JPM Adjusts February GGR Projections, Names GALAXY ENT as Preferred Choice
Macau's GGR Performance: Macau's gross gaming revenue (GGR) for the first 22 days of February reached MOP14.3 billion, with a daily average of MOP650 million, falling short of JPMorgan's expectations during the Lunar New Year period.
Forecast Adjustments: Due to mixed performance, JPMorgan revised its February GGR forecast to a flat to 2% increase year-on-year, down from a previous estimate of 2-5% growth, while maintaining a 12-13% growth expectation for the first two months of 2026.
Casino Stock Preferences: JPMorgan updated its preference order for Macau casino stocks, ranking Galaxy Entertainment as the top pick, followed by MGM China and Sands China, all rated Overweight, while Melco Resorts and SJM Holdings were rated Underweight.
Market Reactions: The report noted a decline in casino stocks, with Sands China slipping 2.5% after Citi cut its GGR forecast, reflecting broader market concerns about the gaming sector's performance.
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JPM Projects Future Dividend Increases for GALAXY ENT (00027.HK), Maintains Overweight Rating as Preferred Choice
Annual Results Announcement: GALAXY ENT reported its annual results for FY2025, with 4Q25 results surpassing market expectations, a market share increase of 160 bps QoQ to 21.7%, and a profit growth of 29% QoQ.
Dividend Performance: The final dividend per share (DPS) of $0.8 reflects a 61% payout ratio for FY2025, meeting broker estimates but disappointing some investors hoping for a higher return.
Analyst Ratings: JPMorgan maintained an Overweight rating for GALAXY ENT, designating it as a top pick with a target price of $52, while expressing a selective outlook on the gaming sector.
Future Expectations: There are expectations for gradual dividend increases, with potential positive developments anticipated in the interim results for FY2026, set to be announced in August.
UBS: GALAXY ENT (00027.HK) Reports 4Q25 Adj. EBITDA as Expected; Maintains Buy Rating
Financial Performance: GALAXY ENT reported a 4Q25 adjusted EBITDA of approximately $4.3 billion, reflecting a 33% year-over-year increase and a 29% quarter-over-quarter increase, with adjusted figures showing a 9% YoY and 7% QoQ rise.
Dividend Announcement: The company declared a final dividend per share (DPS) of $0.8, exceeding market expectations, resulting in a total annual DPS of $1.5 and a payout ratio increase to about 61% from 50% in 2024.
M Stanley Sets GALAXY ENT (00027.HK) Target Price at $44 Following Strong Quarterly Results and Increased DPS
Financial Performance: GALAXY ENT reported a 33% year-over-year increase in 4Q25 corporate EBITDA, reaching $4.296 billion, surpassing both Morgan Stanley's forecast and market consensus.
Dividend Information: The company announced a 50% increase in its 2025 dividend per share to $1.50, although its dividend yield of 3.6% remains lower compared to competitors like Sands, MGM, and Wynn.
CLSA Reports GALAXY ENT (00027.HK) Exceeds 4Q25 Adjusted EBITDA Expectations; Company Maintains Position as Sector Leader
Financial Performance: GALAXY ENT reported a 33% year-over-year increase in adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2025, reaching $4.3 billion, surpassing market expectations. The final dividend per share rose by 60% to $0.8, with a full-year payout ratio increase of 1,100 basis points to 61%.
Market Position and Outlook: CLSA maintains an Outperform rating for GALAXY ENT, citing its competitive advantage in the Macau market and potential for further dividend growth, with a target price set at $49.5.
Francis Lui: GALAXY ENT to Thoughtfully Evaluate Dividend Amidst Importance of Cash Flow
Annual Results Announcement: Galaxy Entertainment announced its annual results for 2025, highlighting a significant short selling activity of $43.69 million and a ratio of 14.248%.
Financial Stability Emphasis: Chairman Francis Lui emphasized the Group's strong financial position and the importance of maintaining sufficient cash flow to manage unforeseen circumstances, which will influence future dividend declarations.
G Sachs Anticipates GALAXY ENT Will Have Sufficient Financial Resources for Dividend Increase, but Lowers Price Target to $53.4
Financial Performance: Goldman Sachs reported that GALAXY ENT achieved strong 4Q25 results with EBITDA growth of 29% QoQ to HKD4.3 billion, aligning with expectations and the upper end of consensus estimates.
Dividend Policy: The company declared a final DPS of HKD0.8 for 2H25, increasing its earnings payout to 64%, with management indicating plans to maintain a minimum 65% payout in the future.
