Lionsgate's 'Michael' Exceeds Box Office Expectations
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 3 days ago
0mins
Should l Buy LION?
Source: seekingalpha
- Strong Box Office Performance: Lionsgate's 'Michael' has already earned over $12.5 million in previews, exceeding expectations and becoming the highest-grossing musical biopic ever, indicating robust market demand and audience interest.
- International Market Success: The film has garnered $18.5 million in international previews and opening-day receipts, surpassing the previous box office champion 'Project Hail Mary' at $12 million, highlighting its global appeal and potential profitability.
- Audience Reception: Despite a low critic score of 40% on Rotten Tomatoes, the film boasts a remarkable 96% audience score, setting a new record for biopics, suggesting strong viewer approval and emotional resonance that could drive further box office growth.
- Content and Impact: Directed by Antoine Fuqua, the film chronicles Michael Jackson's life, focusing on his complex relationship with his father and creative process, while avoiding controversial events, which may influence audience perceptions of his artistic legacy.
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Analyst Views on LION
Wall Street analysts forecast LION stock price to fall
5 Analyst Rating
4 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 11.430
Low
8.00
Averages
9.30
High
11.00
Current: 11.430
Low
8.00
Averages
9.30
High
11.00
About LION
Lionsgate Studios Corp. is a pure play content company. The Company brings together diversified motion picture and television production and distribution businesses, a portfolio of brands and franchises, a talent management and production house and a more than 20,000-title film and television library. The Company's Motion Picture segment consists of the development and production of feature films, acquisition of North American and worldwide distribution rights, North American theatrical, home entertainment and television distribution of feature films produced and acquired, and worldwide licensing of distribution rights to feature films produced and acquired. Its Television Production segment consists of the development, production and worldwide distribution of television productions, including television series, television movies and miniseries, and non-fiction programming. Television Production segment also includes the operations of 3 Arts Entertainment, a talent management company.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Lionsgate's 'Michael' Debuts with $97 Million Opening Weekend
- Strong Opening Performance: Lionsgate's 'Michael' achieved a remarkable $97 million in its domestic opening weekend, marking one of the strongest launches of the year and demonstrating a robust demand for culturally significant films, significantly boosting theater confidence.
- Impressive International Revenue: The film also excelled internationally, grossing $120.4 million, bringing its estimated global opening total to $217.4 million, which provides substantial returns for the producers.
- Significant Market Impact: 'Michael' accounted for nearly two-thirds of the total $146.96 million generated by the top ten films, indicating its powerful influence on the overall market and reminding Hollywood that audiences are willing to pay for cultural events.
- Competitor Performance: While Universal's 'The Super Mario Galaxy Movie' secured second place with $21.2 million, its total gross has reached $386.5 million, highlighting the continued appeal and profitability of family films in the current market landscape.
See More
Lionsgate's 'Michael' Exceeds Box Office Expectations
- Strong Box Office Performance: Lionsgate's 'Michael' has already earned over $12.5 million in previews, exceeding expectations and becoming the highest-grossing musical biopic ever, indicating robust market demand and audience interest.
- International Market Success: The film has garnered $18.5 million in international previews and opening-day receipts, surpassing the previous box office champion 'Project Hail Mary' at $12 million, highlighting its global appeal and potential profitability.
- Audience Reception: Despite a low critic score of 40% on Rotten Tomatoes, the film boasts a remarkable 96% audience score, setting a new record for biopics, suggesting strong viewer approval and emotional resonance that could drive further box office growth.
- Content and Impact: Directed by Antoine Fuqua, the film chronicles Michael Jackson's life, focusing on his complex relationship with his father and creative process, while avoiding controversial events, which may influence audience perceptions of his artistic legacy.
See More
Citi Downgrades Lionsgate to Neutral Amid M&A Premium
- Acquisition Potential Analysis: Citi Research analyst Jason Bazinet views Lionsgate (LION) as an attractive acquisition target; however, he downgraded the stock from Buy to Neutral, indicating that its current price reflects an M&A premium, thus diminishing the risk/reward appeal.
