motorand other U.S. automakers for relief from the tariffs on aluminum after two fires at the Novelis aluminum plant in Oswego, New York took the facility out of commission until at least this June, WSJ reportsGreece will prohibit access to social media for children under the age of 15 starting January 1, 2027 due to rising anxiety, sleep issues and the addictive design of the sites, Reuters saysTikTok, whose U.S. business counts Oracleas an investor, intends to invest $1.16B to build a second data center in Finland as it moves data storage for European users to the continent, Reuters reports4. MOVERS:Applied Materialswas higher afterRichtech Roboticsincreased after announcing awith NewConsultancyMeta Platformsgained after launching itsSM Energylower after Roth Capitalthe stock to NeutralExxon Mobilfalls after announcing it sees 6% of upstream production5. EARNINGS/GUIDANCE:Sealsqprovidedand backed its guidance for FY26RPM, with EPS and revenue beating consensusKura Sushiand raised its guidance for FY26Nurix Therapeutics, with EPS missing consensusAehr Test Systemsand backed its guidance for the second half of the yearINDEXES:The Dow rose 1,325.46, or 2.85%, to 47,909.92, the Nasdaq gained 617.15, or 2.8%, to 22,635, and the S&P 500 advanced 165.96, or 2.51%, to 6,782.81.
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- Marginal Passenger Volume Improvement: TSA screening data for U.S. airlines showed a slight improvement last week, yet year-over-year growth remains negative, indicating the aviation sector's struggle amid high ticket prices and strategic capacity cuts.
- Major Airlines Decline: Southwest Airlines and Alaska Air experienced TSA screening drops of 4.6% and 6.3%, respectively, while Delta Air Lines and United Airlines saw declines around 2%, reflecting a broader trend of weak demand.
- Capacity Adjustments in Response: Although domestic capacity for Q2 2026 is projected to grow by 3.6%, airlines have begun trimming seat arrangements for upcoming months, with total industry capacity reduced by 0.3% in May and 0.5% in June.
- High Fares Impacting Consumers: Despite a slight uptick in passenger volume, consumer sensitivity to high fares, exacerbated by war-related fuel price spikes, remains a significant headwind for the industry as it approaches the peak summer travel season.
- Fuel Cost Surge: Jet fuel prices have soared over 100% since the start of the Iran war, prompting airlines to cut thousands of flights, which directly impacts consumer travel costs and airline profitability.
- Flight Reductions Impact: The blockage of the Strait of Hormuz has paralyzed about 20% of global jet fuel transport, with an estimated reduction of 620,000 barrels per day in jet fuel supply expected in Q2 2026, exacerbating the aviation crisis.
- Airlines' Response: Delta Air Lines anticipates a $2 billion fuel cost in Q2 and has begun raising fuel surcharges and ticket prices to cope with rising operational costs, indicating a high sense of urgency within the industry.
- Increased Market Competition: High fuel prices force airlines to reduce capacity and consolidate resources, with low-cost carrier Spirit Airlines collapsing under financial pressure, reflecting intensified competition and market restructuring within the industry.
- Oil Price Surge Impact: The Iran war has led to a sharp increase in crude oil prices, creating significant cost pressures for the airline industry, exemplified by Spirit Airlines' bankruptcy, which highlights the sector's fragility.
- Delta Airlines' Strong Performance: Despite challenges from high inflation and declining international travel demand, Delta Airlines reported a 45% increase in Q4 2025 earnings, driven by a 9% rise in premium ticket sales, indicating its advantage in the 'K-shaped economy'.
- Southwest Airlines' Market Opportunity: With Spirit Airlines ceasing operations, Southwest Airlines stands to gain market share and aims for over 300% earnings growth, although high fuel prices introduce uncertainty, management has not revised their full-year outlook, reflecting confidence in future performance.
- Future Outlook and Challenges: While Delta's earnings are expected to decline by 5.3% in 2026, its premiumization trend could yield better-than-expected results, and Southwest must navigate high fuel costs and macroeconomic uncertainty, but a resolution to the conflict could lead to a rebound.
- Tech Stocks Rally: The Nasdaq 100 surged 2.08% to reach an all-time high on Wednesday, driven by stellar earnings from chipmakers and AI infrastructure firms, particularly Advanced Micro Devices, which rose over 17% as it raised its full-year sales forecast, reflecting strong investor optimism about ongoing AI investments.
- Crude Oil Plunge: WTI crude oil prices fell more than 7% to a two-week low as market expectations for a US-Iran peace agreement increased, easing inflation fears and contributing to stock market gains, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping to a one-week low of 4.33%.
- Employment Data Impact: The April ADP employment report indicated that US companies added 109,000 jobs, below the expected 120,000, yet the market remains optimistic about the Fed's monetary policy, believing it will help maintain a low interest rate environment.
- International Market Surge: Overseas stock markets closed sharply higher, with the Euro Stoxx 50 rising 2.68% and China's Shanghai Composite gaining 1.17%, indicating a positive global market response to the US economic recovery, further boosting investor confidence.
- Surge in Fuel Spending: U.S. airlines spent $5.06 billion on jet fuel in March 2026, a 56.4% increase from February and a 30% year-on-year rise, significantly impacting profitability amid rising operational costs.
- Flight Plan Adjustments: Major carriers like Delta Airlines have scaled back flight plans and lowered or scrapped 2026 forecasts due to uncertainty in crude oil prices, indicating serious concerns over future expenses.
- Increased Fuel Usage: According to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics, airlines consumed 1.615 billion gallons of fuel in March 2026, a 19.5% increase from February, with the cost per gallon rising to $3.13, up 31% from the previous month.
- Ticket Sales Growth: Despite soaring fuel costs, airline ticket sales in March rose 12% year-on-year to $10.4 billion, reflecting strong consumer demand with domestic trips up 5% and international trips up 1%.
- Tech Stock Rally: The Nasdaq 100 index surged over 1.44% to reach an all-time high, driven by strong earnings from chipmakers and AI infrastructure stocks, reflecting market optimism about sustained investment growth in artificial intelligence.
- Crude Oil Plunge: WTI crude oil prices fell more than 6% to a two-week low as the US nears a peace agreement with Iran, which is expected to lift restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz, thereby reducing energy costs and enhancing profitability prospects for airlines and cruise lines.
- Employment Data Impact: The April ADP employment change report indicated that US companies added 109,000 jobs, below the expected 120,000, yet the market remains optimistic about the Fed's monetary policy, suggesting a lower likelihood of interest rate hikes.
- Earnings Optimism: So far, 84% of the 375 S&P 500 companies that reported earnings have exceeded expectations, with Q1 earnings projected to rise 12% year-over-year, indicating strong corporate profitability that further supports the stock market's upward trend.











