HSBC Research Raises COSCO SHIP PORT's Target Price to HKD5.2 and Downgrades CHINA MER PORT's Rating to Reduce
Forecast on Container Throughput: HSBC Global Research predicts a significant slowdown in container throughput at Chinese ports in the second half of 2025, influenced by US tariffs and a high base from the previous year, with the US National Retail Federation expecting an 8.4% and 20% decline in container imports for Q3 and Q4 of 2025, respectively.
Impact on Earnings and Ratings: The anticipated slowdown is expected to reduce earnings for related companies by 2-21% in 2H25, leading to a downgrade of CHINA MER PORT's rating from Hold to Reduce, while COSCO SHIP PORT's target price was raised, maintaining a Neutral rating.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Analyst Views on 00144
About the author
<Study> G Sachs Ratings and Price Targets for Airlines, Shipping Companies, and Port Stocks (Table)
Stock Performance: Air China saw a slight increase of 0.431%, while China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines experienced minor declines. COSCO Ship Energy had a notable rise of 4.249%.
Short Selling Data: Air China had a short selling ratio of 12.263%, with significant short selling observed in COSCO Ship Energy at 22.876%.
Analyst Ratings: Analysts maintain a "Buy" rating for Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines, with target price adjustments reflecting potential growth.
Market Outlook: Morgan Stanley is optimistic about the airline and tanker sectors for 2026, while being cautious regarding container shipping, indicating a mixed outlook for the industry.
G Sachs Optimistic About Airlines and Tankers in 2026, Pessimistic on Containers
Aviation Sector Outlook: Goldman Sachs is optimistic about aviation stocks, particularly AIR CHINA and CEA, anticipating further increases in ticket prices despite potential risks in Japan during the first half of 2026.
Container Shipping Concerns: The bank has adopted a cautious stance on container shipping due to a recovery in supply, which may compress profit margins, and the potential reopening of the Red Sea could release about 10% of effective capacity, impacting COSCO SHIP HOLD.
Crude Oil Tanker Projections: Goldman Sachs expects spot freight rates for crude oil tankers to rise in 2026, driven by China's prolonged crude oil reserve process, with COSCO SHIP ENGY likely to benefit from this trend.
Investment Ratings: The report includes various investment ratings and target prices for several companies, with a general recommendation to buy for most aviation and shipping stocks, while COSCO SHIP HOLD is rated neutral to sell.
G Sachs Raises COSCO SHIP PORT's Target Price; CN Container Volume Projected to Increase by 4.6% in 2025
China's Port Growth: Despite US tariffs and trade uncertainties, China's port container throughput grew by 7% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with forecasts predicting a slowdown to 2% growth in the second half of the year.
Shipping Stocks Recommendations: Goldman Sachs has upgraded target prices for COSCO SHIP PORT and CHINA MER PORT, favoring COSCO due to its strong performance in Europe and projecting a 5% dividend yield for 2025.
<BofAS Analysis> Ratings and Target Prices for Logistics Stocks (Table)
Stock Ratings Overview: ZTO Express is rated Neutral with a target price decrease from USD 22 to 20, while Yunda and STO are rated Underperform with target price adjustments. JD Logistics and S.F. Holding are rated Buy, indicating positive outlooks.
Market Trends: The Chinese courier sector is currently lacking short-term catalysts, with SF Holding and JD Logistics identified as good entry points for investors.
Short Selling Activity: J&T Express and JD Logistics are experiencing significant short selling, with ratios of 14.673% and 8.004%, respectively, indicating bearish sentiment among investors.
Target Price Adjustments: HSBC Research has raised the target price for COSCO Ship Port to HKD 5.2 while downgrading China Merchants Port's rating to Reduce, reflecting changing market conditions.
HSBC Research Raises COSCO SHIP PORT's Target Price to HKD5.2 and Downgrades CHINA MER PORT's Rating to Reduce
Forecast on Container Throughput: HSBC Global Research predicts a significant slowdown in container throughput at Chinese ports in the second half of 2025, influenced by US tariffs and a high base from the previous year, with the US National Retail Federation expecting an 8.4% and 20% decline in container imports for Q3 and Q4 of 2025, respectively.
Impact on Earnings and Ratings: The anticipated slowdown is expected to reduce earnings for related companies by 2-21% in 2H25, leading to a downgrade of CHINA MER PORT's rating from Hold to Reduce, while COSCO SHIP PORT's target price was raised, maintaining a Neutral rating.
