Investing in Gold, Oil, and Dollar Amid Venezuela Blockade; Silver Reaches All-Time High; Fed's Credibility Under Threat
Silver Market Update: Silver has reached a new record price, currently trading at $66.27, with potential for a pullback as it is considered overbought. The target for silver futures is noted to be $70.
U.S. and Venezuela Tensions: President Trump's blockade of sanctioned oil tankers in Venezuela could lead to market fluctuations, with potential increases in gold, silver, oil, and stock prices if military action occurs.
Federal Reserve Credibility Concerns: The Fed's credibility is at risk due to ongoing interest rate cuts influenced by political pressure, as highlighted by Atlanta Fed President Bostic's comments on the importance of maintaining credibility in monetary policy.
Investment Strategies and Market Trends: Investors are advised to hold long-term positions while considering protective measures like cash or short-term trades. The article also emphasizes the importance of monitoring money flows in major stocks and ETFs, particularly in the context of the upcoming Consumer Price Index release.
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- Stock Split Motivation: Meta has yet to execute a stock split despite its stock price rising over 200% in the past three years, currently trading around $670, which may deter some investors due to its psychological price barrier.
- Market Performance Analysis: Although Meta's stock has declined over 6% in the past year, its market capitalization remains at $1.7 trillion, indicating the company's strong position and potential investment appeal in the market.
- AI Investment Priority: Meta has recently focused on enhancing its AI capabilities and infrastructure investments, suggesting that a stock split is not a current priority but may be reconsidered in 2026.
- Future Outlook: Should Meta's stock gain momentum and rise quickly in the coming year, it may contemplate executing a stock split, aligning itself with other tech giants to attract more investors.
- Tech Stocks Plummet: Fears of potential disruptions from artificial intelligence led to a significant decline in tech stocks, with the Nasdaq Composite dropping over 2% and Apple shares falling around 5%, indicating market anxiety about the future of the tech sector.
- Dow Jones Decline: The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell approximately 1.3%, or over 650 points, breaking a three-day winning streak, reflecting investor caution ahead of upcoming inflation data that could influence Federal Reserve rate decisions.
- Gold and Bitcoin Drop: Gold futures sank 3%, while Bitcoin prices also declined to around $65,000, as investors adopted a risk-off stance, highlighting concerns about the future economic outlook.
- Employment Data Impacting Policy Expectations: Despite January's job additions being double the expected amount, the strong labor market has dampened expectations for near-term interest rate cuts by the Fed, increasing uncertainty in the stock market.
- Questionable Timing: Congressman John McGuire's rapid buying and selling of Microsoft stock within just 10 days raises concerns about the unusual nature of his trading activities, particularly given his role on the Armed Services Committee, which may present potential conflicts of interest.
- Disclosure Details: The trades were executed by McGuire's spouse through an IRA, with a maximum disclosed trade size of $15,000, suggesting he may not have been directly involved in the transactions, which raises questions about transparency.
- Market Reaction Analysis: Microsoft shares traded between $438.68 and $452.69 at purchase and fell to $426.45 to $439.60 at sale, indicating a potential loss of 5.8%, highlighting the risks associated with his investment decisions.
- Historical Trading Context: Since joining Congress in 2025, McGuire has had minimal trading activity, with previous trades also drawing scrutiny regarding potential conflicts of interest in the healthcare sector, intensifying public scrutiny of his trading behavior.
- Investor Insight: Prominent investor Chamath Palihapitiya highlights that since late November 2022, Microsoft has had the worst stock performance among tech giants, indicating limited returns on its investment in OpenAI, which may lower market expectations and negatively impact stock price.
- Volatility Analysis: Volatility skew data shows that for the March 20 expiration, put options have significantly higher implied volatility than call options, indicating a heightened focus on downside risk, which could lead to increased demand for hedging against Microsoft stock.
- Trading Parameters: According to the Black-Scholes model, Microsoft stock is expected to trade within a range of $402 to $423 over the next 36 days with a 68% probability, suggesting a conservative market outlook where a strong catalyst is needed to drive significant price movement.
- Hedging Strategy: Investors might consider a 410/415 bull call spread, which could yield a maximum profit of 117% if Microsoft stock exceeds $415 at expiration, indicating potential profit opportunities despite the prevailing market risks.
- Freight Brokers and AI: Freight brokers, once seen as beneficiaries of artificial intelligence, are now facing challenges from software companies leveraging AI technology.
- Shift in Perception: The shift in perception highlights the evolving landscape of the freight industry as AI continues to advance and disrupt traditional roles.
- Impact on the Industry: This change suggests that freight brokers may need to adapt to remain competitive in an increasingly automated environment.
- Future Considerations: The situation raises questions about the long-term implications of AI on various sectors within the logistics and transportation industries.
- Market Value Loss: On Thursday, Wall Street's tech sector saw over $500 billion wiped off market value across 10 major companies, indicating a sharp decline in investor confidence amid simultaneous pressures on both software and hardware sectors.
- Cisco Earnings Impact: Cisco's stock plummeted 11% despite reporting earnings of $1.04 per share, exceeding expectations, as the company’s gross margin guidance of 65.5%-66.5% fell short of the 68% consensus, highlighting the impact of rising hardware costs.
- Memory Shortage Risks: Lenovo confirmed mounting pressure on PC shipments, with CEO Yang Yuanqing stating that while unit pressures are expected, the company aims to maintain profitability, reflecting growing concerns over memory shortages in the industry.
- Software Sector Decline: The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF dropped over 3% on Thursday, with the sector down over 20% year-to-date, illustrating the ongoing impact of fears surrounding AI disruption on software stock performance.










