Hedge Funds Show Divided Stance on Microsoft in Q4 2025
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1 hour ago
0mins
Should l Buy MSFT?
Source: seekingalpha
- Investor Additions: Soros Fund Management increased its Microsoft stake by 159% in Q4 2025, raising shares from 101,743 to 263,041, reflecting a $74.5 million increase in notional value, indicating strong confidence in Microsoft's future growth.
- Other Increases: 3G Capital also significantly raised its Microsoft holdings by 157%, expanding from 35,000 shares to 90,000, demonstrating a continued bullish outlook on Microsoft's long-term investment strategy.
- Reduction Trends: Conversely, Renaissance Technologies cut its Microsoft stake by 48% in Q4, while Third Point and Tiger Global Management each reduced their positions by 16%, reflecting a cautious sentiment among some investors regarding market prospects.
- Institutional Holdings Changes: Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan trimmed their stakes by 6% and 7%, respectively, highlighting the risk management strategies adopted by large institutional investors amid market volatility, which could impact Microsoft's stock price stability.
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Analyst Views on MSFT
Wall Street analysts forecast MSFT stock price to rise
34 Analyst Rating
32 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 398.460
Low
500.00
Averages
631.36
High
678.00
Current: 398.460
Low
500.00
Averages
631.36
High
678.00
About MSFT
Microsoft Corporation is a technology company that develops and supports software, services, devices, and solutions. Its Productivity and Business Processes segment consists of products and services in its portfolio of productivity, communication, and information services, spanning a variety of devices and platforms. It comprises Microsoft 365 Commercial products and cloud services; Microsoft 365 Consumer products and cloud services; LinkedIn, and Dynamics products and cloud services. The Intelligent Cloud segment consists of its public, private, and hybrid server products and cloud services. It comprises server products and cloud services, including Azure, and enterprise and partner services, including Enterprise Support Services. Its More Personal Computing segment primarily comprises Windows and Devices, including Windows OEM licensing; Gaming, including Xbox hardware and Xbox content; Search and news advertising, comprising Bing and Copilot, Microsoft News, and Microsoft Edge.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Other Increases: 3G Capital also significantly raised its Microsoft holdings by 157%, expanding from 35,000 shares to 90,000, demonstrating a continued bullish outlook on Microsoft's long-term investment strategy.
- Reduction Trends: Conversely, Renaissance Technologies cut its Microsoft stake by 48% in Q4, while Third Point and Tiger Global Management each reduced their positions by 16%, reflecting a cautious sentiment among some investors regarding market prospects.
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- Revenue Projections: The company anticipates total revenue exceeding $280 billion by 2030, with expected equal contributions from consumer and enterprise segments, indicating a strategic focus on diversifying its revenue streams.
- Funding Developments: OpenAI is finalizing a funding round exceeding $100 billion, with about 90% of investments coming from strategic investors such as Nvidia, SoftBank, and Amazon, which will provide robust financial support for its future initiatives.
- User Growth Recovery: Following a slowdown, ChatGPT's weekly active users have surged from 800 million to 900 million, demonstrating strong market demand, particularly in India where users aged 18 to 24 account for about 50%, laying a solid foundation for future product launches.
See More
Insider Transactions at Microsoft and Other Major Companies
- Microsoft Executive Purchase: Microsoft director Stanton John purchased 5,000 shares at $397.35 each, totaling $1.99 million, amidst a 17% year-to-date decline, increasing his holdings to 83,905 shares, indicating confidence in the company's future.
- DraftKings Significant Buy: DraftKings director Sloan acquired 100,000 shares at $21.85 each on February 17, 2026, for approximately $2.19 million, raising his total holdings to 350,219 shares, reflecting optimism about the company's growth potential.
- Disney Director Increase: Disney director Amy Chang bought 916 shares at an average price of $107.85, totaling $98,790, increasing her holdings to 14,720 shares, which demonstrates confidence in the company's future development.
- Chevron Executive Sell-off: Chevron's controller Alana K. Knowles sold 2,408 shares at $183.2752 each, generating about $441,314, indicating a cautious outlook among executives regarding the company's prospects.
See More
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- Leadership Restructuring: Sharma, who previously led product development for AI models and services, will report directly to CEO Satya Nadella, while Matt Booty has been promoted to executive vice president and chief content officer, enhancing the team's expertise in game content and studios.
- Strategic Planning: Nadella emphasized that Asha and Matt's combination of consumer product leadership and gaming depth will propel platform innovation and content pipeline development, showcasing Microsoft's commitment to the future gaming market.
- Smooth Transition: Phil Spencer will continue to support Microsoft in an advisory role through the summer to ensure a seamless leadership transition, reflecting the company's commitment to sustained growth and trust in the new leadership team.
See More
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- Investor Additions: Soros Fund Management increased its Microsoft stake by 159% in Q4 2025, raising shares from 101,743 to 263,041, reflecting a $74.5 million increase in notional value, indicating strong confidence in Microsoft's future growth.
- Other Increases: 3G Capital also significantly raised its Microsoft holdings by 157%, expanding from 35,000 shares to 90,000, demonstrating a continued bullish outlook on Microsoft's long-term investment strategy.
- Reduction Trends: Conversely, Renaissance Technologies cut its Microsoft stake by 48% in Q4, while Third Point and Tiger Global Management each reduced their positions by 16%, reflecting a cautious sentiment among some investors regarding market prospects.
- Institutional Holdings Changes: Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan trimmed their stakes by 6% and 7%, respectively, highlighting the risk management strategies adopted by large institutional investors amid market volatility, which could impact Microsoft's stock price stability.
See More
Retail Investors Hype Five Hot Stocks This Week
- Super Micro Computer Buzz: Retail investors are so bullish on Super Micro Computer (SMCI) that they jokingly consider betting their entire portfolio on it, despite a 45.74% annual decline and current trading around $32 to $35, indicating high risk and potential reward in the short term.
- Hims & Hers Health Outlook: Hims & Hers (HIMS) is believed to potentially break above $20, even though it has seen a staggering 76.18% decline over the year, trading around $15 to $16, reflecting a mix of investor optimism and inherent risks regarding its recovery prospects.
- Blue Owl Capital Concerns: Blue Owl Capital (OWL) faces investor concerns over withdrawal limits, with current trading between $11 to $13 and a 49.87% annual decline, yet it maintains a solid growth score, suggesting potential investment opportunities amidst the challenges.
- Walmart Market Performance: Walmart (WMT) is viewed as a catalyst for a rotation back into tech stocks, trading around $124 to $125 with a 28.45% annual return, demonstrating relative strength in a volatile market environment.
See More
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- Market Rally: Major U.S. indexes experienced a rebound after the Supreme Court struck down former President Trump's tariff regime, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq posting modest gains despite soft GDP growth and persistent inflation, indicating market sensitivity to policy uncertainty.
- Tariff Policy Risk: The Court's 6-3 ruling invalidated broad tariffs, easing cost pressures for importers; however, Trump immediately indicated plans for a new 10% global tariff, leaving markets grappling with ongoing trade policy risks.
- Economic Data Impact: Despite the rally following the tariff ruling, disappointing 1.4% GDP growth and elevated core inflation figures kept investor sentiment cautious, contributing to underperformance in small caps and reflecting a trend of rotation out of risk assets.
- Future Outlook: Investors are preparing for upcoming tech earnings and economic indicators that could shape the Federal Reserve's policy outlook, maintaining a cautious stance as they await new data and corporate results.
See More