- Acquisition Scenario Insights: Bazinet highlights that the separation from Starz has positioned Lionsgate as a pure-play studio, and the board's collapse of the dual-class share structure simplifies the acquisition process, enhancing the likelihood of a sale.
- Valuation and Target Price Adjustment: Assuming an acquisition multiple of approximately 18x 2027 EV/EBITDA, Bazinet estimates a purchase price of $13.50 per share, prompting Citi to raise its target price from $11 to $12.60, reflecting a 75% likelihood of the acquisition.
- Standalone Valuation and Market Performance: On a standalone basis, Lionsgate's stock is valued at $9 per share, indicating its fundamental worth in the current market, despite library revenue reaching $1.05 billion, which has not translated into revenue growth.
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Scentbird Collaborates with John Wick for New Fragrance Launch
- New Fragrance Collaboration: Scentbird's partnership with Lionsgate introduces a John Wick-themed fragrance aimed at attracting new subscribers and enhancing brand visibility, which is expected to drive user engagement and social performance.
- Fragrance Profile: The John Wick Eau de Parfum features a spicy lemon and gunmetal accord opening, layered with clary sage and refined cedarwood and amber notes, capturing the precision, intensity, and sophistication of the franchise, appealing to fragrance enthusiasts.
- Marketing Strategy: The launch will be promoted through social-first storytelling, creator partnerships, and street activations, designed to boost brand awareness and ignite social media discussions, ultimately driving subscription growth.
- User Base Expansion: With over 1 million subscribers, Scentbird's collaboration with John Wick not only enhances the brand's cultural relevance but also offers users a unique fragrance experience, further solidifying its market position.
See More
Scentbird Collaborates with John Wick for New Fragrance Launch
- New Fragrance Launch: Scentbird's collaboration with Lionsgate introduces the John Wick Eau de Parfum, featuring a blend of spiced lemon and gunmetal accord, aimed at attracting new subscribers and enhancing brand appeal.
- Cultural Experience Strategy: This collaboration transcends product launch by integrating fragrance with storytelling, intending to boost user engagement and brand loyalty through social media and creator partnerships.
- Limited-Time Release Strategy: The John Wick fragrance will be available for a limited time through Scentbird's subscription and à la carte options, expected to draw significant interest from fans and new audiences, driving sales growth.
- Marketing Campaign Activities: The launch will be supported by social-first storytelling, creator collaborations, and street activations designed to enhance brand visibility and spark social conversations, further driving user subscriptions.
See More
Scentbird and Lionsgate Unveil Captivating New Fragrance Line Inspired by Twilight
New Fragrance Collection Announcement: Scentbird has announced the launch of a new fragrance collection called "Enchanting" for the Twilight series, aimed at fans of the franchise.
Target Audience: The collection is designed to appeal to Twilight enthusiasts, offering scents that evoke the themes and characters of the beloved series.
See More
Lionsgate's 'Michael' Debuts with $97 Million Opening Weekend
- Strong Opening Performance: Lionsgate's 'Michael' achieved a remarkable $97 million in its domestic opening weekend, marking one of the strongest launches of the year and demonstrating a robust demand for culturally significant films, significantly boosting theater confidence.
- Impressive International Revenue: The film also excelled internationally, grossing $120.4 million, bringing its estimated global opening total to $217.4 million, which provides substantial returns for the producers.
- Significant Market Impact: 'Michael' accounted for nearly two-thirds of the total $146.96 million generated by the top ten films, indicating its powerful influence on the overall market and reminding Hollywood that audiences are willing to pay for cultural events.
- Competitor Performance: While Universal's 'The Super Mario Galaxy Movie' secured second place with $21.2 million, its total gross has reached $386.5 million, highlighting the continued appeal and profitability of family films in the current market landscape.
See More
Lionsgate's 'Michael' Exceeds Box Office Expectations
- Strong Box Office Performance: Lionsgate's 'Michael' has already earned over $12.5 million in previews, exceeding expectations and becoming the highest-grossing musical biopic ever, indicating robust market demand and audience interest.