<Research>UBS Adds CHINA MER PORT (00144.HK) TP to $17.5, Keeps Rating at Buy
UBS Forecast for CHINA MER PORT: UBS predicts a 6% year-on-year increase in recurring net profit for CHINA MER PORT in the first half of 2025, driven by growth in container volume and a tariff hike.
Target Price Adjustment: The target price for CHINA MER PORT has been raised from $16.9 to $17.5, reflecting better-than-expected performance, while net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have also been increased by 1-3%.
<Study> G Sachs Ratings and Price Targets for Airlines, Shipping Companies, and Port Stocks (Table)
Stock Performance: Air China saw a slight increase of 0.431%, while China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines experienced minor declines. COSCO Ship Energy had a notable rise of 4.249%.
Short Selling Data: Air China had a short selling ratio of 12.263%, with significant short selling observed in COSCO Ship Energy at 22.876%.
Analyst Ratings: Analysts maintain a "Buy" rating for Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines, with target price adjustments reflecting potential growth.
Market Outlook: Morgan Stanley is optimistic about the airline and tanker sectors for 2026, while being cautious regarding container shipping, indicating a mixed outlook for the industry.
G Sachs Optimistic About Airlines and Tankers in 2026, Pessimistic on Containers
Aviation Sector Outlook: Goldman Sachs is optimistic about aviation stocks, particularly AIR CHINA and CEA, anticipating further increases in ticket prices despite potential risks in Japan during the first half of 2026.
Container Shipping Concerns: The bank has adopted a cautious stance on container shipping due to a recovery in supply, which may compress profit margins, and the potential reopening of the Red Sea could release about 10% of effective capacity, impacting COSCO SHIP HOLD.
Crude Oil Tanker Projections: Goldman Sachs expects spot freight rates for crude oil tankers to rise in 2026, driven by China's prolonged crude oil reserve process, with COSCO SHIP ENGY likely to benefit from this trend.
Investment Ratings: The report includes various investment ratings and target prices for several companies, with a general recommendation to buy for most aviation and shipping stocks, while COSCO SHIP HOLD is rated neutral to sell.
G Sachs Raises COSCO SHIP PORT's Target Price; CN Container Volume Projected to Increase by 4.6% in 2025
China's Port Growth: Despite US tariffs and trade uncertainties, China's port container throughput grew by 7% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with forecasts predicting a slowdown to 2% growth in the second half of the year.
Shipping Stocks Recommendations: Goldman Sachs has upgraded target prices for COSCO SHIP PORT and CHINA MER PORT, favoring COSCO due to its strong performance in Europe and projecting a 5% dividend yield for 2025.
<BofAS Analysis> Ratings and Target Prices for Logistics Stocks (Table)
Stock Ratings Overview: ZTO Express is rated Neutral with a target price decrease from USD 22 to 20, while Yunda and STO are rated Underperform with target price adjustments. JD Logistics and S.F. Holding are rated Buy, indicating positive outlooks.
Market Trends: The Chinese courier sector is currently lacking short-term catalysts, with SF Holding and JD Logistics identified as good entry points for investors.
Short Selling Activity: J&T Express and JD Logistics are experiencing significant short selling, with ratios of 14.673% and 8.004%, respectively, indicating bearish sentiment among investors.
Target Price Adjustments: HSBC Research has raised the target price for COSCO Ship Port to HKD 5.2 while downgrading China Merchants Port's rating to Reduce, reflecting changing market conditions.
HSBC Research Raises COSCO SHIP PORT's Target Price to HKD5.2 and Downgrades CHINA MER PORT's Rating to Reduce
Forecast on Container Throughput: HSBC Global Research predicts a significant slowdown in container throughput at Chinese ports in the second half of 2025, influenced by US tariffs and a high base from the previous year, with the US National Retail Federation expecting an 8.4% and 20% decline in container imports for Q3 and Q4 of 2025, respectively.
Impact on Earnings and Ratings: The anticipated slowdown is expected to reduce earnings for related companies by 2-21% in 2H25, leading to a downgrade of CHINA MER PORT's rating from Hold to Reduce, while COSCO SHIP PORT's target price was raised, maintaining a Neutral rating.
<Research>UBS Adds CHINA MER PORT (00144.HK) TP to $17.5, Keeps Rating at Buy
UBS Forecast for CHINA MER PORT: UBS predicts a 6% year-on-year increase in recurring net profit for CHINA MER PORT in the first half of 2025, driven by growth in container volume and a tariff hike.
Target Price Adjustment: The target price for CHINA MER PORT has been raised from $16.9 to $17.5, reflecting better-than-expected performance, while net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have also been increased by 1-3%.
