Impact of SpaceX IPO on Tesla Stock
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1 hour ago
0mins
Source: Fool
- Market Valuation Comparison: SpaceX's market cap stands at $2 trillion, while Tesla's is at $1.5 trillion, despite Tesla nearing $98 billion in annual sales and boasting a stronger profitability with a 4.9% operating margin.
- Revenue and Loss Analysis: SpaceX generated only $19.3 billion in revenue over the past year, incurring a loss of $8.7 billion, whereas Tesla has been profitable since 2019, generating $7 billion in free cash flow annually, highlighting significant financial health differences.
- Future Growth Potential: SpaceX's future revenue is heavily tied to AI infrastructure, with a projected market opportunity of $26.5 trillion, while Tesla aims for higher valuations through autonomous driving software and robotics, potentially pushing its market cap to $5 trillion.
- Strategic Collaboration Outlook: SpaceX and Tesla share engineering resources and intellectual property, with plans to deepen their strategic collaboration, potentially considering a merger, which could lead to Tesla's stock being acquired at a higher valuation by SpaceX, influencing investor decisions.
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About SPCX
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. designs, manufactures, launches, and operates products and services built on technologies, including rockets and spacecraft. The Company's segments include Space, Connectivity, and artificial intelligence (AI). Its Space segment designs, manufactures, and launches reusable rockets to provide access to space. Its Connectivity segment operates broadband data and communications network powered by approximately 9,600 Starlink broadband and mobile satellites in Low-Earth orbit, delivering connectivity to consumer, enterprises, and government customers over 164 countries, territories, and other markets. In its AI segment, it operates a vertically integrated AI platform spanning its truth-seeking frontier model Grok, AI solutions for consumer and enterprise customers, X-its real-time information, entertainment, and free speech platform and AI computational infrastructure.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
SpaceX Stock Rises 15% Post-IPO Amid Upcoming Earnings Report
- Stock Performance: SpaceX shares have risen 15% after one week of trading, rebounding from the initial public offering price, indicating market optimism about its future performance, although some investors are waiting for a more attractive entry point.
- Earnings Report Expectations: The company is set to release its second-quarter earnings report at the end of July or early August, providing investors with crucial insights into its performance and future outlook, which could significantly impact stock price movements.
- Lockup Period Ending: The first lockup period will end the day after the earnings report, potentially flooding the market with new shares, a scenario that typically leads to price declines, prompting investors to carefully evaluate their buying strategies.
- Market Valuation: Currently valued at $2.4 trillion, SpaceX aimed to raise $75 billion in its IPO but may have raised $86 billion, reflecting strong market confidence in its valuation, yet raising concerns about whether the stock price is too high.
See More
SpaceX IPO Preview: Massive AI Market Potential
- Market Opportunity Analysis: In its S-1 filing, SpaceX forecasts a total addressable market of $28.5 trillion, with $26.5 trillion attributed to artificial intelligence (AI), indicating its ambitions extend beyond space, and successful execution could significantly enhance long-term growth potential.
- AI Infrastructure Revenue: Ahead of the IPO, SpaceX secured a deal with Anthropic to rent compute capacity at its Colossus 1 data center for $1.2 billion per month, alongside a $920 million monthly agreement with Alphabet, establishing a steady revenue stream for the company.
- Space Data Center Initiative: SpaceX has applied to launch one million satellites as data centers, expected to be deployed by 2028, which will leverage solar power to address the energy bottlenecks faced by ground-based data centers, further driving the commercialization of AI infrastructure.
- Financial Risks and Potential: While SpaceX's AI division is projected to generate $322 billion in revenue by 2025, it reported losses of $4.6 billion in 2023 and $4.9 billion in 2025, highlighting the significant financial risks and uncertainties associated with pursuing the vast AI market potential.
See More
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- Market Reaction: In its first week as a public company, SpaceX was not valued like a traditional rocket stock; instead, investors focused on its platform that integrates Starlink's satellite internet cash flow, a leading position in rocket launches, and expanding AI infrastructure, indicating optimism about its future potential.
- Stock Price Volatility: Since its IPO, SpaceX's stock has pulled back to $154.60 from its peak, reflecting growing skepticism among investors regarding its premium valuation and a cautious outlook on future growth.
- Revenue Forecast: Analysts estimate SpaceX's revenue could range from $54.8 billion to $79.3 billion by 2027, with an average estimate of $64.1 billion; at the current stock price, this implies a price-to-sales ratio of 31.8, demonstrating market confidence in its growth prospects.