Future Outlook: Goldman Sachs believes GALAXY ENT has sufficient financial capacity to increase dividends or adopt a progressive dividend policy, supported by strong free cash flow and substantial net cash reserves.
Market Impact: The upcoming "Two Sessions" from March 4 to 11 may influence gaming and tourism demand, leading Goldman Sachs to slightly adjust its EBITDA forecasts for FY26-27 and lower the 12-month target price from HKD54 to HKD53.4 while maintaining a Buy rating.
JPM Projects Future Dividend Increases for GALAXY ENT (00027.HK), Maintains Overweight Rating as Preferred Choice
Annual Results Announcement: GALAXY ENT reported its annual results for FY2025, with 4Q25 results surpassing market expectations, a market share increase of 160 bps QoQ to 21.7%, and a profit growth of 29% QoQ.
Dividend Performance: The final dividend per share (DPS) of $0.8 reflects a 61% payout ratio for FY2025, meeting broker estimates but disappointing some investors hoping for a higher return.
Analyst Ratings: JPMorgan maintained an Overweight rating for GALAXY ENT, designating it as a top pick with a target price of $52, while expressing a selective outlook on the gaming sector.
Future Expectations: There are expectations for gradual dividend increases, with potential positive developments anticipated in the interim results for FY2026, set to be announced in August.
UBS: GALAXY ENT (00027.HK) Reports 4Q25 Adj. EBITDA as Expected; Maintains Buy Rating
Financial Performance: GALAXY ENT reported a 4Q25 adjusted EBITDA of approximately $4.3 billion, reflecting a 33% year-over-year increase and a 29% quarter-over-quarter increase, with adjusted figures showing a 9% YoY and 7% QoQ rise.
Dividend Announcement: The company declared a final dividend per share (DPS) of $0.8, exceeding market expectations, resulting in a total annual DPS of $1.5 and a payout ratio increase to about 61% from 50% in 2024.
M Stanley Sets GALAXY ENT (00027.HK) Target Price at $44 Following Strong Quarterly Results and Increased DPS
Financial Performance: GALAXY ENT reported a 33% year-over-year increase in 4Q25 corporate EBITDA, reaching $4.296 billion, surpassing both Morgan Stanley's forecast and market consensus.
Dividend Information: The company announced a 50% increase in its 2025 dividend per share to $1.50, although its dividend yield of 3.6% remains lower compared to competitors like Sands, MGM, and Wynn.
CLSA Reports GALAXY ENT (00027.HK) Exceeds 4Q25 Adjusted EBITDA Expectations; Company Maintains Position as Sector Leader
Financial Performance: GALAXY ENT reported a 33% year-over-year increase in adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2025, reaching $4.3 billion, surpassing market expectations. The final dividend per share rose by 60% to $0.8, with a full-year payout ratio increase of 1,100 basis points to 61%.
Market Position and Outlook: CLSA maintains an Outperform rating for GALAXY ENT, citing its competitive advantage in the Macau market and potential for further dividend growth, with a target price set at $49.5.
Francis Lui: GALAXY ENT to Thoughtfully Evaluate Dividend Amidst Importance of Cash Flow
Annual Results Announcement: Galaxy Entertainment announced its annual results for 2025, highlighting a significant short selling activity of $43.69 million and a ratio of 14.248%.
Financial Stability Emphasis: Chairman Francis Lui emphasized the Group's strong financial position and the importance of maintaining sufficient cash flow to manage unforeseen circumstances, which will influence future dividend declarations.
G Sachs Anticipates GALAXY ENT Will Have Sufficient Financial Resources for Dividend Increase, but Lowers Price Target to $53.4
Financial Performance: Goldman Sachs reported that GALAXY ENT achieved strong 4Q25 results with EBITDA growth of 29% QoQ to HKD4.3 billion, aligning with expectations and the upper end of consensus estimates.
Dividend Policy: The company declared a final DPS of HKD0.8 for 2H25, increasing its earnings payout to 64%, with management indicating plans to maintain a minimum 65% payout in the future.
Future Outlook: Goldman Sachs believes GALAXY ENT has sufficient financial capacity to increase dividends or adopt a progressive dividend policy, supported by strong free cash flow and substantial net cash reserves.
Market Impact: The upcoming "Two Sessions" from March 4 to 11 may influence gaming and tourism demand, leading Goldman Sachs to slightly adjust its EBITDA forecasts for FY26-27 and lower the 12-month target price from HKD54 to HKD53.4 while maintaining a Buy rating.