- International Market Success: The film has garnered $18.5 million in international previews and opening-day receipts, surpassing the previous box office champion 'Project Hail Mary' at $12 million, highlighting its global appeal and potential profitability.
- Audience Reception: Despite a low critic score of 40% on Rotten Tomatoes, the film boasts a remarkable 96% audience score, setting a new record for biopics, suggesting strong viewer approval and emotional resonance that could drive further box office growth.
- Content and Impact: Directed by Antoine Fuqua, the film chronicles Michael Jackson's life, focusing on his complex relationship with his father and creative process, while avoiding controversial events, which may influence audience perceptions of his artistic legacy.
See More
Citi Downgrades Lionsgate to Neutral Amid M&A Premium
- Acquisition Potential Analysis: Citi Research analyst Jason Bazinet views Lionsgate (LION) as an attractive acquisition target; however, he downgraded the stock from Buy to Neutral, indicating that its current price reflects an M&A premium, thus diminishing the risk/reward appeal.
- Acquisition Scenario Insights: Bazinet highlights that the separation from Starz has positioned Lionsgate as a pure-play studio, and the board's collapse of the dual-class share structure simplifies the acquisition process, enhancing the likelihood of a sale.
- Valuation and Target Price Adjustment: Assuming an acquisition multiple of approximately 18x 2027 EV/EBITDA, Bazinet estimates a purchase price of $13.50 per share, prompting Citi to raise its target price from $11 to $12.60, reflecting a 75% likelihood of the acquisition.
- Standalone Valuation and Market Performance: On a standalone basis, Lionsgate's stock is valued at $9 per share, indicating its fundamental worth in the current market, despite library revenue reaching $1.05 billion, which has not translated into revenue growth.
See More
Scentbird Collaborates with John Wick for New Fragrance Launch
- New Fragrance Collaboration: Scentbird's partnership with Lionsgate introduces a John Wick-themed fragrance aimed at attracting new subscribers and enhancing brand visibility, which is expected to drive user engagement and social performance.
- Fragrance Profile: The John Wick Eau de Parfum features a spicy lemon and gunmetal accord opening, layered with clary sage and refined cedarwood and amber notes, capturing the precision, intensity, and sophistication of the franchise, appealing to fragrance enthusiasts.
- Marketing Strategy: The launch will be promoted through social-first storytelling, creator partnerships, and street activations, designed to boost brand awareness and ignite social media discussions, ultimately driving subscription growth.
- User Base Expansion: With over 1 million subscribers, Scentbird's collaboration with John Wick not only enhances the brand's cultural relevance but also offers users a unique fragrance experience, further solidifying its market position.
See More
Scentbird Collaborates with John Wick for New Fragrance Launch
- New Fragrance Launch: Scentbird's collaboration with Lionsgate introduces the John Wick Eau de Parfum, featuring a blend of spiced lemon and gunmetal accord, aimed at attracting new subscribers and enhancing brand appeal.
- Cultural Experience Strategy: This collaboration transcends product launch by integrating fragrance with storytelling, intending to boost user engagement and brand loyalty through social media and creator partnerships.
- Limited-Time Release Strategy: The John Wick fragrance will be available for a limited time through Scentbird's subscription and à la carte options, expected to draw significant interest from fans and new audiences, driving sales growth.
- Marketing Campaign Activities: The launch will be supported by social-first storytelling, creator collaborations, and street activations designed to enhance brand visibility and spark social conversations, further driving user subscriptions.
See More
Scentbird and Lionsgate Unveil Captivating New Fragrance Line Inspired by Twilight
New Fragrance Collection Announcement: Scentbird has announced the launch of a new fragrance collection called "Enchanting" for the Twilight series, aimed at fans of the franchise.
Target Audience: The collection is designed to appeal to Twilight enthusiasts, offering scents that evoke the themes and characters of the beloved series.
See More