- Growth Drivers: The Starlink connectivity segment generated $11.4 billion in revenue in 2025, and while ARPU has declined, successfully attracting enterprise and government customers could help offset this trend and further drive long-term growth for the company.
See More
SoftBank to Invest $500 Billion in Ohio Data Center Project
- Massive Investment: SoftBank Group CEO Masayoshi Son announced a monumental $500 billion investment in a data center project in Ohio, which is expected to significantly boost the local economy and create numerous job opportunities.
- Legislative Push: The U.S. House of Representatives will begin considering the Ratepayer Protection Act, which mandates tech companies to pay for the strain their data centers place on the power grid, addressing public dissatisfaction with rising electricity costs for families and small businesses.
- Bipartisan Support: The bill, co-sponsored by both Republican and Democratic representatives, aims to ensure that data center builders cover the costs of grid upgrades, thereby protecting consumer interests and promoting sustainable development.
- Industry Response: While some major tech companies have signed pledges indicating their willingness to pay for new electricity production, the bill still faces a lengthy legislative process before it can become law, highlighting the complexities of regulatory approval.
See More
SpaceX Executes Historic IPO, Surpassing $2.5 Trillion Valuation
- IPO Performance: SpaceX executed one of the largest IPOs in history, going public at a $1.77 trillion valuation and quickly surpassing $2.5 trillion in market cap, despite a $4.9 billion loss in 2025, indicating strong market confidence in its future potential.
- Stock Volatility: Following its IPO, SpaceX's stock surged from $150 to nearly $220 per share within days, only to settle back around $160, reflecting a 27% drop due to the limited float of just 4.2% of outstanding shares, which contributes to high volatility.
- AI Business Outlook: SpaceX estimates a $26.5 trillion market opportunity primarily from enterprise applications, while the combined market for rockets and Starlink is only $2 trillion, highlighting the company's heavy reliance on its AI division for valuation justification.
- Space Data Center Initiative: The company aims to launch 1 million AI compute satellites into low Earth orbit to address growth constraints faced by data centers, although the feasibility of this ambitious plan remains highly uncertain.
See More
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- Major Deal Announcement: SpaceX's agreement with Anthropic to lease 300 megawatts of AI compute capacity for three years at $1.25 billion per month translates to an anticipated annual revenue of $15 billion, significantly boosting the company's overall revenue.
- Google Partnership Expansion: Alphabet, Google's parent company, has agreed to lease approximately 110,000 Nvidia GPUs from SpaceX, adding an estimated $11 billion in annualized revenue, further solidifying SpaceX's position in the AI computing market.
- New Customer Acquisition: Reflection AI has become SpaceX's third AI compute customer, paying $150 per month, which equates to $1.8 billion annually, showcasing SpaceX's strong growth potential in the AI sector.
- Successful Strategic Pivot: By monetizing excess GPU capacity from the Grok AI model, SpaceX has added approximately $27.5 billion in annual revenue, marking a successful transition from traditional business to high-margin, sustainable revenue streams.
See More
SpaceX Stock Rises 15% Post-IPO Amid Upcoming Earnings Report
- Stock Performance: SpaceX shares have risen 15% after one week of trading, rebounding from the initial public offering price, indicating market optimism about its future performance, although some investors are waiting for a more attractive entry point.
- Earnings Report Expectations: The company is set to release its second-quarter earnings report at the end of July or early August, providing investors with crucial insights into its performance and future outlook, which could significantly impact stock price movements.
- Lockup Period Ending: The first lockup period will end the day after the earnings report, potentially flooding the market with new shares, a scenario that typically leads to price declines, prompting investors to carefully evaluate their buying strategies.
- Market Valuation: Currently valued at $2.4 trillion, SpaceX aimed to raise $75 billion in its IPO but may have raised $86 billion, reflecting strong market confidence in its valuation, yet raising concerns about whether the stock price is too high.
See More
SpaceX IPO Preview: Massive AI Market Potential
- Market Opportunity Analysis: In its S-1 filing, SpaceX forecasts a total addressable market of $28.5 trillion, with $26.5 trillion attributed to artificial intelligence (AI), indicating its ambitions extend beyond space, and successful execution could significantly enhance long-term growth potential.
- AI Infrastructure Revenue: Ahead of the IPO, SpaceX secured a deal with Anthropic to rent compute capacity at its Colossus 1 data center for $1.2 billion per month, alongside a $920 million monthly agreement with Alphabet, establishing a steady revenue stream for the company.
- Space Data Center Initiative: SpaceX has applied to launch one million satellites as data centers, expected to be deployed by 2028, which will leverage solar power to address the energy bottlenecks faced by ground-based data centers, further driving the commercialization of AI infrastructure.
- Financial Risks and Potential: While SpaceX's AI division is projected to generate $322 billion in revenue by 2025, it reported losses of $4.6 billion in 2023 and $4.9 billion in 2025, highlighting the significant financial risks and uncertainties associated with pursuing the vast AI market potential.
See More
Analysis of SpaceX's First Week as a Public Company
- Market Reaction: In its first week as a public company, SpaceX was not valued like a traditional rocket stock; instead, investors focused on its platform that integrates Starlink's satellite internet cash flow, a leading position in rocket launches, and expanding AI infrastructure, indicating optimism about its future potential.
- Stock Price Volatility: Since its IPO, SpaceX's stock has pulled back to $154.60 from its peak, reflecting growing skepticism among investors regarding its premium valuation and a cautious outlook on future growth.
- Revenue Forecast: Analysts estimate SpaceX's revenue could range from $54.8 billion to $79.3 billion by 2027, with an average estimate of $64.1 billion; at the current stock price, this implies a price-to-sales ratio of 31.8, demonstrating market confidence in its growth prospects.
- Growth Drivers: The Starlink connectivity segment generated $11.4 billion in revenue in 2025, and while ARPU has declined, successfully attracting enterprise and government customers could help offset this trend and further drive long-term growth for the company.
See More
SoftBank to Invest $500 Billion in Ohio Data Center Project
- Massive Investment: SoftBank Group CEO Masayoshi Son announced a monumental $500 billion investment in a data center project in Ohio, which is expected to significantly boost the local economy and create numerous job opportunities.
- Legislative Push: The U.S. House of Representatives will begin considering the Ratepayer Protection Act, which mandates tech companies to pay for the strain their data centers place on the power grid, addressing public dissatisfaction with rising electricity costs for families and small businesses.
- Bipartisan Support: The bill, co-sponsored by both Republican and Democratic representatives, aims to ensure that data center builders cover the costs of grid upgrades, thereby protecting consumer interests and promoting sustainable development.
- Industry Response: While some major tech companies have signed pledges indicating their willingness to pay for new electricity production, the bill still faces a lengthy legislative process before it can become law, highlighting the complexities of regulatory approval.
See More
SpaceX Executes Historic IPO, Surpassing $2.5 Trillion Valuation
- IPO Performance: SpaceX executed one of the largest IPOs in history, going public at a $1.77 trillion valuation and quickly surpassing $2.5 trillion in market cap, despite a $4.9 billion loss in 2025, indicating strong market confidence in its future potential.
- Stock Volatility: Following its IPO, SpaceX's stock surged from $150 to nearly $220 per share within days, only to settle back around $160, reflecting a 27% drop due to the limited float of just 4.2% of outstanding shares, which contributes to high volatility.
- AI Business Outlook: SpaceX estimates a $26.5 trillion market opportunity primarily from enterprise applications, while the combined market for rockets and Starlink is only $2 trillion, highlighting the company's heavy reliance on its AI division for valuation justification.
- Space Data Center Initiative: The company aims to launch 1 million AI compute satellites into low Earth orbit to address growth constraints faced by data centers, although the feasibility of this ambitious plan remains highly uncertain.
See More
SpaceX's AI Business Revenue Surges with Major Deals
- Major Deal Announcement: SpaceX's agreement with Anthropic to lease 300 megawatts of AI compute capacity for three years at $1.25 billion per month translates to an anticipated annual revenue of $15 billion, significantly boosting the company's overall revenue.
- Google Partnership Expansion: Alphabet, Google's parent company, has agreed to lease approximately 110,000 Nvidia GPUs from SpaceX, adding an estimated $11 billion in annualized revenue, further solidifying SpaceX's position in the AI computing market.
- New Customer Acquisition: Reflection AI has become SpaceX's third AI compute customer, paying $150 per month, which equates to $1.8 billion annually, showcasing SpaceX's strong growth potential in the AI sector.
- Successful Strategic Pivot: By monetizing excess GPU capacity from the Grok AI model, SpaceX has added approximately $27.5 billion in annual revenue, marking a successful transition from traditional business to high-margin, sustainable revenue streams.
See More
